MCD Bypolls: AAP Must Introspect But BJP Has Real Cause for Worry

The AAP is unlikely to face any serious challenge from either the BJP or the Congress, writes Sanjay Kumar.

By-elections to 13 wards in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) threw up surprising results, with the AAP and the Congress winning five seats each and the BJP winning in three wards. The result is a clear indication of rejection of the BJP which continues to hold the reins of the MCD. But it does not quite indicate a revival for the Congress in Delhi.

Regaining five wards is a small achievement for the Congress, especially when it drew a blank in the 2015 Delhi assembly elections. The party is now on an equal footing with the AAP whose future plans certainly include taking control of the MCD board.

AAP’s Popularity Intact

It is true that AAP is not as popular now as it was after its stunning 2015 assembly election victory, winning all but three of the 70 assembly seats, with 54 percent votes. However, the MCD by-poll results should not be seen as an erosion of its popularity. In a democratic set-up, it is difficult for any party in power to retain its vote share completely. If elections were to be held for the Delhi assembly tomorrow, the AAP is unlikely to face any serious challenge from either the BJP or the Congress.

By-election results are not the best indicators to judge the overall popularity of a political party, and local body polls are even less reliable.

Need for Introspection

But shouldn’t AAP be concerned about these elections, shouldn’t the Congress celebrate this small success and shouldn’t the BJP be concerned about its poor performance? Regardless of the AAP leadership’s attempt to put up a brave front, it would serve the party well to introspect why it ended up winning only five wards. More than the BJP and the Congress, the AAP’s cause for worry stems from two reasons:

1. Though the AAP held none of the municipal wards, by-election in 13 wards was necessitated since the previous councillors were elected as the party’s MLAs.

2. With a 54 percent vote share that the AAP cornered barely 16 months ago, its performance in the by-polls should bring its leadership to the electoral drawing board. One of the principal reasons for the slide is the tussle between the Kejriwal-led Delhi government and the BJP even as MCD workers went on flash strike. The stand taken by the AAP when the strike began to hit people may have displeased voters, especially those belonging to the economically weaker sections.

Win Some, Lose Some

• The fact that the AAP won only 5 seats in the MCD by-polls should be a matter of concern for the party after its huge 2015 mandate.
  
• The economically weaker section seems disillusioned with the party due to its stand on the MCD workers’ flash strike.
  
• Regaining five wards is a small achievement for the Congress, especially when it drew a blank in the 2015 Delhi assembly elections.
• BJP, with 3 seats in its kitty, should introspect why the party is being rejected by people despite being at the Centre for nearly two years.
  

Consolation for Congress

It would be premature for the Congress to smell victory. It is at best a sign of revival for a party that had practically been wiped out in 2015. The party, which polled 9.7 percent of the votes in 2015, has merely won in five wards. Ajay Maken certainly has the ability to turn the Congress around but to even make a dent in the AAP, the party will have to pull itself out of the morass if it wants to be a serious challenger in the future.

Of the three parties, the biggest concern is of the BJP which, while still holding the MCD fort, would have to settle differences within the Delhi unit and project a viable leader who would be able to take on the likes of Arvind Kejriwal and the Congress’ Maken.

(The writer is professor and currently the Director, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). Views expressed are personal.)

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