Large Turnout at Lucknow Rally Is Fine, but Where’s the Modi Mojo?

We expected a rockstar-like performance from the PM at his Monday rally. But that familiar Modi was missing.

The crowd turnout was indeed impressive, perhaps one of the largest in recent times. The kind of political communicator he has been, we expected a rockstar-like performance from Prime Minister Narendra Modi at his Monday rally in Lucknow. Or at least a new idea or a new deal, as has been the case in many of his public rallies. But that familiar Modi was missing.

There was a general expectation that he would also share his thoughts on the outcome of demonetisation. Other than the familiar narrative like continuing his fight against corruption and black money, he shied away from the topic. It seems that he was trying to obliterate the painful memory of Notebandi as its outcome remains unclear and its likely benefits highly debatable.

Short and Bereft of Firepower

It was perhaps one of Modi’s shortest speeches – just 36 minutes long – packed with often-heard political dialogues.

Though he had asked political pundits not to jump to conclusions, he wanted all of us to know that the massive turnout is a clear indication of the way in which the wind is blowing.

Just a word of caution – years of political reporting tells me that a large turnout at rallies means very little. It is, at best, a reflection of the organisational strength of parties and leaders.

Public posturing about large gatherings aside, some of his observations point towards his worries about the upcoming Uttar Pradesh elections, which, whether one likes it or not, has become a sort of referendum on his government, post demonetisation.

Wary of the Jaat-Paat Equation

Reading between the lines of Modi ji’s speech, it seems that he is apprehensive of the caste metrics in UP. He urged UP voters to “rise above ‘jaat-paat’ for once and “vote for the BJP for development.”

We all know that religion metrics works for the BJP, but not caste. The BJP is making efforts to take this out of the equation. It is not easy and it showed when Modi fondly remembered Rajasthan Governor Kalyan Singh, who is from a backward caste. The BJP has constantly tried to woo non-Yadav backward caste voters.

Modi is perhaps concerned that the UP polls may throw up a hung Assembly. He made a strong pitch for a clear verdict. The BJP came in third during the 2012 state polls. But in 2014, the party swept the Lok Sabha elections with a whopping 42 percent vote share and hence started attacking its political rivals.

He termed the Congress as non-existent in UP, whose leader failed to establish her son in the party despite 15 years of effort; the Bahujan Samaj Party was running for cover to hide its money; and the Samajwadi Party was unsure of its family’s future.

He concluded this by saying that the state voters should give a strong majority to the BJP, so that like the Centre, the state can be ruled effectively.

Dalit Outreach Continues

An additional political pitch in his speech was evident from his pro-Dalit and pro-farmer slogans. Modi reached out to the Dalits with the newly-introduced BHIM mobile app – a payment interface, which he tried to sell by recalling Dr Bhimrao Ambedkar and Ramabai Ambedkar. Without naming Mayawati, he said that his rivals were feeling uncomfortable as his government was trying to empower the rural masses.

UP is going through severe rural and farm distress and the general expectation was that he would announce some concrete measures for the farmers. He had announced a minor waiver of interest on farm loans on 31 December. He spoke of farmers’ plight, but amidst high expectations, he under-delivered.

Asking the BJP Cadres to Be Responsible

This was quite an intriguing part of his speech.

While campaigning, the BJP’s aggressive elements tend to follow a communally divisive agenda. Perhaps after the Bihar polls, Modi appears to be extremely mindful of the pitfalls of this route. At the end of his speech, he urged the “karyakartas” to be responsible. He told them it was not only about capturing power in UP, but about changing India. Therefore, they must conduct themselves with “zimmewari” with those who may not be with them; their conduct should be equal to all as the party stood for sabka sath, sabka vikas.

Was this some sort of campaign advisory for his cadre?

By the way, did anyone notice Modi’s attire that consisted of a white “chikankari” kurta? After all, he was addressing a large crowd in Lucknow.