Lok Sabha Election is a Litmus Test for Uddhav's Experiments With His Shiv Sena

“The more things change, the more they stay the same.”

The old adage perfectly sums up the current state of political affairs in the state of Maharashtra. While everything seems to be in a constant state of flux in the Western state, one thing that has remained constant is the age-old principle of Berjeche Rajkaran that has defined the politics of the state since its formation in 1960. Berjeche Rajkaran, which loosely translates to ‘politics of accretion’ was a term popularised by the Maratha strongman and first chief minister of the state Yashwantrao Chavan. It refers to the strategy of co-opting leaders and cadres from across the political spectrum- often from other parties and organisations.

The BJP’s politics in the state has heavily relied on Berjeche Rajkaran — as is seen from the expansion of the NDA — first as a consequence of splits in the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party and now by the induction of Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena into its fold. The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) which has emerged as the principal opposition to the BJP in the state is also relying on Berjeche Rajkaran — albeit on a different version of the same principle.

While the BJP’s iteration of Berjeche Rajkaran is to engineer defections and splits to expand its alliance, the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s version of Berjeche Rajkaran has focused on adding to its core supporter base by giving itself a moderate makeover and diluting its hardened stance on certain issues.

The Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Moderate Makeover Under Uddhav and Aditya

The moderate makeover of the Shiv Sena (UBT) has resulted in the party softening its stand on several issues and reaching out to communities such as Muslims, North Indians, and even the Gujaratis — communities that were once considered to be at the receiving end of the undivided Shiv Sena’s politics of Thokshahi. But the biggest story without any doubt has been the party’s fast-changing relationship with the Muslim community. Contrary to the popular perception, that the party started mending its fractured ties with Muslims and opening up to the community, only after the formation of the the tripartite Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi government in 2019; the fact is that the party’s moderate makeover which included the party reaching out to Muslims predates the formation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government.

The BJP and the Shinde Sena have accused the Uddhav Thackeray-led outfit of discarding its ideological beliefs in pursuit of power after tying up with secular allies. But even in its undivided avatar when it was still in alliance with the BJP, the signs of a moderate ideological makeover were clearly visible in the Shiv Sena. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections which the Shiv Sena contested in alliance with the BJP, the party as a part of its efforts to reach out to the Muslim community ran a campaign titled “Mi Marathi Musalman'' (I am a Marathi Muslim). In 2018, the party had also batted for the cause of reservation for Muslims in jobs and education citing that it would lead to the advancement of the community.

While the party’s detractors have claimed that the party has abandoned the cause of Hindutva after tying up with Congress-NCP, the roots of the Shiv Sena’s ideological transformation can be traced back to the early 2010s. After the passing away of the party's supremo Balasaheb Thackeray, there was a generational change in the party with Uddhav taking over the mantle. The generational change made it necessary for the party to redraw its strategy and rethink its politics.

In the times of Balasaheb Thackeray, his image as the original Hindu Hriday Samrat made it possible for the party to expand throughout the state and fuel its politics on the Hindutva plank. But the passing away of the party supremo and the subsequent rise of Narendra Modi as the new pan- Indian Hindu Hriday Samrat meant that the Shiv Sena could no longer rely on its old strategy as the BJP emerged as the preferred Hindutva party not just in the country but even in Maharashtra. Unlike his father who made the most of his rabble-rousing oratory to maintain an iron grip over the party, the soft-spoken, suave, Uddhav had to chart a new course for his party.

But it was not only these changing political dynamics that caused an ideological churn in the Shiv Sena. The personal ideological beliefs of the new leadership i.e. Uddhav Thackeray and Aditya Thackeray have also driven the Shiv Sena’s transformation. Uddhav Thackeray on multiple public forums has emphasised and highlighted two things — the influence of his grandfather Prabodhnkar Thackeray and how the Shiv Sena’s Hindutva is different from the RSS-BJP’s Hindutva. The Shiv Sena (UBT)’s attempts to distinguish its Hindutva from the BJP’s Hindutva is a classic case of product differentiation- much along the lines of different cola companies trying to give a USP to their brands.

But the influence of Prabodhankar Thackeray — the fiery 20th-century social reformer and one of the prominent leaders of the Samyukta Maharashtra (Unified Maharashtra) movement is very pronounced. Prabodhnkar Thackeray had been an advocate of an inclusive reformist Bahujan Vadi Hindutva — Hindutva sans the Brahminical hegemony.

Instead of adopting an outward approach directed at othering or targeting non-Hindus, Prabodhankar had been in support of taking an inward approach to Hindutva aimed at reforms. He had supported the cause of widow remarriage and had been an advocate for oppressed castes being allowed to worship and take part in festivities of Hindu festivals like Ganesh Chaturthi and Navratri.

So, when Uddhav Thackeray cites how the Janeu (sacred thread), Shendi (choti/shikha) kind of Hindutva is not acceptable to his party or when he says that their (Shiv Sena UBT’s)  brand of Hindutva "lights the stoves" in people's homes and the BJP's Hindutva "burns their homes — he is taking a leaf out of his grandfather’s book to carve out a new identity for his party. Interestingly, the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s second-in-command, Aditya Thackeray has repeatedly expressed his admiration for the former British PM Tony Blair and his “New Labour” model. In a way, it could be said that what is happening today with the Shiv Sena (UBT) under the Uddhav-Aditya duo is a New Labour-esque makeover of the party.

In recent years, the Uddhav Thackeray-led outfit has not just toned down its rhetoric against the Muslim community but also tried to make amends and built bridges with other communities that have been at the receiving end of its Thokshahi in the past. During the lockdown, when rumour spread that train services were being resumed, thousands of migrant workers — most of them from UP and Bihar had thronged the Bandra Railway station in Mumbai resulting in fears about the spread of the virus and a situation of near stampede. The same evening in his address to the state, then Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray switched from Marathi to Hindi and chose words of assurance instead of blaming the migrant workers.

While assuring the migrant workers that a lockdown was not the same as a lock-up and that his government would take care of them, he requested the migrant workers for their cooperation. Uddhav’s word of assurance and his measured and healing approach to the event were in stark contrast with the party’s belligerent approach towards the North Indian migrants in the past, which included controversial slogans like ‘Ek Bihari Sau Bimari’ to targeting the North Indian migrant workers over the celebration of festivals like Chatth Puja. The party had in the 2019 assembly polls also tried to woo the Gujaratis, another community with which it has been at loggerheads.

From blackening the faces of uncooperative government officials to moral policing couples celebrating Valentine’s Day, the Shiv Sena and its cadres were earlier identified with its politics of Thokshahi. But attempts to gentrify the party and its cadre and move away from the bellicose ways of the past are pretty evident. The Shiv Sena under Uddhav and Aditya no longer runs an anti-Valentine’s Day campaign. Instead, it advocates for a vibrant 24x7 nightlife for the city. The violence and vandalism that was associated with the party in the 1990s and 2000s appear to be a thing of the distinct past.

The party’s softening stance on certain issues, opening up to communities it had earlier locked horns with and its effort to rein in violence unleashed by its cadre have all created a positive perception of the party among non-traditional voters of the party who did not share a very rosy view of the party earlier. 

Battle of the Two Senas: A Battle for the Votes of the Marathi Manoos

While the Shiv Sena (UBT) has shown the potential to add to its traditional voter base courtesy of its moderate makeover, the party’s survival in this election and beyond would depend on its ability to hold on to its traditional base and its core voter i.e. the Marathi Manoos. The battle for the votes of the Marathi Manoos is what lies at the core of the battle that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is fighting today against the Shiv Sena (Shinde). Between the two Senas of Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde, the one that manages to win the votes of the Marathi Manoos would emerge as the real Shiv Sena.

While it has been widely said that the contest between the two parties is to retain their Hindutva base, the fact of the matter is that it is the vote of the Marathi Manoos and not the Hindutva vote which was the undivided Shiv Sena’s biggest USP.

The Shiv Sena (UBT) is very likely to be able to win over support from new quarters but its electoral success would still rely on its ability to maintain its grip over its traditional base. The makeover of the Shiv Sena (UBT) that has been on for over a decade now has been an experiment guided by the generational change in leadership, the personal ideological beliefs of the new leadership and the changing political dynamics of the state. If this New Labour-esque transformation of the Uddhav and Aditya-led Shiv Sena (UBT) has to be successful, it has to achieve one simple thing: retain its core voter base especially the Marathi Manoos vote while simultaneously making sure that the losses that it suffers due to the Shiv Sena (Shinde) are offset by the new voters it adds to its traditional base as a consequence of its makeover.

In the past couple of years, the Shiv Sena (UBT) has managed to do something that the undivided Shiv Sena had failed to do in almost fifty years of its existence — emerge as an inclusive and credible regional outfit that speaks about the causes of Maharashtra. In many ways, Maharashtra has suffered from the lack of credible regional parties up until now. The Shiv Sena (UBT) has shown the promise to fill that gap. In the battle for the votes of the Marathi Manoos and in the fight to emerge as the Asli Shiv Sena, it is this track record of the last two years that might help the Shiv Sena (UBT) win over the Shiv Sena (Shinde). The latter in alliance with the BJP has been accused of being a silent spectator as major investments and projects originally allocated to Maharashtra have been taken away to Gujarat.

On the ground, one could sense significant anger and resentment on the unfair treatment of Maharashtra — especially among the undivided Shiv Sena’s traditional Marathi Manoos vote. The Uddhav Thackeray-led outfit would hope that this anger translates into votes for it. It is also interesting to note that most voters who say they would prefer the Shiv Sena (Shinde) over the Shiv Sena (UBT) claim that they would do so because they want Modi as the PM or because they support Modi. This raises the question if the Shiv Sena’s (Shinde) support is coming from the erstwhile undivided Shiv Sena’s base or from the BJP’s base in the state.

However, the challenge that Shiv Sena (UBT) faces is that the Shinde-led Shiv Sena has not only much more resources but also in its ranks most of the party’s biggest regional satraps. In a highly localised and mostly waveless election with no single issue dominating the narrative, the role of the regional satraps could make a crucial difference. But will the traditional Shiv Sena voter follow the diktats of their regional satraps or defy these diktats to go with the Shiv Sena (UBT)? 

This would in all probability settle the question of which Shiv Sena is the Asli Shiv Sena. But at this point what seems certain is that Uddhav Thackeray is the biggest anti-BJP face in the state and while his Shiv Sena (UBT)-led MVA might significantly dent the BJP’s tally in the Lok Sabha elections, it is almost certain that it likely to fare much better in the October assembly polls.

(An alumnus of Mumbai’s St. Xavier’s College, Omkar is currently pursuing a Research Master's degree in Politics at Sciences Po, Paris. His research interests and publications focus on issues and themes like party politics and electoral competition in India, populism, Dravidian politics, voting behaviour, and representation of minorities in India’s lawmaking bodies. Currently, he is working on the ideological transition of the Shiv Sena in the post-Bal Thackeray era. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)