It Would Be Unwise for TMC to View the Bypoll Sweep as a Bellwether for 2026

Part of the reason for Mamata’s continued winning streak is the absence of any viable Opposition parties in Bengal.

Those who were writing Mamata Banerjee’s political obituary after the massive street protests in the wake of the brutal rape and murder of a 31-year-old junior doctor at RG Kar Medical College and Hospital in Kolkata in August this year, are doubtless astonished by the results of the bypolls in West Bengal. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) won all six assembly seats, snatching one from the BJP, while significantly improving its victory margins in the others.

Cock-a-hoop over its performance, the TMC has been quick to project it as a reaffirmation of its political stranglehold on Bengal and as proof that the Bengal chief minister has weathered the RG Kar storm, and has emerged, not just unscathed, but stronger than ever.

In its triumphalism, the party is now eyeing a national role for its supremo. Senior TMC leaders have been saying that Mamata should become the face of the Opposition because, unlike the Congress, which routinely crumbles before the BJP, as it did in Maharashtra last week, she has demonstrated time and again that she can beat back the march of the saffron party. Expect the demand to grow louder as the TMC flexes its muscles and its numbers in the coming days.

However, one must question whether the TMC’s 6-0 victory in the bypolls is truly an indication of the chief minister’s unshakable hold on power in Bengal.

Does it prove that the months-long protests and strikes by junior doctors at RG Kar Hospital — a protest taken up by thousands of doctors and civil society members across the state, a protest not only against the gruesome rape and murder, but also against the unsafe working conditions of medical professionals and the misgovernance and corruption in the state’s healthcare sector — has had no impact when it comes to the political choices made by the people of Bengal?

Or could it be that the agitation was merely an urban outpouring that failed to resonate in the state’s rural hinterland?

Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her party faithful would certainly have us believe that. But the truth may not be quite as comforting for the TMC. Indeed, it would be unwise for the party to view these big bypoll wins as a bellwether for the assembly elections that will be held in 2026.

The fact is that the months-long protests and cease-work by doctors across Bengal did not take place in a vacuum. The huge, emotive “reclaim the night” rallies demanding women’s safety were not random events.

They were accompanied and validated by the spontaneous outburst of public fury over the rape and murder of the junior doctor, the way a violent army of lumpens assaulted protesting doctors at RG Kar and vandalised the hospital premises on the night of 14 August, the alleged tampering of evidence of the crime, the many allegations of corruption and wrongdoing on the part of the then RG Kar principal Sandip Ghosh and the administration’s brazen attempt to protect him, and, of course, the widespread perception that the misrule and corruption in the health sector was but an extension of the rot that had infected every arm of the state government.

Yes, the agitation has now simmered down, but not before Mamata had to give in to many of the demands of the protesting doctors, including agreeing to the removal of Kolkata Police Commissioner Vineet Goyal, along with the Director of Medical Education and the Director of Health Services.

Also, the chief minister did not exactly cover herself in glory or empathy when six junior doctors went on a hunger strike on 5 October, calling on the state to fulfil the rest of their demands, and she let their fast continue for 17 days (during which some of them had to be hospitalised) before finally agreeing to talk to them and meeting most of their conditions for resumption of work.

Today, there is an uneasy truce between the state administration and the doctors who had struck work in protest against the dens of iniquity that many hospitals have turned into. Sandip Ghosh is in CBI custody, and the case against Sanjoy Roy, the man held responsible for the crime by the Kolkata Police and, later, the CBI, is grinding on in the courts. Despite whispers that others may have been involved, no one else has been indicted. It would appear that it was as Mamata and her loyal party folk had insisted all along: one man, a sexual pervert and a psychopath, committed the crime.

Even so, the protests have dented Mamata’s image as the unassailable iron woman of Bengal. There is a general perception of a moral slide, a perception fuelled by the many incidents of fraud, scams, and thuggery, along with allegations of extortion, sexual harassment and assault that have benighted her administration. To many, the crime at RG Kar, the deeply problematic way in which it was tackled initially, and the slew of alleged malpractices in the state's teaching hospitals, was an ugly display of all that was broken in the state of West Bengal.

Part of the reason for Mamata’s continued electoral winning streak is, of course, the absence of any viable Opposition parties in Bengal. While the decimated Left and the Congress are still struggling to get their act together, the BJP, which had once looked like it could pose a serious challenge to the TMC, is a house divided. In the bitter power struggle between state president Sukanta Majumdar and Leader of the Opposition in the legislature Suvendu Adhikari, the BJP has seen its gains in Bengal get whittled away.

In contrast to the disarray amongst its opponents, the TMC’s organisational strength continues to be formidable. And there is no doubt that as a savvy politician who has her pulse on the mood of the populace, Mamata will do her best to turn public sentiment back in her favour. She would not have failed to have noticed that when the RG Kar protests were raging, many beneficiaries of her wildly popular Kanyashree and Lakshmi Bhandar schemes for women had declared that they did not want the cash handouts anymore, that they valued their dignity and safety above a dole.

Bypoll victory or not, cracks have emerged in the TMC’s fortress in Bengal. They may or may not have a telling impact on the outcome of the 2026 Assembly elections, especially in view of the Opposition’s so far lacklustre efforts. But the disenchantment with Mamata and her party is unmistakable now.

The only question is when it will reach the tipping point.

(Shuma Raha is a journalist and author. She tweets @ShumaRaha. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)