Constitutional Crisis in UP? It All Depends on SP Camps’ War Plans

A constitutional crisis imminent in UP with Mulayam, Akhilesh caught in a slugfest, writes Alok Prasanna Kumar

The palace intrigue currently going on in Uttar Pradesh is a hallmark of despotic monarchies. A father and son struggling for power, with attendant uncles, cousins, nephews, wives and daughters ranging themselves either with the patriarch or the scion seems like something straight out of the Mahabharata. It isn't even entirely unprecedented in contemporary India.

HD Kumaraswamy defied his father HD Deve Gowda to extend support to the BJP after breaking an alliance with the Congress to become the chief minister of Karnataka in 2006. The fall of the Congress-JDS alliance and the swearing-in of the BJP-JDS in Karnataka did not involve the imposition of President's Rule. As morally dubious as Kumaraswamy and JDS’ actions were, they didn't necessarily cause a constitutional crisis.

The present situation in Uttar Pradesh, where the Samajwadi Party enjoys a simple majority in the Vidhan Sabha, could still result in a constitutional crisis in one of two possible ways. Depending on who strikes first, Mulayam or Akhilesh, we could see different scenarios playing out.

If Mulayam Strikes First

Bringing matters to a head, Mulayam could expel Akhilesh from the party, call for a meeting of the Samajwadi Party Legislative Party and ask them to choose another CM. If Akhilesh refuses to resign, Governor Ram Naik could ask him to prove his majority on the floor of the house. The Samajwadi Party could then issue a whip to its MLAs to vote in favour of the no-confidence motion.

At this point, we'll find out the exact nature of support for Akhilesh among the MLAs -- how many of them are likely to defy the party whip and vote for him. It will determine who comes out as the winner. The possibility of disqualification by the Speaker will hardly be a factor with Assembly elections due in next few months. If Akhilesh wins despite the whip, he'll still continue as the CM, even though disqualification proceedings may begin against the MLAs.

Also Read: NTR in 1995, Mulayam in 2016: How Political Ambitions Fuel a Coup

If Mulayam Takes Over as CM

If all the SP MLAs support another candidate for CM (Mulayam or his nominee), the Governor could then swear in this other person as CM for the remaining term of the Government, and ask him or her to prove majority on the floor of the House.

If no one is able to prove that they enjoy the support of a majority in the Vidhan Sabha, the Governor could send a report to the Centre asking for the imposition of President's Rule, dissolving the Assembly and calling for early elections in UP.

Also Read: Mulayam’s Younger Son, the “Non-Political” Pehelwan, Prateek Yadav

If Akhilesh Strikes First

As chief minister, Akhilesh could recommend that the Vidhan Sabha be dissolved by the Governor, and fresh elections be held earlier than the scheduled date. As Chief Minister, it is his prerogative to call for fresh elections, at any time before the completion of the term of five years. The Governor would be bound to agree to this advice and dissolve the House, calling for fresh elections in the process.

There is a possibility that the Governor could, instead of calling for fresh elections, demand that Akhilesh prove his majority in the House first. This would precipitate a constitutional crisis as the Governor would be acting in contravention of the well settled law on the basis of which he is bound to act on the Chief Minister’s advice. Unless a larger section of the Samajwadi Party sends letters to the Governor indicating they no longer support the Chief Minister (in which case Akhilesh would have acted in haste and poor judgement), the Governor would not be justified in refusing to follow the Chief Minister’s recommendation to dissolve the House.

At this point, once early elections are announced, Akhilesh could float a new party or attempt to wrest control of the Samajwadi Party from Mulayam. If Akhilesh floats a new party, he will run into one problem: Allotment of a common symbol for his party candidates. The Election Commission rules allow only recognised political parties to have common symbols in all constituencies, and it'll be a struggle for Akhilesh’s new party to find a symbol that it'll be able to lay claim on in every single constituency it is contesting.

Battle in Court

On the other hand, he could try to wrest control of the Samajwadi Party by expelling Mulayam and others opposed to him, engaging in a bitter and protracted court battle, such as the one which Jayalalithaa undertook to take control of the AIADMK after the death of MG Ramachandran. If he is successful he will have full control of the party and shape it, as he sees fit without having to float an alternate outfit.

Unless a dramatic reconciliation takes place between father and son, UP is headed for one of these two situations. While both don't necessarily lead to a constitutional crisis, they do however remind us of the feudal, near monarchical manner in which state governments are run in India. That such palace intrigues, rather than democratic support, could be the basis for the fall of a government suggests that India is a long way away from being counted among the ranks of mature democracies.

(The writer is a Visiting Fellow at Vidhi Centre for Legal Policy. He can be reached at @alokpi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

Also Read: Split Wide Open? Mulayam-Akhilesh Feud Reaches Point of No Return