“Dear Donald and Melania Trump, Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!”
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted this message on X well before Trump crossed the finishing line. “Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”
He signed off, Benjamin and Sara Netanyahu.
The statement speaks for itself. Having more or less subdued its regional adversaries, Netanyahu’s somewhat fawning is an insurance policy for the future. The other war leader backed by the US, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, lacks the chutzpah to celebrate Trump’s victory as it bodes uncertainty for Ukraine’s war against Russia, which is already going badly for Kyiv.
Israel is in the Wrong. Period.
Given America’s status as the foremost world power, Donald Trump’s massive victory will have global implications. His approach to foreign and security policy is not traditional. It is highly personalised.
But we know that his focus is going to be largely domestic. Indeed, one of the tenets of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement is its disdain for the US’ foreign entanglements.
In line with this, in his previous term, Trump pulled up NATO and US allies like Japan and South Korea, for using American largesse to enhance their security. There should be no doubt that in European capitals, Tokyo and Seoul, there are a lot of worried people right now.
Mind you, what Trump did then, may be very different from the positions he takes now. But that is part of the persona of a highly mercurial and erratic man who is again the president of the United States.
Ukraine and the Middle East will willy-nilly be affected by Tuesday’s effective landslide and the leaders of both countries know that. While Israel is cushioned by the victory and past knowledge of Trump’s favourable attitude towards it, Ukraine has little to celebrate.
The Middle East
As far as the Middle East is concerned, Trump has, in his first term, taken decisions without any concern about the fallout. The most dramatic of these was the walking away from the Iran Nuclear Deal, the policy of “maximum pressure” on Tehran through economic sanctions, and persistent opposition to any negotiations on the nuclear front.
A strong pro-Israel stance will be central to Trump’s policy. After all, it was in his previous administration that the US recognised Jerusalem as the Israeli capital and shifted its embassy to the city. He also sought to assist Tel Aviv by pushing the Abraham Accords aimed at normalising ties between the Arab countries and Israel.
Throughout the ongoing conflict, the Biden administration strongly supported Israel, though it has occasionally chided it for its disregard for civilian casualties and human rights. Under Biden, the US actually participated in the aerial war to counter the Iranian missile onslaught in April and was ready to do so again in October.
Trump might be more careful in getting the US involved in the actual war fighting in the region, even while strongly backing Israel.
As it is, the Saudi-Israel deal, also promoted by Trump in 2020, remains stuck on the former’s demand that any agreement must include serious consideration for Palestinian statehood. Israel's war in Gaza and Lebanon has made any possible deal somewhat distant.
The Saudis are now negotiating a defence pact with the US minus the Israel connection. But any such deal would require its ratification by two-thirds of the US Senate. Though Trump will have a strong hand in dealing with a Republican Congress, a two-thirds Senate ratification is a political challenge.
Trump has maintained warm relations with Saudi Arabia, and his administration could move on this issue, but the Israel connection and Palestinian issues will have to be factored in.
Overall, Trump’s Middle East policy will see strong relations between the US and Israel, as well as the US and the Gulf states, while maintaining a hardline stance against Iran. He will, however, favour transactional diplomacy over comprehensive peace initiatives.
But whether it will also mesh with Netanyahu’s plans for a total victory in Israel’s war against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran is something that only time will tell. The Times of Israel has reported that Trump has repeatedly told Netanyahu that he wants Israel to wrap up the war in Gaza by the time he assumes office, which, of course, is still two-and-a-half months away, i.e., 20 January.
Eastern Europe
As for Ukraine, the situation is grim.
Trump's victory, at the very least, signals a shift in US policy, which has, till now, backed Kyiv with military equipment and diplomatic support. This comes at a bad time for Ukraine, given the significant Russian advances in its territory in recent months. Diplomatic efforts are on by many countries, including India, to find a way to a negotiated settlement between Moscow and Kyiv.
Trump has criticised Zelenskyy and said sarcastically that “every time Zelensky comes to this country, he walks away with $60 billion.” Clearly, Ukraine will find it difficult to persuade the US to continue funding its efforts. Both Trump and Vice-President-elect JD Vance are sceptical about spending more in Ukraine.
Kyiv is worried that Trump’s promise to end the war in a day could involve diplomatic moves that would compel the Ukrainians to make territorial concessions. The Zelenskyy government is dead set against anything of the sort.
Trump has a good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but whether he could actually cut through the geopolitical tangle to come up with a viable peace plan in quick time is another matter.
Trump has had harsher words to say about NATO countries, and once even suggested that he would encourage Russia to attack them if they did not increase their defence spending. NATO countries have scrambled to “Trump-proof” their organisation by strengthening their defence pledges along with spending.
Trump has long boasted about his relationship with the Russian president and, as recently as last month, declared that he “got along great with Putin.” In his recent book, Bob Woodward claimed that Trump kept in touch with Putin by telephone after he left office in 2021.
But the Russian reaction to Trump's victory has been cautious. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he was not aware of any plans that President Putin had to congratulate Trump. However, Newsweek, citing a Russian news outlet, reported that Putin congratulated Trump through “mutual friends.” Peskov added that what happens next “depends on the American leadership” and that “President Putin is open to constructive dialogue.”
In conclusion, there are too many unknowns about Trump’s second term—his advisers, his priorities, and the reaction on the ground in the Middle East and Ukraine. At the end of the day, the proof of the pudding will be in its eating.
(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion article and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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