Former Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray's troubles, which began after the rebellion of his trusted lieutenant Eknath Shinde in June 2022, have only got worse and worse day after day.
First, he lost his chief ministership to Shinde. Then, after the original rebellion, more leaders and party workers kept defecting to the Shinde camp. Then, in October 2022, the Election Commission of India (ECI) froze the name Shiv Sena and the party symbol bow and arrow and later asked both the factions to choose alternative party names and symbols for the interim period.
Thackeray camp went with the name Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and Shinde camp chose Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena. Both the factions wanted the Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray's name in their party names as both Thackeray and Shinde have been vociferously claiming that they are the true inheritors of the late Thackeray's ideology and legacy.
This claim was settled in a decisive way by the ECI on Friday, 17 February, in Shinde camp's favour after it ordered that the Shinde's party would retain the original name – Shiv Sena, and the party symbol – bow and arrow.
The Friday's decision came as a major blow to Uddhav Thackeray – the son of the party founder, who was installed as the heir of the party by his late father himself.
On the other hand, it is a major moral victory for Ekanth Shinde and his followers who have been plagued by the accusations that they rebelled from the original party and joined Bharatiya Janata Party's hands in exchange for money. 'Pannas khoke, ekdamn okay' (Fifty boxes, all that needed) had become the anthem of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi, whose leaders didn't miss any opportunity to chant this slogan to embarrass the Shinde camp.
How Much Do Party Name and Symbol Matter?
India has a large number of illiterate and semi-literate voters and many of them have a strong association between parties and their symbols.
Once when I asked a relative of mine to name the major parties in Maharashtra, she literally listed out their symbols – "Hand, clock, lotus, and bow and arrow," she said.
Shinde now has got a symbol that has been in use since 1989 and a party name that has been in use since 1966. Both have a great recall value among Maharashtra's voters, which will be advantageous to Shinde's party, at least in the short term. On the other hand, Thackeray will have to start from the scratch.
Ajinkya Gaikwad, who teaches political science at Mumbai's SIES College of Arts, Science and Commerce, said that we need to think of the marketing term 'customer acquisition' here.
"Thackeray's cadre will have to engage in voter acquisition. They will have to go door-to-door and create awareness about their new symbol – flame. The party's resources will be expended on imprinting the symbol on voters' mind."– Ajinkya Gaikwad
BMC Election Crucial for Uddhav Thackeray's Future
Thackeray is literally fighting for survival now. While his party has been allowed to retain the symbol 'flame,' the Shiv Sena (UBT) leaders have expressed the apprehension that it too might be "snatched away from them."
The future of the 15 MLAs who are currently with Thackeray also hangs in uncertainty. The leaders from the Shinde camp have stated that with their faction recognised as the real Shiv Sena, all the MLAs elected on Shiv Sena ticket in 2019 assembly election, will have to follow their whip – the ones who do not, should face disqualification.
It is no secret that Shinde received great help from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in his rebellion. He knows he became the 20th chief minister of Maharashtra thanks to the BJP, which is why he shows a great deference towards prime minister and BJP leader Narendra Modi. The BJP and Shinde together will strive hard to decimate Thackeray's power completely.
The Shinde faction has laid claim over the Shiv Sena shakhas in Mumbai as well and is also contemplating staking claim over the party's bank accounts. The Shiv Sena shakhas and the shakha pramukhs play an important role in election campaigns.
Thackeray has labelled Shinde as a thief who stole his party and party symbol and is trying to steal his father too. While that might be a great rhetoric, he will ultimately have to prove he has people's support by winning elections.
The upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election, the dates for which may be announced soon, are extremely crucial for both Thackeray and Shinde as this election will test the legitimacy of both the leaders.
Uddhav Thackeray had earned appreciation even from his hardcore critics for his performance as chief minister during the COVID-19 pandemic. Gaikwad asserted that Thackeray does have a soft charisma and a section of Maharashtrian voters have a soft corner for him. However, will that be enough to carry him forward?
Shiv Sena's power is most concentrated in the state capital. It has been ruling the Mumbai civic body for more than three decades. As senior journalist Nikhil Wagle told BBC Marathi on Saturday, the BMC also has been a major source of the party funds. If Thackeray's party loses the BMC election, it will not just put his legitimacy in question, it will also cut off important monetary resources needed for the party's survival. Uddhav's biggest fear right now must be ending up like his estranged cousin, Raj Thackeray – a well-reconised political figure across Maharashtra but without any real power.
The upcoming municipality elections, in Mumbai and elsewhere, will be equally important for Shinde. If the "real" Shiv Sena doesn't perform in elections, it will not take much time for the BJP to reduce it to insignificance.
"The voter base of the BJP and Shinde's party is the same 'Hindutva' constituency, however Shinde cannot compete with BJP's hardline Hindutva. One speech by Modi is enough to sway this voter towards the BJP," Gaikwad stated.
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