What is the distance between Washington DC and Patna? No, I don't mean the geographical distance as the crow flies between the two cities but the social and political distance that may determine the outcome of India's general elections in 2024.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's imagery of India emerging as a significant democratic power with economic and technological prowess signals to lovers of a strong and prosperous country the prospects of a stable government with decisive leadership under the Bharatiya Janata Party.
On the other hand, the assembly of leaders of 15 opposition political parties in the capital of one of India's most backward states may well represent the voices and faces of millions of voiceless and faceless people asking a simple question: what is in it for me?
Warding Off a Possible 'Modi Fatigue'
There are no easy answers to whether the opposition unity will translate as a significant electoral victory or whether Modi's razzmatazz after an arguably successful US visit will ensure him a third term in power.
Let's look beyond the obvious optics in both Washington and Patna to get a hopefully accurate picture. Politics is not easy in a nation of 1.5 billion people separated by language, religion, economic status, ecology, culture, and ideology -- and emerging events do shift the moods. That makes it all more complicated.
The big challenge is in warding off a possible "Modi fatigue" that cannot be ruled out for someone who has spent a decade in power with ups and downs including the COVID pandemic, a failed demonetization of high-value notes and a spluttering economy.
Modi's foreign policy wins and micro-welfarist schemes linked to piped water, gas cylinders, and targeted subsidies may have limited utility in the face of a slew of "guarantee raj" initiatives by opposition parties to woo voters through everything from food grains to free electricity and bus travel. The recent success of the opposition Congress in Karnataka state elections may be regarded as a template for opposition parties.
Yet, the aftermath of the Patna meeting is fraught with ground-level challenges that are undeniable.
Translating the Chemistry Into Winning Arithmetic
As a geographically and ideologically diverse set of leaders took the stage at a Patna press conference, their bonhomie was evident as was the courtesy they extended to each other. The positive chemistry was strong because the anti-Modi spirit for them is about adversity generated by his strongman style that undermines democracy, the Constitution, and its underlying principles. Adversity, as the old saying goes, does indeed make for strange bedfellows.
To translate this chemistry into electoral physics and winning arithmetic is a tall order.
We can sidestep the Aam Aadmi Party's de-facto boycott of the opposition conclave on the grounds that the Congress is not playing ball in its efforts to undo an ordinance that curtails Delhi government powers. This is because, with Punjab and Delhi as its influence zones, AAP can at best determine outcomes in a dozen Lok Sabha seats in a 545-member Lok Sabha.
Look beyond that and the opposition still has to cross deep political chasms. As Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge admitted himself in a practical remark, there has to be a state-by-state strategy. This would involve seat adjustments and issues that will become electoral promises -- not to speak of motivating party cadres.
Communist parties in Kerala locally rival Congress, which in turn must contend with the Trinamool Congress in Bengal -- though they all shared the dais in Patna.
In UP Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party is practically left with no ally in substantial parts of the state and has to start practically from scratch against the might of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. And so on.... Every state has a different story.
A Shaky Ground That Needs Nurturing
The toughest part will be in projecting a leader or at least the idea of cohesive leadership although opposition parties in the past have won power without that in 1989 and 1996. Making grassroots party workers seeking local gains to unite with people so far considered rivals in order to uphold a national cause is probably the biggest of them all. High principles and lowest common denominators are not easy to juggle. But that's politics.
Uddhav Thackeray appeared somewhat uncomfortable at Patna as he sat next to leaders whose parties have for decades not seen eye-to-eye with his Shiva Sena's pro-Hindutva ideology that was shaken by tussles in power-sharing.
All this shows a shaky ground needs to be nurtured against BJP's ideological, financial, and manipulative powers playing out through well-oiled election machinery.
The conspicuous absence of the Bahujan Samaj Party, Bharat Rastra Samiti, the YSR Congress, and the Janata Dal (Secular) leaders in Patna is ominous. The Indian National Congress is both a magnet and a repellent to opposition parties, depending on the region.
Opposition parties may not even be in a hurry to show a well-woven electoral fabric because let's face it, Modi's BJP can be expected to throw spanners in the works of opposition unity with the might of its state and party machinery.
What both the opposition and the BJP would be hoping for is for their rivals to make a big mistake. The Patna conclave is best seen more as a gathering to unveil a mission statement than a meeting to outline a strategic blueprint. Backroom huddles are the thing to watch out for in the coming days.
(The writer is a senior journalist and commentator who has worked for Reuters, Economic Times, Business Standard, and Hindustan Times. He can be reached on Twitter @madversity. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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