The suspense is over. Maratha reservation activist Manoj Jarange Patil's decision not to field candidates in the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly elections could mar the prospects of the BJP more than any other party.
It is a surprise U-turn that can be interpreted differently by different people. Hours before the announcement early this week, Patil had vowed to take “revenge” against the BJP-led ruling Mahayuti alliance for “denying” reservations to the Maratha community.
“I have told my community that this is not our family business; we might be misled,” he told reporters in Antarwali-Saraati in the Jalna district of the Marathwada region.
Maharashtra is experiencing a painful socio-political-economic churn, and Jarange Patil’s sudden emergence as the leader of the dominant community in the past two years has caught the entire political class unaware.
Patil is seeking reservations for the Kunbis among the Marathas through the OBC route, which has made the sizeable backward-class communities in the state uneasy. This is because the Marathas, who constitute some 30 to 32 percent of the state’s 12 crore-plus population, have been dominant in the social and political sphere since the state's inception.
The majority of the chief ministers so far have been from this community, including the incumbent, Eknath Shinde.
The BJP and its Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis, who had been Jarange Patil’s favourite punching bag, could be pleased with the turn of events. But there is more to it than meets the eye. The joy of the BJP will be short-lived.
There is a saying in Marathi. “Zakli muth savaa lakha chi,” meaning, one can derive maximum benefit by keeping one’s intentions and future strategy a secret, as it leaves everyone guessing.
By seeking to pose that he is even-handed in the political game and that he was only interested in the Maratha reservation issue, the shrewd Jarange Patil has ensured his status as the ‘voice’ of the Maratha community with whom any future government would have to deal.
Despite leaving it to the Maratha community to decide whom to defeat and whom to help get elected, he has already sown so much distrust against the dominant party in the minds of his followers that he knows how things will turn out.
The reaction of Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar, as well as Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat, hailing Jarange Patil’s decision, speaks volumes. Political observers believe that the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi is likely to benefit, especially in the 46 seats in the Marathwada region, if he has the same impact as during the Lok Sabha polls.
In those elections, the MVA had won seven out of those eight parliamentary seats.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah, during his visit to the Marathwada region in recent months, sought to make light of the Jarange Patil threat. He underlined that if party workers worked diligently and were able to raise 30 votes in each booth, the BJP and its allies could win 30 of the 46 seats.
Patil’s decision to step back from the polls is also considered to be a setback for Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and his faction of the Shiv Sena. There was a perception, even among the BJP's circles, that Shinde had carefully cultivated Jarange Patil by trying to resolve his issues and often sending a team of ministers to meet the agitating leader.
The Maratha quota issue is seen as a broad-spectrum antibiotic for the regime to tide over the present troubles, ignoring the deep malaise caused by a variety of reasons, including agrarian distress, growing poverty and unemployment, fragmentation of land holdings, and lopsided industrial development.
Jarange Patil is no novice. It looks like he has adopted the ‘one step backwards for two steps forward’ strategy. The 42-year-old activist has virtually become the sole leader of the Marathas, and his frequent fast-unto-deaths since August last year have rattled the powers that be.
While the BJP has fielded several Maratha candidates, it is relying on Eknath Shinde as well as Ajit Pawar to damage the Maratha vote bank of the Congress and Sharad Pawar's NCP. Patil’s supporters can vote for Shinde's Maratha candidates to some extent but are unlikely to vote for the BJP's Maratha candidates.
The Marathas have been on the warpath for a long time, demanding a quota within the changed social and economic milieu. Their massive silent marches in various parts of the state a few years back should have served as a warning to the state government.
(Sunil Gatade is a former Associate Editor of the Press Trust of India. Venkatesh Kesari is an independent journalist. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
