Pakistan has finally launched its first National Security Policy with much fanfare, though some parts remain classified. The policy document reflects a significant change in the thinking of the ruling elite: it is now accepted that non-traditional security concerns were ignored in the past, human security and geo-economics are at the core of the new policy, no more ‘camp politics’, and there is no precondition of reversing the abrogation of Article 370 for a dialogue with India.
However, on the issue of sub-nationalist movements, the policy document repeated the hackneyed narrative that these movements use disparities to further their agendas. But at least it is accepted that disparities exist. Hybrid warfare is another concern on the minds of security policy formulators.
Human security and geo-economics are the main concerns, but the establishment must not delude itself by thinking that these ambitious targets will be achieved simultaneously with the modernisation of the military, as exposited by the document.
A state that is under heavy economic stress and is getting bailouts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for its survival cannot ignore the ‘gun vs butter’ theory.
Strides in Artificial Intelligence (AI)-related technology and modernisation of the military for a state that is under heavy debt is a pipe dream.
Pakistan Can't Afford to Ignore Its Economy
Prime Minister Imran Khan often talks about China’s success in poverty alleviation.
So, it is crucial to remember that China, for decades, especially since the period of Deng Xiaoping, has focused on economic growth and avoided military confrontations for a long time to develop its economy.
The dream of economic security can be achieved by investing all energies in economic growth, while at the same time maintaining credible nuclear deterrence. Pakistan is a nuclear power state and no country, even nuclear powers, can risk invading it due to the threat of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). Thus, the right approach for Pakistan would be to invest in economic growth for the next few decades without getting embroiled in any conflict.
Learn From EU or ASEAN
To materialise this dream, is Pakistan ready to stop supporting armed groups, given it is still on the FATF grey list? The policy of pursuing ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan and support for India-focused armed groups have not only damaged the country’s relationships with neighbours but have also destroyed regional peace or integration, while also severely affecting the economy.
South Asia has suffered a lot due to conflicts in the region. Why can’t this region learn from the successes of the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN? The countries of these regions have also had serious conflicts and border disputes but they somehow managed to cooperate.
Regional Peace is Important for Both India & Pak
Pakistan’s new foreign policy also mentions the importance of issue-based relationships. Is it not time to cooperate with all neighbours despite having differences on some matters? Why do relationships become hostage to disputes? As Carl Jung once rightly said:
“The greatest and most important problems of life are fundamentally unsolvable. They can never be solved, but only outgrown.”
If the leaderships of Pakistan and India are interested in regional integration, including economic, social, and political cooperation, amicable relations can be cultivated despite the presence of some disputes. With viable trade relations, human-to-human interactions, and a peaceful milieu for Kashmiris, the ties will gradually improve. India’s vision of becoming a great power and Pakistan’s dream of geoeconomic success cannot be achieved without regional peace and connectivity.
Who is a 'National Security Threat'?
Hybrid security challenges are real. That being said, the policy of curbing dissenting voices in the name of national security must be abandoned. Everyone who promotes new ideas is not a national security threat. More importantly, it is also unfair to say that sub-nationalists generate narratives against the state; in reality, their grievances are genuine and need to be resolved, as mentioned in the document.
If the state can talk to extremist religious groups and butchers of the Army Public School in Peshawar, can it not talk to sub-nationalist leaders who are persecuted by the government? It is fundamental to remind the state that people never forget military operations, whether they are conducted by colonial militaries, (Amritsar, Jalianwala Bagh 1919) or post-colonial militaries that inherit the brutal tactics (Dhaka, Dhaka University 1971 or Balochistan, Bhamboor Hills near Kohlu 2006, to name a few).
It's Time for Bold Decisions
Free exchange of ideas must be encouraged if Pakistan is interested in progress in the 21st century. Some parts of this first-declared national security policy are still confidential.
If the state is committed to human security, economic security, and east-west integration, why is it hiding these points? This is a national policy, not a secret nuclear bomb project that needs to be concealed from international attention.
The policy document tries to ensure that Pakistan would no longer engage in ‘camp politics’ by taking sides in global contests and would try to broaden the scope of its bilateral relationship with the US by including elements other than terrorism or Afghanistan-related concerns. It is no secret that after its inception, Pakistan was aligned with the US as part of SEATO and CENTO. However, it remains to be seen how it will maintain neutrality if the rivalry between China and the US escalates in the coming years. But recent signalling by the state depicts otherwise, ie., no neutrality, as Pakistan neither participated in the Summit for Democracy organised by the US nor is it willing to take a stand on the persecution of Uyghurs by China, despite being the ‘champion’ of the causes of Muslims worldwide.
It is time to show statesmanship, take bold decisions, and start a fresh dialogue with India on all outstanding issues as there is no precondition for dialogue in the policy document. Unimaginative narratives, such as Kashmir, which is our ‘Jugular vein’ or ‘Atoot Aang’, do not serve any country. If leaders of both countries are interested in the progress of South Asia, this is the right time to begin the dialogue from where it was stalled, as both countries had in fact come very close to the resolution of disputes in past.
There is no need to reinvent the wheel.
The writer is studying Political Science at the Department of Political Science, Gothenburg University, Sweden. Author Tweets at @DastgirSani
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