Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) has emerged as the kingmaker in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to secure a simple majority on its own, winning 240 seats.
The pre-poll National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has won 293 seats, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is stated to take oath for the third consecutive time. This time, however, the BJP is dependent on two crucial allies: the JD(U) and the TDP (Telugu Desam Party).
Friends-turned-foe-turned-friends-again Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu now occupy central positions in what is being termed the return of the coalition era, as both are being wooed by both the NDA and the INDIA bloc.
The JDU was expected to be the weak link of the NDA in Bihar, as the national media believed that Nitish Kumar’s popularity had declined due to his constant flip-flops. Contrary to expectations, JD(U) performed relatively well in the Lok Sabha elections, winning 12 of the 16 seats on offer, down four seats from its 2019 tally. In terms of vote share, it recorded around 19 percent, down by 3 percent.
The senior partner in the alliance, the BJP, won 12 seats (-5) and recorded a 21 percent vote share (-3 percent). This disproves, to some extent, the argument that the JD(U) was the weak link of the alliance.
Nitish seems to have maintained a hold on his key vote bank of women, the Kurmi/ Koeri caste, a section of EBCs, and Mahadalits. He even fielded a Muslim candidate (he used to have significant support from the community at one point in time).
BJP Can't Afford Any Misadventure Now
If the sutradhar of the INDIA bloc had remained with them, they would have swept all 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state, supporters of Nitish claim. The 30 seats that the NDA has won in Bihar are crucial to the mandate that has emerged, with the BJP failing to cross the halfway mark on its own.
There were rumours that Sharad Pawar had called him and offered a Deputy PM post, and memes of ‘Nitish sabke hain’ (Nitish is everyone's own) started circulating on social media. He even landed in Delhi on the same flight as Tejashwi Yadav. However, JDU has clarified that it is committed to remaining within the NDA and has given a letter of support to the BJP.
What a turnaround for a man who was written off by political pundits three months ago when he made a gharwapsi to the NDA in January this year. Nitish will bargain for key ministries and the BJP remaining below 272 is an insurance policy for his government in the state of Bihar.
The BJP can’t afford any misadventure in Bihar, as the two allies now share an interdependent relationship. The governments of Nitish and Modi depend on each other’s support.
Sushasan Babu, as Kumar is called by his supporters, was the undisputed leader of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar and is credited with taking Bihar to the path of development after the “Jungle Raj” of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)’s Lalu Prasad.
However, his latest flip-flop when he left the INDIA bloc and joined the NDA weakened his position. He was even seen in rallies pleading with the PM, seeking forgiveness, and promising not to return to the INDIA bloc, cutting a sorry state of affairs.
Future of JD(U)
Nitish is a good example of personification in Indian politics: Nitish Kumar is the JD(U) and the JD(U) is Nitish Kumar. Over the years, he has crushed all competition within the party. He propped Sharad Yadav against George Fernandes and then dumped Sharad Yadav when he tried to emerge as a parallel power centre. Upendra Kushwaha left the JD(U) in 2012 due to Nitish's dictatorial attitude and went on to form the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP).
He appointed poll strategist Prashant Kishor as the party’s vice president after he crafted a strategy to defeat the Narendra Modi-led BJP. Kishor was touted as Kumar’s successor, but the two fell out due to differences over the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and other matters.
With rumours about his health, question marks remain over the future of the JD(U). Who after Nitish Kumar? The party is primarily made up of members of the erstwhile Janata Dal in Bihar. With the weakening of the RJD, many of its leaders joined the JD(U). A joke in Bihar is that the membership of both parties is complimentary.
No leader commands similar clout as Nitish in the JD(U). So, the party faces the risk of disintegration once Kumar steps down/retires, and many leaders would either move to the RJD or join the BJP unless he appoints a second-in-command and oversees a transition during his tenure. The majority of the JD(U) leaders are going to be worried about the future of their party.
Nitish realises this and is reported to have charted a reorganisation plan for the party. Regional parties in India are family-controlled, although, till now, it has been reported that his son Nishant Kumar is not interested in politics.
However, it remains to be seen whether he receives support from senior and young leaders of the party. Power transfer in parties is not a smooth affair, as seen in the TDP, the SP, and even the RJD. It creates hiccups and has even led to rebellions and splits.
Nitish needs the help of the BJP to establish his son as a political heir. Why would the BJP oblige him? The party was thinking of replacing him as chief minister, taking the reins of the government in Bihar, and accommodating him in the cabinet.
Nitish may not be interested in this because there is no upside for him. A cabinet minister under the protocol is lower than a chief minister. But he could use this opportunity (as the BJP needs his support at the centre) to position Nishant as his successor. Interesting times in Bihar.
(Amitabh Tiwari is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba on X [formerly Twitter]. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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