There are two important questions that will be raised over Rahul Gandhi’s decision to contest in a second seat from the Wayanad parliamentary seat in northern Kerala. First is, why a second seat? The second, and more important one is, why Wayanad?
A Campaign to Insinuate Congress’ Lack of Confidence in Amethi
The most obvious fallout of the decision to contest a second seat will be an aggressive campaign from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) insinuating that the Congress president is not confident about his chances in Amethi (Uttar Pradesh) where he is the incumbent member of Parliament.
Further, there is speculation that the SP-BSP alliance may field a candidate in Amethi and that would make it a three-way contest between the Congress president, Union minister Smriti Irani of the BJP and an SP-BSP candidate. If this happens then the perception that the decision to contest a second seat was taken out of nervousness in the Nehru family bastion would gain further credibility.
However, in the past, there have been many occasions when top leaders have contested from two seats. For instance, Prime Minster Modi himself, in 2014, contested from Vadodara in (Gujarat) and Varanasi in UP and Indira Gandhi in 1980 contested from Medak (Andhra Pradesh) and Raebareli (UP). Several regional leaders also did the same in Assembly elections.
Despite this history, given the nature of personal attacks that one has witnessed and expects during the 2019 campaign, the issue is bound to be used by the BJP. And, the Congress will have to constantly defend and explain itself. It is not the best thing for the opposition party to have a perception that its leader is not confident of his own seat.
The force of this campaign and perception would depend entirely on whether the prime minister himself will contest only from one seat or choose a second seat. If he decides to contest in two seats, like he did in 2014, the BJP will have no platform to question Rahul Gandhi, but otherwise it would.
Breaking Precedent by Choosing Kerala
In any event, this first fallout would only be a perception issue and the more serious question is why he chose Wayanad in Kerala.
This would be the first time that a member of the Nehru-Gandhi family will contest from Kerala. To date, the family has only chosen Karnataka or Andhra Pradesh when it wanted a safe refuge in south India. Sonia Gandhi contested from Ballari in 1999 and Indira Gandhi from Chickmagalur in 1978 and, as stated earlier, Medak in Andhra Pradesh in 1980.
So, Rahul Gandhi is breaking precedent by going to Kerala. This is important because Kerala is a Congress versus Left front battle and in the larger optics, Rahul seems to be challenging the Left by taking a seat in Kerala.
If he had contested from Karnataka, he would have sent a message of fighting the BJP in south and north India, but now he is taking on the Left and hence not suggesting a national coalition of “secular” forces.
Taking on the Left Parties
The Left parties are extremely worried by the development for many reasons.
First, given its situation in West Bengal, Kerala is their only refuge and Rahul contesting from here could leave the party in a very poor situation. As it is, the Congress-led United Democratic Front seems to have a decisive edge in the 20 seats in Kerala and Rahul contesting from here would make it worse for the Left.
Second, and more importantly, Rahul Gandhi seems to be suggesting that he is not in any major understanding with the Left or regional parties on a broader “secular” platform to defeat Prime Minister Modi. In UP, the Congress is fighting the SP-BSP combine and in south India, it is challenging the Left parties and that shows that there seems to be no electoral understanding. In fact, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has publicly stated, “this shows that Rahul wants to take on the Left parties”.
In fact, there seems to be a growing perception that the Congress is taking on regional forces and the Left parties which challenge the Congress’s position as the principal opponent to the BJP.
There has been a worry in the party that if it does not occupy the principal opposition space, it may lose out in the long run. And, the decision to contest from Wayanad seems to suggest that the Congress is ready to fight both the right and the Left regional players at the same time.
This effectively means that there is no larger secular or ideological coalition to fight the BJP and the Congress is focused on its own revival and will forge a secular coalition only if it is the undisputed leader of it.
A Safe Seat for Congress
There is no doubt that Wayanad is a safe Congress seat. Formed after delimitation in 2009, Wayanad has a very large minority population of settlers in the hilly region. It was won by the Congress in 2014 and though the CPI (ML) has been active in the hills and among the tribal population, it is still a Congress bastion and with the support of the IUML, it is the safest bet for the party.
Interestingly, it falls in a tri-junction of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala, and Rahul Gandhi’s candidature could help the Congress have a pan-south India impact. There is no doubt that it seems like a certain win for the Congress president, but then there are several other seats where the Congress can ensure his victory.
Lack of Secular Coalition Could Help BJP
It is the optics and the larger national narrative that matters. A split between “secular” forces may only help the Bharatiya Janata Party. For instance, there is a feeling that if the Congress and Left fight a fierce battle in Kerala, the BJP could gain an entry into the southern state. Further, this also rules out any tacit understanding with the Left.
Given that parties like the SP-BSP combine in UP, the TMC in West Bengal and even the TDP in Andhra Pradesh do not have an open alliance with the Congress, a tacit understanding under a “secular” umbrella doesn’t seem to have taken shape in 2019.
This may work to the BJP’s advantage and the Congress has further weakened the optics of a “secular coalition” to take on “communal forces” by fielding Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad.
In the end, this decision will certainly send out a feeling that the Congress is taking on both the Left and the right in 2019.
(The writer is an independent journalist. He can be reached @TMVRaghav . This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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