In sharp contrast to 2014, the voter turnout in the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) traditional stronghold in South Kashmir has been marginal, in phase-I of the Lok Sabha elections – and could be worse in the next two phases.
While the key mainstream parties are competing along the lines of the separatist narrative and pulling each other down, boycott calls from separatists, fear of reprisals by militants, peoples’ disenchantment with PDP for its failed coalition with BJP – compounded by the ripple effect of a turmoil created by the Hizbul Mujahideen militant Burhan Wani’s killing in July 2016 – have reduced the current Lok Sabha election to an insipid affair.
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That the fear of the lethal combination of bullets and stones is looming large on many minds is clear enough from the fact that nobody is participating in electioneering in the militant-infested segments like Wachi and Shopian. But Noorabad and Devsar segments – perceived to be militant-free – are poised for brisk polling. As of now, militants haven’t killed anybody, but neither have they withdrawn threats of treating the voters as “traitors” and blinding them with sulfuric acid.
Hub of Militants, Separatists & ‘Pseudo-Separatists’
Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP had not only emerged as the single largest party, winning 25 seats in the Valley’s 46 in the assembly elections of 2014, but had also swept all the three in the Lok Sabha elections that year. As opposed to that, today it is facing an existential threat in the parliamentary elections in Jammu and Kashmir.
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Extremely low voter turnout in the PDP’s traditional stronghold in South Kashmir—comprising Anantnag, Kulgam, Shopian and Pulwama districts—is threatening to dismantle the fortress of the party Mufti Mohammad Sayeed had launched after his exit from the Congress in 1999.
Notwithstanding the elimination of around 400 guerrillas by security forces in the last two years, South Kashmir continues to be the haven of all militant organisations. From Hizbul Mujahideen’s most-wanted Riyaz Naikoo to the Caliphate promoter Zakir Musa, all the key guerrilla commanders operate from here. The Valley’s deadliest car bomb blast, in which over 40 CRPF personnel were killed in February this year, was also executed in South Kashmir.
With the influence of the National Conference (NC) and Congress restricted to six segments in Anantnag and Kulgam districts, it is either the Jamaat-e-Islami and militants, or PDP, that has a substantial concentration in the rest of the constituency. For the first time, the EC has scheduled polling in a constituency in three phases.
Lowest Ever Turnout in PDP’s Bastion
The first phase of the polling in six assembly segments of Anantnag district on Tuesday, 23 April, has made it clear that few voters would turn up in 10 segments in the remaining two phases on 29 April and 6 May. Just six segments with moderate turnout—four in Anantnag and two in Kulgam—could determine the fate of the winner and the losers among 18 contestants in a constituency of 13.92 lakh registered voters.
Of the 5,27,497 electors in Anantnag district, not more than 71,923 turned up to vote on 23 April. With the inclusion of 4,101 migrants, the aggregate turnout was a paltry 13.63 percent.
Minus migrants, it was a dismal 12.85 percent. Segment-wise turnout, including migrants, was 20.37 percent in Pahalgam, 19.50 percent in Kokernag, 17.28 percent in Dooru, 15.10 percent in Shangas, 3.47 percent in Anantnag, and 2.04 percent in Bijbehara.
Bijbehara is the Muftis’ hometown from where Mehbooba started her political career. After 1999, PDP retained this segment in all assembly elections and established a lead over National Conference (NC) in all Lok Sabha elections.
Mufti Sayeed won the assembly elections from the adjoining Anantnag segment in 2008 and 2014. After his death, his daughter and political heir apparent Mehbooba retained this segment with a margin of over 12,000 in June 2016.
Mufti Sayeed won his only Lok Sabha election from none other than Anantnag as a Congress candidate in 1998. Later, PDP retained this parliamentary seat in 2002 and 2014. In all of her assembly elections, Mehbooba won from South Kashmir— Bijbehara (1996), Pahalgam (2002), Wachi (2008), Anantnag (2016). She has never lost an election.
This time around, only 4,909 people have cast their vote in an electorate of 1,79,854 in Bijbehara and Anantnag segments, bringing the turnout down to an unprecedented 2.73 percent at the heart of PDP’s citadel.
NC, Congress Segments Fare Better
The areas which have seen a modest turnout, that is Dooru (17.28 percent), Kokernag (19.50 percent) and Shangas (15.10 percent), are bastions of the Congress and the home segment of the party’s candidate and state president Ghulam Ahmad Mir. Pahalgam (20.37 percent) is NC’s segment. It’s now clear enough that among the 10 remaining segments in the next two phases, only Noorabad and Devsar— both in Kulgam district—will witness a moderate turnout. By these indications, it could be a near-total blank in all the six segments of Shopian and Pulwama districts, which PDP has retained since 2002.
The Congress is hopeful of leads from Dooru, Kokernag, Shangas and Devsar. NC is expecting a substantial edge in Pahalgam and Noorabad—where the turnout could go up to 40-45 percent—as also some bonus in Shangas, Homeshalibug and Pampore.
An Upbeat Omar Says It’s NC vs Congress
“The dismal turnout in Bijbehara and Anantnag assembly segments and low voter turnout in four others is a clear message to PDP and its leadership. They should realise how they treated the state in the past four years, and how much destruction they caused,” NC Vice President and former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah told media on Wednesday.
“Imagine in Anantnag assembly segment, from where Mehbooba Mufti won the 2016 by-elections by 12,000 votes, not even a thousand votes were polled. Even her own brother and sitting MLC Tasaduk Mufti didn’t cast his vote in her favour. If her brother didn’t repose faith in her, how can others,” Abdullah added.
Mehbooba complained to her audiences in Shopian that attempts were being made to ensure that fewer people vote in the Lok Sabha elections.
NC, PDP Competing on Separatist Narrative
For the PDP and Congress, development, employment and the economy aren’t issues; they are competing on the protection of the special Constitutional status of Jammu and Kashmir granted under Article 370 and 35-A. NC has strategically fielded former judge of Jammu and Kashmir High Court, Hasnain Masoodi, known for his judgments in favour of the state’s special status.
Other common planks are the parties’ competitive demands for restoration of the cross-LoC trade, lifting of ban from JKLF and Jamaat-e-Islami, and release of the detained separatist leaders, particularly JKLF chairman Yasin Malik.
‘Partners in Crime’ for Tie-Up with BJP
Both NC and PDP have been berating each other as “partners in crime” to exploit the anti-BJP sentiment they have cultivated in the Valley. Both have been partners in the government with the BJP, even as the NC did not extend this partnership to Jammu and Kashmir. The PDP’s distinct Achilles’ Heel is its 40-month-long association with the BJP, which snatched power away from it as recently as in June 2018.
Over a dozen of its top leaders, including former ministers, MLAs and MLCs, have deserted the party and most of them have joined either the NC or Sajjad Lone’s Peoples Conference (PC) in the last 10 months.
A combination of the militants’ fear, boycott calls from separatists and India-bashing, with competitive promotion of the separatist narratives by mainstream political parties, has made South Kashmir barren for all democratic activities.
Aggregate Turnout in South Kashmir Could Dip to 7-8%
When Prime Minister Narender Modi challenged Pakistan that India had not kept its nuclear arsenal for Diwali, none other than his recent political partner Mehbooba Mufti retorted that Pakistan too had not kept its warheads for Eid.
This kind of rhetorical standoff strengthens only the separatist narratives, making it difficult for the Kashmiris to identify with India through participation in the elections. It leads to boycott, ironically in PDP’s own bastion, where it could have claimed the lion’s share of the vote.
By all indications, the aggregate turnout in South Kashmir could for the first time dip to an unprecedented 7-8 percent. In most of the Lok Sabha elections in Kashmir, the turnout has been remarkably lower than that of the assembly elections. Still, in South Kashmir, it was 28.15 percent in 1998, 14.32 percent in 1999, 15.04 percent in 2004, 27 percent in 2009 and 28.84 percent in 2014.
Post-1987, South Kashmir experienced a bumper in the assembly elections of 2014, when it broke the record of all elections turnout in 27 years. In Anantnag district, which recorded 13.63 percent on 23 April, the turnout was 39.70 percent in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. It was a meteoric 60.38 percent in the assembly elections in 2014, as 3,00,735 votes were polled out of 4,98,041. The segment-wise turnout was 69.72 percent in Pahalgam, 68.38 percent in Shangas, 66.16 percent in Kokernag, 64.99 percent in Dooru, 55.54 percent in Bijbehara and 39.63 percent in Anantnag.
(The writer is a Srinagar-based journalist. He can be reached @ahmedalifayyaz. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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