Hyperbole and politics always go hand in hand.
Otherwise, sober analysts have a peculiar habit of making sweeping conclusions and forecasts every time the results of an election are announced.
The author was in school in 1977, but vividly remembers both Indira Gandhi and her son Sanjay losing their Lok Sabha constituencies during the anti-Emergency wave. Analysts started writing obituaries for the Congress party.
In 1984, the author was doing his master's when the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) won just two seats in the general election, and Atal Bihari Vajpayee was humiliated electorally by Madhav Rao Scindia in Gwalior. Many pundits wrote elegies for the BJP.
When the Vajpayee-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) swept the 1999 Lok Sabha elections and the Congress tumbled to a record low of 114 seats, epitaphs of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty became the flavour of the day.
No Two Elections Are Ever the Same
This glorious tradition continues even in contemporary India.
A few months ago, when the Congress won a handsome majority in the Karnataka Assembly elections, there were gushing references to the “return” of Rahul Gandhi the mass leader, along with observations that the Narendra Modi factor is a dud when it comes to assembly elections.
In the run-up to the assembly elections in five states this November, when the BJP did not project any chief ministerial face, commentary revolved around the blunder being committed by the BJP.
This became the daily discourse when many opinion polls suggested a 4-1 victory for the Congress. The Grand Old Party was ready for the 2024 finale, and how. Come 3 December, the discourse turned yet again on its head. That the Modi factor works like magic even in Assembly elections was the first somersault. Another gymnastic flip was the “conclusion” that 2024 is already in the bag for Narendra Modi.
What is the reality beyond the hyperbole?
The fact is that the BJP is without doubt in a pole position for the 2024 Lok Sabha race, but not because it has won grand victories in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. It is because of electoral data.
The vote share gap between the BJP and its allies (BJP+) compared to the Congress and its allies (Congress+) in Karnataka, western India, and the Hindi heartland in 2014 and 2019, has ranged between 10 percent and 35 percent.
Take Himachal where the Congress won in December 2022. The vote share gap between the two is a staggering 35 percent. With Modi as the gladiator and with no survey showing any signs of a decline in his popularity ratings, common sense suggests that the 2024 story is not going to be different unless something truly dramatic happens in the next four months.
Given this set of hard data, one would not be indulging in hyperbole to suggest that the BJP has all but breasted the victory tape. Yet, no two elections are ever the same. And in a hurry to declare the BJP victorious, analysts seem to be papering over some ground realities.
Political Chemistries Have Changed in Bihar and Maharashtra
Four states have the possibility of upsetting the BJP apple cart in 2024. Together, they send a significant 158 members to the Lok Sabha. In 2019, 125 of these were won by BJP+. The BJP alone won 83 of these seats.
But things have changed significantly since 2019 and somehow analysts are ignoring the changes while attempting a 2024 forecast. The four states in question are West Bengal, Bihar, Maharashtra, and Karnataka.
The BJP top brass, more than anyone else, would be acutely aware that maintaining a 2019 stranglehold in Maharashtra and Bihar would be quite difficult.
Take the case of Bihar. In 2019, the BJP, JD(U) [Janata Dal (United)], and the LJP (Lok Janshakti Party), were allied for the elections. Both the chemistry and the arithmetic were so formidable that the NDA swept 39 of the 40 seats in Bihar. But everyone knows how things have changed.
The JD(U) is now in alliance with the RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) and combined with the Left and the Congress, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) will not be a pushover like in 2019. If the Modi factor and face did not tower over the Lok Sabha elections, one could have safely predicted a huge victory for the MGB in Bihar in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
But the Modi magic still works, though it is impossible to estimate now to what extent it will offset the MGB arithmetic. Yet, a substantial decline from 39 in 2019 is more than probable given that the LJP has splintered.
Then there is Maharashtra about which even the foolhardy will think twice before making any forecast. In 2019, the Shiv Sena and the BJP fought together as allies. Along with an independent, they pocketed 42 out of 48 seats; with four going to the NCP (Nationalist Congress Party), one to the Congress, and one to AIMIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen).
Since then, the Shiv Sena and the BJP have parted ways. But there is a twist.
The Shiv Sena has split and one faction will contest as an NDA member while the other led by Uddhav Thackeray will contest as an I.N.D.I.A (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) member. Even the NCP has split. One faction led by Ajit Pawar will contest as an NDA partner while the other led by Sharad Pawar is with I.N.D.I.A.
One can safely assume that the BJP will perhaps retain its 28 percent vote share. But it is impossible to estimate what vote share the factions will manage to get. Yet, a scenario where BJP+ gets 42 seats in 2024 does seem like a tall order.
On Karnataka and West Bengal
In 2019, the BJP stunned everyone by getting 51.4 percent of the vote share compared to 41 percent of the JD(S)-Congress alliance. Along with an independent, it swept 26 of the 28 seats and the current Congress president, Mallikarjun Kharge, lost his seat.
But unlike the Hindi heartland, the Congress is electorally very strong in Karnataka. In the event, it won't be a shocker if it repeats its 2014 performance by winning 9 seats.
West Bengal is unique. The BJP stunned analysts and the TMC (All India Trinamool Congress) by winning 18 of the 42 seats. Its vote share of 40.7 percent was not far behind the TMC vote share of 43.3 percent. But the TMC has since won a massive victory in the 2021 Assembly elections.
Anecdotal evidence also suggests that the unprecedented violence unleashed on BJP workers and supporters after the Assembly elections has terrified and bludgeoned them into a state of fear.
The domestic help of the author went to West Bengal in 2021 to “vote for Modi.” According to her, most of her village was burnt down. She, and many like her, have no plans to go and vote in 2024.
The way things are, the BJP is still the odds-on favourite. But these four states have the potential to spoil the party.
(Sutanu Guru is the Executive Director of the CVoter Foundation. This is an opinion article and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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