A section of political analysts would just refuse to come out of their own make-believe world. They would not believe that the 90 percent winning record achieved by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in selected states in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections could be maintained, or even bettered.
That a record-breaking conversion rate (number of seats won for every percent of votes secured) of nine could be repeated in two consecutive elections.
That Narendra Modi’s charisma could vanquish Mamata Banerjee’s fortress in West Bengal. That the SP-BSP’s formidable caste arithmetic, consisting of Yadavs-Muslims- Jatavs, three of the dominant electoral groups in politically crucial Uttar Pradesh, could be surpassed.
That the people could vote very differently in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, especially if the two were held in quick succession. That people would ignore visible rural stress and mass unemployment and yet overwhelmingly vote for the BJP.
What the BJP has achieved, instead, is staggering. Here is a quick snapshot:
- The BJP and its allies won all seats in 10 states and Union territories.
- The party managed a vote share of 50 percent or more in 13 states and Union territories. What this means is that even a combined Opposition would have struggled to halt the saffron juggernaut in these states.
- A majority of BJP MPs won with a vote share in excess of 50 percent.
- The BJP managed a gravity-defying positive vote swing or 24 percentage points or 150 percent in West Bengal! And this was achieved without a robust organisational machinery in place in the state.
- The BJP improved its strike-rate against the Congress even from the incredible level achieved five years ago.
I belonged to the camp that was sceptical of a BJP encore performance. Let me admit candidly how horribly wrong I was. All data points had convinced me that a repeat of what happened in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections was almost impossible.
That the BJP’s seat tally was bound to come down, as history seldom repeats itself.
My conviction, based on my own sense of the country’s electoral history, made me blind to the changes happening all around.
My myopic worldview, coloured as it was by a set of past data, would refuse to believe that ‘Modi hai to mumkin hai’ (Modi can make anything possible). It allowed me to believe that despite the Modi magic shining bright, and all too visibly, it was likely to face a roadblock under the weight of its own colossal electoral performance achieved five years ago.
I did not realise that while history rarely repeats itself, it is always possible to write a new history altogether.
Through the latest election victory, Modi has done precisely that.
Perils of Applying Conventional Wisdom to Judge ‘Brand Modi’
My line of analysis received a bloody blow following the publication of the exit poll results. The confirmation came on 23 May, when the entire world witnessed what is now called a ‘Modi Tsunami’.
The verdict has shown that ‘brand Modi’ has not only retained all the premium it had, despite five years of incumbency, it keeps on adding to its value as we go along.
Why is it so? Other than its intrinsic value built on aggressive Hindutva, masculine nationalism, tireless pursuit of goals and ruthless implementation of what is deemed good for the people, the rise of ‘brand Modi’ is directly proportional to the erosion in credibility of the competing ‘idea of India’.
Competing Idea of India Let Us Down
The latest verdict, therefore, is a blow to the proponents of the competing idea of India. Why are they staring at oblivion? Because of their duplicity, perhaps.
While they celebrate the country’s diversity and shun any attempt to discriminate on the basis of primordial identities, they have been selective in their approach. While they have celebrated the rise of caste-based parties with the justification that caste is a reality, their vehement opposition to religion-based mobilisations, therefore, looks hollow.
Caste is as much a reality as religion is. Why celebrate one and consider the other dangerous?
If only they had shunned both with equal conviction, they would have retained their credibility. Unfortunately, that has not been the case.
If certain sections feel threatened, and rightly so, by some groups that blatantly espouse the virtues of one religion over all others, the same rule applies to all those who are at the receiving end of caste-based discrimination. We cannot have double standards here and yet take pride in the idea of India that should be inclusive and not exclusive.
The proponents of the competing idea of India (the so-called liberal-secular brigade) have followed a top-down approach – believe in these ideas because I say so.
It is very much like the constitutionalism of the Congress in pre-Independence India, where some leaders would sit and deliberate on issues concerning the people, without taking feedback from the ground.
The verdict is also a blow to all the political formations that demand loyalty on the basis of caste affiliations of their leaders. While politicians like Lalu Prasad Yadav, Ajit Singh or Mayawati may have given voice to the people they claim to represent, have they done enough to fulfil the rising aspirations of the same groups? Will the same slogan of social justice work for years?
The verdict has also shown that you have to be among the people before harbouring aspirations of representing them, perhaps a fair ask in a democratic set-up.
While the BJP leadership and its rank and file have been seen to be doing just that, does the same hold true for other political parties?
Why did I not see these changes which were otherwise visible to many others? I was blinded by my own unshakeable belief in conventional wisdom. And Modi magic has surprised many of us, yet again.
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