The most remarkable thing about the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Amethi is that it has become unremarkable. Amethi, where ballots were cast on 20 May, is now synonymous with a contest that didn’t happen.
The entire country expected it to become a battleground, as it had in 2014 and 2019, for a fight between Rahul Gandhi and Smriti Irani. Irani created the biggest upset of 2019 by trouncing Rahul Gandhi, then president of the Congress party, albeit by a relatively small margin of 55,000 votes. Fortunately for Gandhi, he had won in Wayanad, Kerala, and could thus retain his presence in Parliament.
This time around, everyone expected him to take on Smriti Irani again in Amethi. If he had, he would have surely won. After all, the period between 2019 and 2024 has seen a re-energized Rahul Gandhi, who has also singlehandedly revitalized a moribund Congress to a considerable extent.
However, he chose to leave Amethi, a constituency in Uttar Pradesh where he had won three consecutive times in 2004, 2009, and 2014. Instead, he moved to neighboring Rae Bareli, which was his mother Sonia Gandhi’s stronghold from 2004 to 2019. (He has contested from Wayanad this time too.)
In his place, the Congress fielded Kishori Lal Sharma, a local grassroots party worker and a close confidante of the Gandhi family for over four decades. The family has a long relationship with Amethi, which elected Sanjay Gandhi (1980), Rajiv Gandhi (1981, 1984, 1989, 1991), Sonia Gandhi (1999), and Rahul Gandhi (2004, 2009, 2014). Sharma has worked for all of them and has also been the family’s go-to person in Amethi and Rae Bareli.
Nevertheless, most people in India had not heard Sharma’s name. Who remembers the names of election managers, even in prestigious constituencies? They remain the unknown and unsung warhorses that do the routine ground-level work throughout their leaders’ term in Parliament while the latter mostly spend time in New Delhi, making occasional appearances in their constituencies.
As a result, Amethi lost much of its “star” value. “Rahul Gandhi versus Smriti Irani” would have seen the entire international media descend on this small and typically unprosperous north Indian town. Now, “KL Sharma versus Smriti Irani” has made Amethi just one of the 80 contests in UP and 543 in all of India. Even Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had campaigned for Irani in 2019 because Rahul Gandhi was her opponent, didn’t find it worth his time to come to Amethi this time.
Smriti Irani Was the Giant-killer in 2019
Rahul not contesting has robbed Amethi much of its “special” status. If Irani, the most famous woman politician in the Bharatiya Janata Party, defeats Sharma, it will not be seen as a great achievement. But if Sharma wins, it will be one of the top stories of 2024. But will he? Can he become a giant-killer by beating the giant-killer of 2019?
People in Amethi, as well as many political observers I spoke to in UP, do not rule out that possibility. During my visit to Amethi last week, I heard many locals say, “Is baar to lagata hai ki Smriti Irani ko Gandhi Parivar apane pyaade se haravaa rahi hai. Is liye Rahul yahan nahin aaye.” (It looks like the Gandhi Family is going to let its pawn defeat Smriti Irani. Which is why, Rahul chose not to contest from Amethi.)
And herein lies a big truth about the BJP’s woes elsewhere in Uttar Pradesh, a state that must give the BJP at least as many seats (62) as it did five years ago, if not more, for it to gain a simple majority in the Lok Sabha in 2024. If the election of Irani, a senior leader in the Modi government, is “phansaa hua hai” ─ colloquial for a seat that is “stuck” or has become tough to win ─ it means the party is facing rough weather in many other places. The common refrain in UP these days is that the BJP’s tally could come down to about 50.
A two-hour drive from Lucknow had brought me to Amethi on a hot Monday morning. That things were not going smoothly for Irani became evident from the very first person I met. An old friend of mine, he is an RSS Swayamsevak who had a specific responsibility in the BJP’s voter mobilisation. He did acknowledge that the infrastructure in Amethi has improved considerably “due to Smritiji’s efforts”. New roads have been built, also a flyover. Electricity supply has become better. A couple of small industries have also arrived, although some old ones have shut.
Disquiet Among Rss Workers Over Local Issues
However, to my surprise, this RSS worker was also critical of the BJP candidate and didn’t want her to win this time. First and seconds reasons, he explained, are her ahankaar (arrogance) and the bigger ahankaar of her staff, i.e., that she does not treat local BJP and RSS workers with respect.
Then he mentioned a third reason, which is at work in many constituencies in UP—indeed, all over the country. Unlike in 2014 and 2019, there is no single national narrative from the BJP that is influencing voters' choices this time. The party expected the construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya to deliver nearly all 80 seats into its kitty.
However, “the political appeal of this factor is limited only to the BJP’s core voters,” Dr. Suman Gupta, editor of Jan Morcha, a Hindi newspaper widely read in the Ayodhya region, said to me that all Hindus are happy that the temple has been built, but a majority of them do not want the name of Lord Ram to be used for electoral gains. As for the abrogation of Article 370, which the Modi government regards as one of its historic achievements, is not something common voters (outside the party’s loyal supporters) even talk about.
As a result, local state-specific and constituency-specific issues have acquired considerable salience in the 2024 poll. With the appeal of the Ram Temple remaining limited and the BJP’s efforts to polarize voters on Hindu-Muslim lines largely failing, local caste equations have become more decisive. A corollary of this is the increased importance of the relative merits and demerits of the candidates of contesting parties.
What this means is that the BJP’s strategy of projecting Modi as the candidate in all the 543 constituencies ─ with the actual candidates of the BJP and its allies serving as his proxies ─ has not quite worked. People are not voting only on Modi’s name, my RSS friend told me.
“Are there also other RSS workers who think like you?” I asked him. In response, he took me to Ramganj, about 20 kilometers from Amethi. He introduced me to half-a-dozen RSS workers. All of them were Modi supporters, and held anti-Congress views that are typical in the Hindutva community. Interesting as it was to hear such “WhatsApp University gyan”, I also noticed that none of the RSS workers expressed confidence that the BJP would return to power with a comfortable majority.
Their principal grudge against her was her inaction in a matter that has been agitating the people in Ramganj area for many years who have been demanding that Ramganj be taken away from Gauriganj district (Gauriganj being the district headquarters of Amethi parliamentary constituency) and made a part of the neighbouring Sultanpur district because Sutanpur is much closer to us Ramganj, just ten kilometers away, than Gauriganj, which is nearly 60 kilometers away.
Uttar Pradesh's longest expressway, the Purvanchal Expressway linking Lucknow and Varanasi, passes through Sultanpur. Transport facilities on this route are excellent and the people can reach Sultanpur in no time. In contrast, public transport to Gauriganj is very poor. Hiring a tempo costs a lot of money. Therefore, going to Gauriganj for any government-related work is a big headachefor them.
An issue like this may seem trivial to outsiders. However, to locals, it has an importance all its own. It also reminds them of Irani’s broken promises. During her election campaign five years ago, she had asked the voters ─ “Kamal ka batan dabaao, 13 rupaye kilo shakkar paao (Vote for the BJP and get sugar at Rs 13 per kg).” But Sugar now sells at upwards of Rs 40 per kg. A video clip of this speech of hers in 2019 has gone viral in the constituency.
What is Working for ─ and Against ─ Irani
A few other Amethi-specific issues have also made Irani’s campaign difficult. When the UPA was in power at the Centre (2004-14), Rahul Gandhi facilitated the establishment of a satellite campus of the Indian Institute of Information Technology (IIIT) in 2005. The Modi government closed this prestigious institution in 2016 on the flimsy pretext that the law did not permit a remote campus. In another instance of political vendetta, last year the BJP government in UP suspended the license of the 100-bed Sanjay Gandhi Hospital, the first major healthcare institution established in Amethi in 1989. It was reopened after a court order. Congress candidate Sharma was at the forefront of the local struggle against its closure.
To erase the tag of being an outsider, Irani (a resident of Mumbai, where she made a name as a famous actress in TV serials) has built a house in Amethi. However, Sharma has an edge over her in this regard because, being a local—and being soft-spoken and amiable—he has established intimate relations with all sections of the electorate.
What is working in Irani’s favour is the “labhaarthi” factor. A fairly large section of poor families are happy with the Modi government because they are beneficiaries of the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana that provides 5 kg wheat or rice and 1 kg of pulses for free every month. But will this advantage trump over several negatives for the BJP ─ especially the two burning issues of mehangayi (rise in the prices of all essential commodities) and berozgaari (youth unemployment), which the Congress has raised effectively in its campaign? Won’t at least a section of undecided voters be swayed by the many pro-people promises the Congress has given in its manifesto?
Add to this one more negative for the BJP. The bickering within the BJP in Amethi is out in the open. Sanjay Singh, an influential local BJP leader who belongs to a princely family, is not campaigning for her. In contrast, Sharma’s prospects have brightened due to spirited campaign by Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav, chief of the Samajwadi Party, an ally of the Congress.
The walls of Amethi are plastered with posters saying “Har Dil Mein Modi” (Modi is in everyone’s heart). Not quite true.
As I travelled back to Lucknow late at night, I marvelled at the excellent quality of roads in Amethi. This is also true about highways and other district roads all over Uttar Pradesh. The credit for this must surely go to the Modi government at the Centre and the government of Yogi Adityanath in the state. Nevertheless, to sum up the election scene in Amethi, I must recall the vivid assessment by my friend Dr Suman Gupta, editor of Jan Morcha newspaper. After travelling across the constituency, she wrote: “Amethi ki chikani sadakon par Smriti ki gaadi hichakole khaa rahee.” (On Amethi’s smooth roads, Smriti Irani’s car is having a bumpy ride.)
(The writer, who served as an aide to India’s former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, is the founder of the ‘Forum for a New South Asia – Powered by India-Pakistan-China Cooperation’. He tweets @SudheenKulkarni and welcomes comments at sudheenkulkarni@gmail.com. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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