(This two-part explainer is drawn from a recent study undertaken by the InfoSphere team at the Centre for New Economics Studies, OP Jindal Global University. For details on the Access Inequality Index (AEI) report, please see here.)
With the national elections less than a year away, key state assembly polls have stirred a political storm across regional and national parties contesting for power across five states: Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan.
From the incumbent national party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), making promises of setting up an 'Entrepreneurial Northeast’ scheme to providing financial support to Northeastern MSMEs, to the Indian National Congress's (INC's) Gehlot government in Rajasthan announcing 1 lakh jobs to curb unemployment, to the Prime Minister’s announcement of extending the free ration scheme of PMGKAY for another five years, populist announcements made by parties on welfare grounds for electoral reasons remain in full swing.
As argued by one of the authors more recently, State Assembly Elections, from West Bengal, UP, Kerala to Karnataka in recent year(s) saw how the electoral appeal of religious polarisation had withdrawn to give way to the successful implementation (or pitch of) welfare schemes aimed that changing/affecting the lives of the poor and those living at the margins amidst greater economic insecurity surfacing from rising unemployment, inflation, and household debt (in a post-covid landscape).
Given how addressing core economic issues have remained the key focus of party manifestos, understanding the ground economic realities of the five states considering the ongoing assembly elections deserves much attention.
Labelling States Based On Socio-Economic Services
Using our Access (In)Equality Index, which ranks different states and union territories across India in terms of access to basic social and economic services, this article, in a first of two parts, categorises and explains the performance of states: Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan while labeling them into ‘Aspirants’, 'Achievers’ and 'Front Runners’, and examines the economic issues facing them (see here for information on each of the labels).
Access (In)Equality Index is a multidimensional index that takes into account the household/individual inequality across all states and union territories in terms of access to key opportunities.
According to the principles of basic 'access equity’ ensured in the Rawlsian philosophical tradition – built upon by Amartya Sen in his work on the 'capability approach to human development’, basic social and economic opportunities should be open to all, and everyone should have a fair chance of attaining them.
India’s constitutionally safeguarded fundamental rights allow for this too. However, it is left to the states to decide the proportionality and administerial governance of how 'access equity’ in education, healthcare, basic amenities, social security, employment guarantee, and financial security, can be all ensured.
‘Inequality of Opportunity’
However, recent discourse on inequality studies has claimed that inequality of opportunity may result from factors that are beyond an individual’s control. Most of the work on inequality studies have focused on wealth inequality, thus, neglecting the fact that inequality is not only limited to income but also access to other opportunities.
The AEI framework, focusing on the spatial dimension, therefore, measures to what extent the Indian states and UTs distribute essential social and economic services to all, given that inequality of opportunity and uneven distribution are often mutually reinforced.
The Access (In)Equality Index is vital for understanding the economic impact on citizens' well-being. It uses a holistic approach that reflects social inclusion, human capital development, and labour force engagement, crucial for economic growth.
States with lower access inequalities attract investor confidence, indicating good governance and social stability. In essence, the index provides nuanced insights into how economic development translates into tangible benefits for diverse populations, emphasising the need for inclusive policies to ensure equitable access across essential domains.
The index assesses the performances of the states in terms of access to five main pillars:
Access to Basic Amenities
Access to Education
Access to Healthcare
Access to Socio-economic Security
Access to Justice (Legal Recourse)
The index’s analytical framework, therefore, takes a multidimensional approach and examines access in terms of five pillars: education, healthcare, basic amenities, socio-economic security, and justice. Each of these pillars is crucial for achieving equitable and sustainable economic growth and development.
Composite Ranking of States As Per Each Pillar
Based on the score range of 0.67-0.23, the Access (In)Equality Index Report classifies Indian states into ‘Aspirants’, ‘Achievers’, and ‘Front Runners’, by assessing their performance across key pillars of access inequality.
These pillars include parameters related to basic amenities, education, health, justice, and socio-economic security.
The states categorised under Aspirants, are at the lowest end of the spectrum with an index score below 0.33. The Achievers represent the states that have an average index score ranging from 0.33 to 0.42. While there is still potential for development, they are in a more advantageous position compared to aspirants. Finally, front runners refer to the states that have achieved the highest level of performance, indicated by an index score beyond 0.42.
While Madhya Pradesh falls under the ‘Aspirants’ category, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh fall under the ‘Achievers’ category and Telangana and Mizoram are the ‘Front runners’.
We spend a significant part in the second part of this series breaking down the composite rankings to see the pillar-wise performance for each identified state.
Madhya Pradesh
With a composite index score of 0.32, the state of Madhya Pradesh falls under the 'Aspirants’ category. In terms of the index, the overall performance of the state is weaker than all the four other states going for the polls.
The state of Madhya Pradesh is majorly dependent on agriculture, with the largest share of 47 percent of its GSDP. The services and manufacturing sectors which account for 34 and 19 percent respectively, have not been incentivised.
This majorly contributed to the unemployment in the region as the number jumped from 25.8 lakh in April 2022 to 39 lakh at present. Most of the unemployed belong to the OBC category, thus, reflecting the disproportionate access to socio-economic security. The price rise in goods from seeds to petrol, has further led to despair.
Rajasthan
According to the Access (In)Equality Index performative measure, the state of Rajasthan has a composite index of 0.37 and is, therefore, categorised under the ‘Achievers’ category. While in terms of the poll-bound states, it is performing better than Madhya Pradesh, it still lags against other states like Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram.
While CM Ashok Gehlot, in his speech on the 9 November mentioned that his government has worked on several domains including unemployment and inflation, the two continue to remain persistent concerns for the voters of Rajasthan.
The state’s own unemployment rate is three times higher than the national average of 7.8 percent, and is the second state with the highest unemployment rate after Haryana. Furthermore, the disproportionate access to water also remains a critical issue in the poll-bound state of Rajasthan.
Chhattisgarh
With a composite index of 0.38, according to the Access (In)Equality Index, Chhattisgarh is an ‘Achiever’ state. It has a higher index score compared to states in the aspirant category, but further improvement in providing access to its people to basic socio-economic goods and services can enable its potential transition to the Front runner category.
Chhattisgarh has been the top-performing state in controlling inflation in the financial year 2023 and also has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country.
However, given that the state has majorly focused on ensuring social sector spending, infrastructure development, in terms of the development of roads and other infrastructure, has been an issue in the state. The state also has per capita income lower than the national average by almost Rs15,000 a year.
Mizoram
According to AEI performance rankings, Mizoram has a composite index of 0.46 and is, therefore, a 'Front runner’ state. The economy of Mizoram has been experiencing impressive growth and is primarily driven by the tertiary sector. It is one of the two states going for the state elections that have per capita income higher than the national average.
Despite its steady economic growth, unemployment in the state remains a grave concern. Moreover, the inflation rate has increased from 2.5% in 2018-19 to 4.47% in 2023.
Telangana
With a composite index of 0.49, the state of Telangana is the best-performing state out of all poll-bound states, according to the Access (In)Equality Index. Telangana has garnered much attention as one of the wealthiest states.
However, with 15.1 percent, the youth unemployment rate of the state is more than the national average. Moreover, the state has recently been experiencing difficulty in keeping up with the promises of providing aid programs including the Dalit Bandhu and Rythu Bandhu schemes.
The Contesting Developmental Models and Political Economy Visions
As argued by Political Observer and Journalist Ajoy Ashirwad more recently: “Over the last decade, the Modi-led BJP has emerged as a symbolic force behind large-scale infrastructure development and Hindutva-driven cultural renaissance in India. All the decisions taken by the prime minister in favor of the poor – like the Ujjwala LPG scheme, PM Awas Yojana, or even the Garib Kalyan Yojana which provides free ration – pale in front of his government’s big infrastructure work. Of course, these schemes have done wonders for the BJP electorally in the short term but the prime minister’s biggest draw among his supporters is that of a futuristic, visionary leader who can help India become a developed nation by 2047. In other words, big infrastructure development is Brand Modi’s biggest USP”.
As we get into the state assembly elections, how will Brand Modi’s big infra-vision push perform in a challenge against the regional and opposition parties’ own welfarist agenda, based (in some cases) on the performance evaluation of the incumbent (say Congress in Rajasthan) on different socio-economic indicators, one might not know till all the votes are counted.
While such metrics alone may not determine the direction in which most of the electorate votes, it does play a role in shaping the results of the final vote tally-as some of the recent election results (say, in Karnataka, West Bengal, Kerala) have shown. To what extent the existing socioeconomic determinants might play a role in the upcoming state assembly elections, we take a closer look at these numbers in a breakdown discussion of AEI pillar-wise performance metrics (for each state) in the next article.
(Deepanshu Mohan is a Professor of Economics and Director, Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES), Jindal School of Liberal Arts and Humanities, O.P Jindal Global University. Samragnee Chakraborty is a Senior Research Analyst (CNES) and Aryan Govindakrishnan is a Research Intern with CNES. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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