The Ukraine-Russia War is Fuelling a Global Food Crisis

Together, they account for approximately 30 percent of global wheat exports and 20 percent of maize exports.

A few months ago I had embarked on a five-week journey through eleven countries in West Africa—places on no one’s bucket list.

In Guinea-Bissau, Gambia, and Sierra Leone, I encountered teary-eyed mothers and fathers, their voices trembling as they begged me to take away their babies, to give them a chance at life beyond the crushing grip of poverty and hunger. The sheer desperation and heart-wrenching conditions in these regions left me deeply shaken. 

In Africa, where many countries rely on wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia, the impact of the conflict has been particularly severe. Countries already grappling with conflict and drought, have seen food prices skyrocket, pushing millions more into hunger. 

In developed countries, the food security and food inflation scenario is equally grim. I have just returned from a two-week trip to Canada and US. In Ottawa, an Afghan taxi driver, a former politician in the Karzai government, said that three years ago 200 Canadian dollars would buy him enough vegetables, fruits and meat to last two to three weeks. Now, it would hardly last a week. “In the coming elections, the incumbent government will surely lose on the issue of food inflation,” he said.

In New York, a Palestinian taxi driver, a qualified doctor from the West Bank, said: “I have been in the US for 30 years. The food prices were always stable. Their rise was hardly noticeable. But in the last three years, they have gone up 30 percent!” 

In Japan, households are feeling the strain of rising food prices. In 2023, the country's core consumer price index recorded the fastest rise in over four decades, with food prices being a primary driver. Fumio Kishida's decision to step down as prime minister was partly due to public anger over surging prices.

India too has experienced significant food inflation over the past two years. In 2023, prices of key staples like cereals and pulses rose sharply — up to 13 percent and 11.9 percent respectively. Vegetables fared worse, with prices increasing as high as 37.4 percent. Tomatoes saw price increases of over 200 percent during peak months. 

The Ukraine-Russia war, which erupted in February 2022, has been a significant factor in the global rise of food inflation and food insecurity. Ukraine and Russia, often referred to as the world’s breadbaskets, are pivotal players in the global agricultural market. Together, they account for approximately 30 percent of global wheat exports, 20 percent of maize exports, 29 percent of barley and 75 percent of sunflower oil.

Ukraine supplies nearly half of the cereal imports for Lebanon and Tunisia, while for Libya and Egypt, the figure rises to about two-thirds. Its agricultural exports are crucial, providing enough food to sustain 400 million people globally. 

The war has led to the destruction of Ukrainian farmlands, agricultural infrastructure, and storage facilities. Millions of Ukrainians have been displaced, resulting in labour shortages. There are not enough hands to plant crops. Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea has compounded the problem, making it difficult for Ukraine to export its grain.

Ukraine's wheat exports declined from 20.5 million tonnes in 2020 to approximately 13 million tonnes by 2023. This sharp drop has significantly reduced the global availability of wheat and other grains, pushing up food prices and causing shortages in numerous countries, especially across Africa and the Middle East.

Though Russia’s production and exports have been robust, the international price of wheat has shot up. The war resulted in higher shipping and insurance costs – as well as fluctuations in global currencies, with many currencies, especially of vulnerable Africa, depreciating against the US dollar.

Since most international food trade is conducted in dollars, the depreciation of local currencies has made food imports even more expensive. Consumers now face higher prices not only due to the scarcity of supplies but also because of the weakened purchasing power of their currencies.

Russia and Belarus are major suppliers of key fertiliser components such as natural gas and potash. Even before the war, fertiliser prices had already soared — doubling or tripling — due to increasing energy and transportation costs. Furthermore, sanctions imposed on Belarus in 2021 for suppressing political opposition further strained global supply, as the country accounts for 18 percent of the world’s potash production.

Now, with Russia, responsible for 20 percent of global output, facing difficulties in exporting its potash due to war-related sanctions, prices have climbed even higher – its adverse effects reverberating across agricultural sectors worldwide.

African farmers, who rely on Russian fertilisers to maintain crop yields, are the worst affected. Spike in prices and shortages of these critical inputs has led to reduced agricultural productivity, further exacerbating food insecurity and driving up the cost of locally produced food.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has sounded an alarm over "the spectre of a global food shortage" that could persist for years. The soaring cost of essential foods has already increased the number of people facing food insecurity by 440 million, bringing the total to 1.6 billion. Of these, nearly 250 million are teetering on the edge of famine.

The Ukraine-Russia war is not only destroying the lives of people on the battlefield – but also across the world.

(Akhil Bakshi, an author and explorer, is a Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society and Explorers Club USA, and Editor of ‘Indian Mountaineer’. He is also the founder of Bharatiya Yuva Shakti, an organisation that ensures good leadership at the village level. He tweets @AkhilBakshi1. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)