What caught political pundits by surprise during the 2023 Assembly election results was the BJP’s (Bharatiya Janata Party) unexpected success in Telangana, not only that it secured eight seats with an increased vote share, but also in terms of its strategic moves.
This outcome, while not a direct claim to power in the state, signifies a well-thought-out plan aimed at reshaping the Telangana's political dynamics and undermining the influence of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) leader and former Chief Minister (CM) K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR).
With the entire top leadership of the BJP including the prime minister, cabinet ministers, and chief ministers from various states, actively campaigning in Telangana, there was widespread anticipation of a saffron surge in the southern state.
Undoubtedly, the morale within the BJP was high.
BJP's Performances Before the Assembly Polls
Despite securing only one seat in the 2018 Assembly elections, the BJP exhibited a remarkable performance in the 2020 Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) elections.
In stark contrast to the previous GHMC election in 2016, where it secured only 4 seats, the party's total tally surged to an impressive 44 in 2020, establishing itself as the second-largest party after the BRS.
Furthermore, the BJP also secured victories in two Assembly seats during the by-elections held in 2021 and 2022.
These triumphs fostered an impression that the BJP was tactically positioning itself to potentially lead the state government or, at the very least, outpace the BRS and the Congress in terms of political influence.
This interpretation didn't emerge in isolation; rather, it was grounded in the BJP's previous victories over the last four years. However, the BJP, cognisant of its current standing in the state, acknowledged the reality that they were not contenders to form the government, nor were they on track to become the largest party in the assembly.
Instead, the party tactically focused on expanding its influence and boosting its vote share, remarkably achieving an increase from 6.98 per cent in 2018 to an impressive 13.90 per cent in 2023.
Was the Real Goal to Decimate BRS?
However, there are those who argue that beneath this seemingly modest objective, there was a hidden agenda — to cause political harm to KCR and his political party.
Numerous right-wing political experts take a broader view and perceive regional parties like the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as posing a greater threat to the nation than the Congress party.
Regional players such as the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Samajwadi Party (SP), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray, among others, are perceived similarly.
The argument is that that the linguistic and caste-driven politics adopted by regional parties present a significant obstacle to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah's political agenda.
The BJP’s extensive and high-dimensional campaign strategy in Telangana has effectively achieved two important objectives in this regard.
Firstly, it successfully halted further hemorrhaging of votes to KCR, thereby preventing it from acquiring any further support base. Additionally, the BJP campaign significantly strengthened its own vote bank, positioning the party as a formidable contender and the second-largest political force in the state's opposition.
Looking beyond the immediate outcome of the election, several potential consequences could unfold for Telangana and the rest of the country.
Potential Consequences of BJP's Performance
KCR’s Eroded Credibility and Limited Options: The Congress victory not only undermines KCR’s credibility on the national stage but also exposes the erosion of its once-strong reputation in Telangana.
KCR is currently grappling with a challenging situation where he has very few alternatives and must carefully consider whether or not to become part of the 'INDIA' alliance, a decision that could potentially put his political future at risk.
Strategic Manoeuvrings for the BJP: The BJP is likely to employ tactics to influence KCR into aligning with the agendas of Modi and Shah, even without formally joining the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Legal Vulnerability for KCR’s Family: There is considerable speculation regarding the possibility of legal complications that could arise for KCR’s family, particularly his daughter Kavitha. Such conjecture highlights the potential for political implications that could be triggered by these legal vulnerabilities.
Strategic Advantage in Delhi: The potential arrest of KCR’s daughter in the Delhi Liquor Excise Policy Scam is perceived as an advantage for Modi-Shah, as it presents them with another opportunity to effectively disempower Delhi CM and AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal.
BJP’s Strategic Advantage for Future Elections: Dislodging the Congress from any state is a more feasible task for the BJP compared to challenging a regional party. With this in mind, the BJP may devise a comprehensive plan to secure a resounding victory in the 2028 Assembly election in Telangana.
To summarise, the BJP’s unexpected victory in Telangana reveals a well-thought-out plan to reshape the state’s political landscape, aiming for both immediate gains and long-term dominance.
The initial assertions of winning the election made by senior BJP leaders during their election campaigns were essential to create an aura of euphoria to channel votes away from KCR, and to manufacture a sense of excitement towards the BJP. And the rest was an intricate strategy consisting of carefully calculated moves to achieve broader, long-term goals.
(The author is an Assistant Professor at the Hamdard Institute of International Studies, Jamia Hamdard University, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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