The Silent Voter is Caught Between Disillusionment and Fear of Social Backlash

In the heart of the 2024 Indian elections, a silent majority lingers, revealing a tale of disenchantment, mistrust, and indecision. This elusive group, marked by high rates of "no response" and "can't say" answers in crucial survey questions, holds the key to understanding the deeper currents shaping the political landscape. This piece unravels the silences in CSDS’s post-poll survey.

"Don't Know" and "Can't Say" responses in the CSDS survey highlight voter uncertainty due to particular political ideologies, lack of information, indecision, disengagement, and fear of social repercussions.

This significant level of indecision suggests that many voters are grappling with fundamental questions about the nature of democracy, the trustworthiness of political leaders, and their own role within the democratic process.

Addressing these uncertainties is crucial for fostering a more informed and engaged electorate, thereby strengthening the foundations of Indian democracy.

In Table 1, a staggering 31.6 percent of respondents were undecided about whether opposition leaders are being arrested due to political reasons or genuine corruption charges.

Question asked: Recently a number of Opposition leaders have been arrested on charges of corruption but hardly any leader of the BJP has been arrested on similar grounds. Keeping this in mind, would you say that leaders of the BJP are less corrupt than the leaders of Opposition parties or are the leaders of opposition parties being arrested mainly due to political reasons?

Consider the table below.

Table 1: Arrest of opposition leaders and corrupt BJP leaders  

Note: All figures in percent 
Source: Lokniti CSDS NES Post Poll 2024 Marginals 

The high rate of "can't say" responses reflects a deep-seated ambivalence among voters, caught in a web of conflicting media reports and political narratives. The perception of political persecution, with 43.8 percent believing that opposition leaders are targeted for political reasons, and only 22.9 percent viewing BJP leaders as less corrupt, paints a picture of widespread scepticism. This mistrust erodes faith in political institutions, making governance more challenging and polarising the electorate further.

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This uncertainty can be attributed to several factors: the electorate is bombarded with conflicting narratives from various media sources, leading to confusion and indecision. The polarised media environment makes it challenging for voters to discern the truth. The significant undecided percentage indicates a lack of trust in political leaders and institutions.

When voters cannot clearly decide whether corruption charges are genuine or politically motivated, it reflects a broader crisis of confidence. In a highly charged political atmosphere, voters may fear expressing their true opinions due to potential social or political repercussions.

The narrative reaches a critical juncture as we explore views on the current state of political corruption within the BJP. In Table 2, 32.3 percent of respondents were undecided about whether the BJP today is more or less corrupt than in the past.

Table 2: Perception about BJP as a corrupt party

Question asked: Do you think that the BJP of today is more corrupt than the BJP of earlier years or less corrupt than the BJP of the past? 
Note: All figures in percent 
Source: Lokniti CSDS NES Post Poll 2024 Marginals

The response underscores the electorate's confusion and ambivalence regarding political corruption. With significant portions of the population believing the BJP is either more corrupt now or has always been corrupt, the large undecided percentage highlights a deep uncertainty about the party's integrity and the effectiveness of anti-corruption measures.

This widespread scepticism and mistrust in political integrity undermine the very essence of democracy. A democracy thrives on informed and engaged citizens who trust the system to act fairly and justly. When this trust is eroded, the legitimacy of democratic institutions is called into question.

The data reflects a polarised electorate, with significant portions believing in political persecution and others uncertain about corruption within the ruling party. This polarisation can lead to heightened political tensions and conflicts, making it difficult to achieve consensus on critical national issues. The high levels of indecision and ambivalence can result in voter apathy. When voters are unsure about their choices, they are less likely to participate in the electoral process, leading to lower voter turnout and weakening the representative nature of the democracy.

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The Role of Citizens in Democracy

The complexity of voter indecision extends into their views on the role of citizens in a democracy. In Table 3, 13.2 percent of respondents were uncertain whether citizens should have the right to ask leaders to do certain things or if leaders should make decisions independently.

Table 3: The right to ask leaders questions  

Question asked: Some people think that in a democracy, citizens should have the right to ask the leader to do certain things. Others think that it is up to the leader to decide what to do and citizens do not have the right to interfere. What do you think? 
Note: All figures in percent 
Source: Lokniti CSDS NES Post Poll 2024 Marginals

The 13.2 percent who are unsure about the extent of citizens' rights in a democracy reveal an important uncertainty about the nature of participatory governance. While a majority (66.9 percent) believe in the right to influence leaders, the significant minority that is undecided suggests an ongoing debate about the boundaries of democratic engagement and authority.

A notable percentage of respondents are unsure about their rights in a democracy. This uncertainty points to a need for greater civic education and awareness. Citizens must understand their role in holding leaders accountable to foster a vibrant and participatory democracy.

The silence begins with a striking revelation: a substantial number of voters refrained from disclosing any political party affiliation. According to Table 4, 12.5 percent of respondents chose not to reveal their political leanings. This silence speaks volumes about a growing disengagement and dissatisfaction with the political options at hand.

Table 4: Political party affiliation

Nearly half of the electorate, four out of ten people, explicitly stated that they do not feel close to any political party. This significant portion of the population seems to be caught between disillusionment and fear of social backlash, reflecting a crisis of representation. This gives us some explanation for lower voter turnout and unpredictable swings in election outcomes.

The significant portion of the electorate that does not feel close to any political party (43 percent saying "No" and 12.5 percent non-responsive) reflects a crisis of representation. This disengagement suggests that many voters feel alienated from the political process and believe that no party adequately represents their interests. Enhancing civic education can help address voter uncertainty and empower citizens to engage more actively in the democratic process. By understanding their rights and the importance of their participation, citizens can become more informed voters.

Sources used: Lokniti CSDS NES Post Poll 2024 Marginals

(Naman Jaju, a researcher at CSDS Lokniti, currently pursuing an undergraduate degree in Politics at Ashoka University. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)