Russia’s Snub Leaves Question of Nuclear Disarmament Unanswered

Nuclear Security Summit left question of reducing military and civilian stockpiles, unanswered, by Gurmeet Kanwal.

The four men moved slowly through the Dorah Pass on the Durand Line that links Chitral district in Khyber-Pakhtoonkhwa of Pakistan with Badakhshan province of Afghanistan. Located in the Pamir region of the Wakhan Corridor, it was the route taken by Marco Polo. The terrain in the northern Hindukush Mountains is as tough as that in the Himalayas. As physical interception was difficult, during the long fight with the Soviets, the Afghan Mujahideen had been able to move arms and ammunition freely through the Dorah Pass.

The fighters belonging to an affiliate of the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Muhammadi (TNSM) knew very well that negotiating the 14,000-feet-high (4,300 metres) Dorah Pass stealthily was not going to be easy and had trained hard for the journey. They kept the Pass in sight, but stayed 500 metres away on a track on its northern shoulder. They did not expect Pakistani border guards to be awake and patrolling at 3.30 am. But if they were challenged, they were well armed and knew what to do.

These men had no idea of the contents of the small bag that they had been given to carry. They had been warned not to open the metal-encased container. They were told that it was an important assignment that would help to give a boost to the flagging Jihad. They were also told that they would be paid well. $1,000 each was a lot of money and each one of them had given deep thought to what he would do with the bounty.

They got through the Pass safely and sat down to get some rest. Soon they would encounter provincial border guards on the Afghan side, but safe passage would merely mean that some money would need to change hands. Three days later, the package was safely delivered to the ISIS or Daesh chief of Khorasan somewhere in the Nangarhar province. Several not-so-quiet celebrations followed.

The intelligence agencies did not take long to discover the cause for celebration. As the new US President entered the White House after being sworn in on a cold and bleak morning in January 2017, the CIA Director was waiting anxiously to brief him. “Mr President,” he said as soon as they reached the Oval office, “The ISIS militia has got hold of eight kilogrammes of weapons-grade uranium smuggled out of the Kahuta nuclear complex in Pakistan.”

Unfulfilled Objectives

• At the Nuclear Security Summit, the US President warned world leaders that the threat to nuclear safety is real.
  
• North Korea and Pakistan were not explicitly named as possible sources of nuclear warhead or fissile material.
  
• Fear persists over use of dirty nukes or highly explosive devices by Jihadi extremists in Europe, US or even India.
  
• President Putin’s absence robbed the summit of some of its credibility; Russia has large, undisclosed stockpile of nuclear materials.
  
• Summit’s score card is a mixed one.
  

Nuclear Terrorism

During the Nuclear Security Summit that he hosted at Washington on 1 April 2016, President Obama asked the press to leave and then showed a few videos depicting plausible scenarios pertaining to nuclear terrorism. The scenario described above could have been one of them.

The US President warned the 50-plus world leaders gathered for the summit to not be complacent about nuclear safety as the threat of “nuclear terrorism” was a real and evolving threat. He asked them to take note of the efforts being made by the ISIS to acquire a nuclear warhead even as it was losing ground in Syria and Iraq.

Concerns of the international community over ISIS’ plans to acquire nuclear warheads or material for “dirty nukes” have been amplified since the discovery of video footage by a Belgian nuclear official in the apartment of a key member of the ISIS-linked terrorist cell that was behind the deadly Paris and Brussels attacks.

President Obama is bringing together almost 50 countries in the nuclear security summit to not only talk about protecting nuclear materials, but that dangerous section between terrorism and nuclear weapons.

Brett McGurk, Obama’s envoy for the global coalition to counter ISIS 

Sources of Nuclear Materials

Neither North Korea nor Pakistan was explicitly named as a possible source of a nuclear warhead or fissile material to assemble one. However, given the deep reach of radical elements in Pakistan, it is most likely to be the source of both an assembled nuclear warhead and weapons-grade nuclear material despite fairly well established safety and security norms and carefully framed personnel reliability policies (PrP).

However, the most likely scenario is that of a dirty nuke being detonated by Jihadi extremists somewhere in Europe, the US or even India. Dirty nukes are high explosive devices with the core comprising relatively easily available radioactive nuclear material such as Cobalt-60 and similar material used in civilian applications like medical diagnostics. While such devices do not cause horrendous casualties like nuclear warheads, these can pollute the immediate surroundings and create a fear psychosis.

“A terrorist attack with an improvised nuclear device would create political, economic, social, psychological, and environmental havoc around the world, no matter where the attack occurs,” said the US administration statement before the summit.

Unresolved Key Issues

The absence of President Putin robbed the summit of some of its credibility as Russia has a large, undisclosed stockpile of nuclear materials. Though the summit also addressed the issues of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, these were overshadowed by the threat of nuclear terrorism. Strict enforcement of the nuclear deal with Iran and the grave provocation posed by North Korean nuclear warhead and missile tests came in for special mention during the Washington summit. There was inadequate emphasis on declaring military stocks of fissile material and reducing the risk of nuclear accidents. Methods aimed at enhancing the global nuclear security architecture were not given the attention they deserve.

In successive Nuclear Security Summits, it has been the endeavour to create an awareness of the threats of the loss or smuggling of nuclear materials and to enhance international cooperation to deal with them. However, so far the score card is a mixed one as a great deal of effort and expenditure is necessary to secure all nuclear materials and reduce both military and civilian stockpiles.

(The writer is Distinguished Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) and former Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi)

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