For the BJP, the elections to the Lok Sabha are crucial, and Tamil Nadu assumes significance as it has stitched together a major alliance to try and win as many seats as possible. But for the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) as well as its main opposition, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), it is the by-elections to the 18 assembly constituencies, that assume greater importance.
In the general elections this year, Tamil Nadu goes to the polls in the second round, on 18 April, to elect 39 members to the Lok Sabha.
What DMK-Congress Combine Needs to Win
The last time ‘round, under the late chief minister J Jayalalithaa, the ruling AIADMK won 37 of these seats. The party either supported the BJP in parliament or abstained from voting, proving invaluable to the Modi government. Just as Prime Minister Modi needs the AIADMK to win a good many seats from Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK will need the Modi magic to win them the assembly seats it so badly needs to win.
This is because the AIADMK is surviving in a 234-member assembly with an effective strength of just 108. Though on paper it has 114 members, three of them are Independents who contested on the party symbol, and three others who have crossed over to the rebel Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam led by Sasikala’s nephew TTV Dinakaran.
There are 21 vacancies in the House, following the disqualification of 18 MLAs who defected and three others who died. So the effective strength of the House has been reduced to 211. Now the DMK-Congress front has a strength of 97 in the state assembly. It needs to win all 21 seats to enjoy a majority and form the government. It is enough if the AIADMK wins 8 more seats to retain its majority.
A Big Fight Without the Big Guns
The DMK’s frustration stems from the fact that by-elections are being held only for 18 seats. Even if it wins all of them, it cannot win a majority.
Unfortunately there are pending cases in courts with regard to three constituencies. The DMK has approached the Election Commission asking for those three seats to also be included in the by-elections. Because of this issue, both the DMK and the AIADMK have been generous in giving away Lok Sabha seats to allies, but they will both be contesting all the 18 seats to the assembly.
Both the Dravidian parties lost their leaders in the run up to these elections. Jayalalithaa died in 2016 and the DMK leader M Karunanidhi died in 2018. While Karunanidhi's son MK Stalin assumed leadership of his party, Jayalalithaa's senior minister E K Palaniswami is now the chief minister.
It will be a fight without the big guns. Post Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK split and 18 MLAs walked over to TTV Dinakaran’s side, leading to the founding of the AMMK, of which Jayalalithaa’s aide Sasikala, now undergoing a four-year sentence in a Bengaluru jail, is the general secretary. That led to the disqualification of these legislators, and hence the by-elections now.
Basically, all these 18 seats were held by the AIADMK. But because the MLAs changed loyalty, they were disqualified. The strange development was that Dinakaran was able to win the Radhakrishnan Nagar assembly by-election, defeating both the AIADMK and the DMK. This constituency was represented by Jayalalithaa. The DMK even lost its deposit in this controversial election, where money allegedly played a major role.
Election Issues for AIADMK & DMK
Though the AIADMK claims to have its cadres strongly behind the party, it has no mass leader or a charismatic vote-catcher like the late MGR or Jayalalithaa. So it will be a test for the current collective leadership to win elections without their icons.
Similarly, Stalin's leadership and popularity will be put to test without the oratory of his late father and leader Karunanidhi. If it was just the assembly election, he could have had a better hold on the electorate.
The AIADMK did well to combine by-elections with the parliamentary polls and going to the people with the ‘umbrella’ of Prime Minister Modi. But Stalin is still hoping that given his continuing attack on alleged corruption in the state, the voters will favour him.
While the AIADMK front will focus on national issues, the IAF air strikes and the need to continue with the Jayalalithaa (Amma) government, the DMK is planning to take on Modi, protection of minorities and ‘corruption’ in the AIADMK regime.
Chief Minister Palaniswami distributed Rs 1,000 to all families as a gift for 'Pongal' and recently announced another gift of Rs 2,000 to families below the poverty line. The results on 23 May will not only decide who forms the government at the Centre, but also if the ruling AIADMK regime can survive its full tenure till 2021.
(Chennai-based V Jayanth is a former managing editor of The Hindu. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same)
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