Battleground Vidarbha

The battle for Vidarbha’s vote is emblematic of the larger contest for control over Maharashtra's political future.

As Maharashtra braces for its highly anticipated elections, the Vidarbha region has emerged as a key battleground, bringing its own distinct set of challenges and opportunities to the forefront of the political arena.

Historically, Vidarbha has been on the periphery of Maharashtra’s development agenda, with its issues often overshadowed by the more urban-centric focus on Mumbai, Pune, and Western Maharashtra. However, this election has seen a shift, with Vidarbha's long-standing grievances of economic disparity, agrarian crisis, and a demand for decentralisation now playing a critical role in shaping the state’s political narrative.

Vidarbha's political weight has grown, largely driven by its socio-economic concerns and the promises made by political heavyweights. Despite assurances by leaders like Devendra Fadnavis, a prominent figure from the region, Vidarbha continues to face deep-rooted problems of poverty, farmer distress, and lack of industrial investment. This dissatisfaction has set the stage for fierce electoral contests.

The battle for Vidarbha’s vote, therefore, has become emblematic of the larger contest for control over Maharashtra's political future. 

Key Political Contests and Shifting Alliances

The BJP and Congress are locked in direct competition in 35 of the region’s 62 constituencies, underscoring its strategic importance for both national parties. Vidarbha, which traditionally leaned towards Congress, has seen a shift in recent years, with the BJP gaining significant ground, particularly since its 2014 victory in the state. Union Minister Amit Shah’s recent remarks underscore the region's importance: “Vidarbha holds the key to forming the next government in Maharashtra.”

However, it is not just a two-way fight.

Both factions of the Shiv Sena are battling for influence across six crucial constituencies in Vidarbha, including Buldhana and Balapur. The emotional connect that the Shiv Sena once held with voters, particularly in the Konkan and Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), is now under strain, with neither faction able to fully consolidate the traditional Sena base.

The splits within the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), with Sharad Pawar on one side and Ajit Pawar on the other, have further fractured the opposition vote. This intra-party conflict is playing out in seven key Vidarbha constituencies, including Morshi and Amravati, where both factions are trying to secure control. These multi-cornered contests have made the political landscape in Vidarbha more unpredictable than ever, with each party vying for a greater share of the fragmented electorate. 

Regional Grievances and Electoral Promises

Vidarbha’s socio-economic challenges have long been a point of contention in Maharashtra’s political discourse.

The region has faced chronic issues of farmer suicides, inadequate irrigation, and industrial stagnation, making it fertile ground for political promises of regional equity and development. Devendra Fadnavis, the former Chief Minister and BJP’s star campaigner from Vidarbha has emphasised the need for “balanced growth across all regions,” pledging to address the economic imbalance that has historically favoured western Maharashtra. Yet, similar promises have been made in the past, leading to widespread scepticism among Vidarbha’s electorate.

Agricultural distress remains the most pressing concern in the region, with Vidarbha being one of the epicentres of India’s agrarian crisis.

Water scarcity and inadequate support for farmers have resulted in a cycle of poverty and despair. NCP’s Ajit Pawar has highlighted the need for actionable policies to address these issues, stating, “The people of Vidarbha deserve more than promises—they need concrete plans to revitalise agriculture and create jobs.” His message resonates with a population weary of political rhetoric that has often failed to translate into real change.

In this context, the BJP’s focus on infrastructure development and industrial investment in Vidarbha may provide a counter-narrative. The party has promised to bring new industries to the region, positioning it as a hub for manufacturing and agro-processing. However, given the electoral history of unmet promises, the question remains whether voters will be swayed by these pledges or if they will demand more immediate and tangible solutions. 

Vidarbha’s Fragmented Political Landscape

With rebel candidates from both the Congress and BJP contesting as independents in several constituencies, the potential for vote splitting is high. These rebel candidates, often driven by internal party dissent, have turned straightforward battles into complex multi-cornered contests. For instance, in Daryapur, both Shiv Sena factions are competing alongside Congress and BJP rebels, creating a battleground where traditional party loyalties are being tested.

The impact of these fissures is particularly significant in constituencies where electoral margins have historically been thin. In the 2019 Assembly elections, the Mahavikas Aghadi (MVA)—a coalition of Congress, NCP, and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena—won 43.71 percent of the vote, narrowly edging out the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance, which secured 43.55 percent.

This razor-thin margin underscores the importance of Vidarbha in determining the outcome of the elections. The Shiv Sena split, coupled with the NCP’s internal divisions, could fracture the opposition vote base, potentially benefiting the BJP.

Moreover, the rural and agrarian makeup of Vidarbha’s electorate adds another layer of complexity. The region has a high proportion of tribal and farming communities, whose concerns differ from those of urban voters in Western Maharashtra. Both the BJP and Congress have tailored their campaigns to appeal to these communities, but it remains unclear which party will succeed in mobilising them. The NCP, traditionally strong in rural Vidarbha, is also facing a test of its grassroots organisational strength in the wake of its internal divisions. 

Conclusion

As Maharashtra heads toward its elections, Vidarbha stands at the centre of an intricate political puzzle. The region’s historical marginalisation, coupled with its growing political clout, has turned it into a focal point for all major parties. With the BJP and Congress locked in direct contests, and the Shiv Sena and NCP factions vying for influence, Vidarbha’s electorate is being courted like never before.

Yet, the outcome of this battle will depend not just on promises of development, but on the ability of political parties to address the deep-rooted grievances that have plagued the region for decades.

The fissures within the opposition, combined with the complexities of Vidarbha’s socio-economic landscape, suggest that this election is far from predictable. The political alliances and rivalries playing out in Vidarbha will have far-reaching consequences for Maharashtra as a whole, determining not just the next government, but the trajectory of the state’s development in the years to come.

In the battle for Vidarbha, no party can afford to falter. 

(Ashraf Nehal is a foreign policy analyst and a columnist who mainly tracks South Asia. He can be reached on Twitter at @ashrafnehal19 and on Instagram at ___ashraf___19. Rajeshwari Kashyap is a London-based journalist and political columnist with the Times of India. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for his reported views.)