New Delhi’s pre-eminence is under grave threat in poll-bound Maldives where India is heavily invested to keep Beijing at bay. The situation is all the more challenging because the predominantly Muslim archipelago is a rare success story for Indian neighbourhood diplomacy in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi, no less, has personally played a key role by befriending his counterpart.
But ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for 9 September, a split in the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) of pro-India President Ibrahim Solih who Modi charmed and won over – has badly damaged MDP’s re-election prospects.
India tried hard but failed to patch up its staunch ally Solih’s differences with former President Mohammad Nasheed, who is also pro-India but has floated a new party called 'The Democrats' and is determined to send Solih packing in two months.
Nasheed lost to Solih in the MDP presidential primaries in January igniting an all-out war between friends-turned-foes which goes against India’s strategic interests.
Maldives' Divided Political Loyalty
On the one hand, the Solih-Nasheed clash has weakened New Delhi’s position. On the other, it is a godsend for the openly pro-China and virulently anti-India Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) of Abdulla Yameen who aligned Male with Beijing during his prime ministership until 2018 when he lost to Solih to India’s great relief and China’s dismay.
But despite Yameen’s defeat five years ago and Solih openly prioritising India over China, political loyalties in the Maldives are still sharply divided between New Delhi and Beijing.
For instance, the centrepiece of China-backed PPM’s electioneering is its provocative "India Out” campaign which kicked off three years ago and is aimed at the resident power’s military presence in the atoll nation.
The PPM has promised to protect Maldives’ sovereignty by revoking all defence and strategic pacts the Solih regime has signed with India.
Importantly, the PPM’s "India Out” drive is just the opposite of the MDP’s "India First” policy which dovetails nicely with New Delhi’s “Neighbourhood First” approach.
How Modi Features in Madives’ Election Campaign
At present, Yameen is behind bars on corruption charges which the PPM calls 'motivated' and 'fabricated', and is confident of a favourable court verdict soon which would set Yameen free.
Of late, the PPM has started lampooning and caricaturing PM Modi to fuel its "India Out” rallies, making Modi a central figure in the election campaign picking up momentum in the Maldives. PPM demonstrators are even donning Modi face masks and a campaign video doing the rounds on social media shows its cadres in a tattered kurta pyjama with a garland of shoes.
The Solih regime is cut to the quick by PPM directly targeting Modi and is vociferously condemning it.
A Maldivian government statement says: “Such dishonourable acts by the Opposition regarding one of Maldives’ key bilateral partners and its leadership does not only provoke hatred but also promote hostility with the objective of tarnishing the country’s long-standing cordial ties with India.” But an undeterred PPM plans to capitalise on Modi to rally Maldives Muslim masses behind it amid the election fever.
Even more disheartening for India is the partnership Yameen and Nasheed have just struck to jointly oust New Delhi’s man, Solih. Nasheed kept Yameen at arm’s length for a long time despite Solih being their common enemy.
It took Yameen and Solih considerable time to forge a partnership because of their divergent approach to developing the Maldives and relations with foreign powers. Yameen is a votary of centralising decision-making to fast-track development and growth while Nasheed believes in decentralisation for quick economic prosperity.
Moreover, Nasheed is very pro-India and has publicly accused China in the past of using a debt trap as a tool to run the Maldives. His reservations about the "India Out” drive are also well-known.
Although the Modi government is fully backing Solih, India’s diplomatic and security establishments still cherish their old ties with Nasheed.
Allegiance to China
Yameen, on the other hand, swears by China and wears his allegiance to China as a badge of honour.
Remarkably, the two ex-Presidents have sunk major differences – particularly over India’s role in the Maldives – and arrived at a broad understanding to somehow defeat Solih in the elections. One must especially bear in mind that Nasheed agreed to enter into a partnership with Yameen despite the latter refusing to give up or even moderate his anti-India stand. Clearly, Nasheed compromised after Yameen refused.
A day before Yameen and Nasheed sealed the deal, the latter praised to the skies the former’s "dedicated service to the nation”. He also slammed the Solih government for imprisoning "a man of Yameen’s stature”. Significantly, Nasheed publicly shared his assessment of the popular mood. He said that as things stand, 15 percent of the electorate will vote for Solih, 18 percent for Yameen, and six percent for him, while the remaining 61 percent of the electorate is still undecided.
Obviously, many ifs and buts remain. A clearer picture will emerge closer to polling. But one thing is crystal clear – portends for India is not good.
Foreign Visits Did Little for Development
Only a miracle can give Solih another term going by the obstacles in his path, especially the Yameen-Nasheed tango in Male and Beijing throwing its full weight behind the revengeful duo.
Maldives Foreign Minister Abdullah Shahid had spent two days in New Delhi this month. Earlier, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Junior Foreign Minister V Muraleedharan visited Male. None of these visits focussed on developmental assistance that India has anyway been generous with.
Their sole purpose was to get Solih re-elected. But that seems to be a tall order indeed, thanks to the split in the MDP and newly forged electoral unity between the wily Nasheed and Yameen who have fallen back on the tribal practice of hunting in pairs.
(SNM Abdi is a distinguished journalist and ex-Deputy Editor of Outlook. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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