Is the ruling Samajwadi Party of Uttar Pradesh headed for a vertical split? The way things are going, this seems to be the direction in which the party is headed. On one side are the old guard led by party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav, his brother Shivpal and Amar Singh. UP CM Akhilesh Yadav, supported by Mulayam’s cousin Ram Gopal and his team of young Turks, are on the other side of the battle line.
It is really an intriguing tale of party members scoring numerous self-goals one after another. And the fact that all this is unfolding in the presence of a veteran politician like Mulayam is indeed quite baffling. Given the performance of the party under the leadership of young Akhilesh, what is happening now seems to be nothing less than political harakiri.
Insiders insist that the trump card in this game of thrones lies with Mulayam Singh Yadav. The party boss, they say, is still closely watching to see of who blinks first. It will be Mulayam who will ultimately decide the fate of the party and who goes which way. The old war horse, it is said, has still kept some tricks up his sleeve and is waiting for the right time to dole them out.
But as of now, bitterness between the two warring camps is the harsh reality of the political scenario in the state. Battle lines seem to have been clearly drawn between the father and son camps. Akhilesh has already hired Steve Jarding, a lecturer in public policy at Harward University, to chalk out his poll campaign. A 30-member team appointed by Jarding is working round the clock to finalise the election strategy for the CM.
Jarding, an educator, lecturer, writer and political consultant, has been part the faculty at Harvard since 2004. He has also been teaching at the IESE Business School in Madrid, Spain. Jarding is a founding partner of international consulting firm SJB Strategies International, which advises election candidates and causes around the world.
Akhilesh's election war room is fully functional at the Lohia Ke Log office at the Janeshwar Mishra Trust premises in Lucknow. Here, the CM is often seen flanked by members of his youth brigade. These include some sitting MLAs and MLCs who were shown the door from the party by Akhilesh's bete noire Shivpal, who also holds the post of party state president.
Akhilesh, these days, is not mincing words while describing how much he is pained due to the ongoing rift in the party and moreover, on not getting support from his father. He went on record to say that he was ready to go into the election campaign alone. Comparing himself with an in-form batsman, he said that the voter of the state is aware of his batting capabilities. He could not hide his pain while saying that he has always been alone in life and even chose his name ‘Akhilesh’ himself (as his father was always away).
Mulyam, on the other hand, is also not someone who will take accusations from his son lying down. He was quick to retort that how can a small boy who does not know anything about worldly affairs name himself. To add insult to injury, he defiantly said that the next Chief Minister of the state would be decided by the party’s legislative party. He was quick to add that the people of the state had voted for him and he was the person who decided to make Akhilesh the chief minister. In just two sentences, Mulayam snatched the entire credit of being the chief minister from his son.
It is a fact that being the president of the party’s state unit, Shivpal will be calling the shots when it comes to selecting candidates for the coming elections. The strained relations between uncle and nephew leave no space for Akhilesh to get the names of his young brigade and own team into this list.
Akhilesh seems to be left with only one option – to part ways with the old guard and form his own party. Of late, he has been seen to be soft on Congress and Rahul Gandhi. The latter has also been full of praise for the young chief minister of the state. These signals suggest a new pre-poll alliance in Uttar Pradesh politics.
Nitish Kumar's Janta Dal (United) is already trying to make inroads in the state with an alliance with Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal and RK Chaudhary's Bahujan Sangarsh Morcha. Janta Dal (United) is certainly watching every minute movement in the politics of the state very carefully.
When contacted, Chief General Secretary and National Spokesperson of the Janata Dal (United), K C Tyagi, said that their alliance is indeed trying to form a non-BJP government in the state. When asked who their alliance would prefer to go with in case the Mulayam-Akhilesh duo chose to part ways, Tyagi said it would be really unfortunate if that happens. He chose to refrain from answering further questions on this topic.
Between all this, other political parties are indeed keeping a close watch on the ever-changing political situation in the state. The way things are going within the party a vertical split so far seems to be inevitable. And if this happens, this could change the dynamics and arithmetic of UP politics. Earlier, there were four key players - BJP, BSP, SP and Congress. This could lead to formation of a fifth and formidable front, leaving political parties struggling to get the changed caste arithmetic right for selecting candidates in each of the 403 seats in the state.
(The writer is a freelance TV journalist.)
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)