In a stunning turnaround, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), eyeing a hat-trick of clean sweeps in all 25 Lok Sabha seats was trounced in 11 seats, barely six months after regaining power in Rajasthan. This marks a huge comeback for the Congress which had failed to win a single seat in the last two Lok Sabha elections in the desert state. Political circles are now buzzing over time about what caused this rude jolt to the Saffron brigade and whether this significant setback could trigger a major upheaval in the Rajasthan BJP. Many are also wondering how these results will impact the future of Chief Minister (CM) Bhajan Lal Sharma.
In looking for the reasons which ensured a Congress resurgence in this bipolar state, the dissensions in the Rajasthan BJP must rank at the top. For years, the state BJP has been deeply divided between the RSS lobby that now calls the shots and loyalists of former CM Vasundhara Raje. Though it won the last Assembly elections, the BJP made no serious effort to bridge the internal frictions.
The infighting was so severe that two months ago, even Union Cabinet Minister, Gajendra Singh Shekhawat openly lamented that BJP MLAs in his area were hardly helping his campaign. Inevitably, the infighting within the Saffron camp led to poor candidate selection.
For instance, in Churu, the BJP dumped the sitting MP Rahul Kaswan who along with his father Ram Singh Kaswan had won the seat for the last five Lok Sabha elections. Kaswan was widely believed to have been dropped due to his animosity with former Leader of the Opposition, Rajendra Rathore, a Rajput strongman of the area. A major Jat leader, Kaswan soon switched over to the Congress - and has now won the seat handsomely.
The Obvious Sidelining of Vasundhara Raje
In contrast, the BJP retained Barmer MP Kailash Chaudhary, the Agriculture Minister in the Modi ministry despite internal reports that he was losing grassroots connect in the past five years. While the rise of independent Ravindra Bhati has damaged the BJP on this seat, Chaudhary’s failure to take local party leaders into confidence has now caused a huge loss whereby the sitting Union Minister has finished a poor third – and the Congress romped home by over one lakh votes!
Linked to the deep rift, is the obvious sidelining of Vasundhara Raje that the BJP top brass signalled by appointing first-term MLA Bhajan Lal Sharma as the CM after the party won the assembly polls last December. Since then, Raje’s marginalization has been rather crude and complete. She had little say in ticket distribution for the Lok Sabha, was given no specific election-related responsibility, and shockingly was not invited to be a part of even public rallies by PM Modi.
A miffed Raje then confined herself only to her son’s campaign in Jhalawar which Dushyant Singh has now won by a margin of over three lakh votes! Her absence from campaigns in other seats is seen as a key factor for BJP’s losses.
If the ugly tug-of-war among BJP leaders was hardly inspiring, party cadres were further demoralized as Congress turncoats got Lok Sabha tickets while long-term aspirants were ignored by the high command. The most glaring example was that of Jyoti Mirdha, a former Congress MP who was fielded in Nagaur despite having lost in the Assembly elections in December. Similarly, Mahendrajit Malviya, a cabinet minister in the previous Ashok Gehlot government, was made the BJP candidate in Banswara within days of switching over from the Congress. Despite all his machinations, Malviya lost this tribal seat by nearly 2.5 lakh votes.
In contrast, the Congress seemed a lot less divided than in the last assembly polls. While the rift between former CM Ashok Gehlot and former Deputy CM Sachin Pilot persists, the two stalwarts tried not to air their differences. Despite the strong comeback by the Congress now, it’s a sobering reality that Gehlot’s son Vaibhav lost by over two lakh votes, slumping to a second successive Lok Sabha defeat on the Jalore seat.
The Jat Factor
What helped the Congress cause immensely was stitching up strategic alliances and supporting their partners strongly. In the three seats which the Congress conceded to other parties, the allies emerged victorious in all three. If the RLP’s Hanuman Beniwal won from the Nagaur seat, the Bhartiya Adivasi Party won the Banswara seat in the tribal belt of south Rajasthan even though the original Congress candidate did not withdraw from the contest. But the most impressive win was for the CPM candidate Amra Ram Chaudhary who thumped the saffron-clad, sitting BJP MP Sumedhanad Saraswati by over 72000 votes.
Beyond accommodating allies, the Congress also seemed to have got its caste arithmetic right. On the other hand, the BJP’s failure to manage caste equations in the Lok Sabha battle has led to significant losses in the Jat-dominated Shekhawati. Besides encashing the lingering impact of the farmers' agitation and the youth anger over the Agniveer scheme for Army recruitment, the ‘Jat-factor’ is said to have played a key role in the Congress winning all the four seats of the Shekhawati region – Churu, Jhunjhunu, Sikar and Nagaur.
In fact, Jat anger and protests since January to press for their inclusion in the central OBC list is being seen as a key factor in the BJP losing east Rajasthan seats of Dholpur and Bharatpur. Similarly, the Gujjar anger over Sachin Pilot being denied the CM post in 2018 seems to have subsided and helped the Congress grab the vital seats of Dausa and Sawai Madhopur where the party fielded known Pilot loyalists. Overall, the results of these hot seats have rung alarm bells for the ruling BJP which appears to be losing its base in east Rajasthan and in the Shekhawati belt quite substantially.
Finally, beyond the factors for the BJP's national setback (a decline in the Modi wave, little traction for Ram Temple or nationalist themes), the sharp dip in Rajasthan is being linked to the lack-lustre performance of the state government. Ever since Bhajan Lal Sharma took over the reins in December, a perception has been created that his government is simply sitting on its winter electoral success and is doing precious little. Even the big claim of taking steps to resolve the state’s water crisis through agreements with the Madhya Pradesh and Haryana governments got blunted by the refusal to share full details of the agreements – and a buzz got generated that the BJP is trying to hide something.
Not surprisingly, speculation is now rife that the BJP losses in Rajasthan may ignite a storm within the Rajasthan BJP, especially for CM Bhajan Lal Sharma. Though he campaigned extensively and held many road shows and rallies, the debutant MLA turned CM could not create a big impact on voters. With the BJP losing even in his home district of Bharatpur, Bhajan critics of the BJP are said to be getting restless. The results are also a lifeline for Raje loyalists who claim that a stronger BJP in Rajasthan needs Vasundhara at the helm.
Overall, an air of gloom and suspense hangs over the Saffron brigade in Rajasthan. While the Congress is celebrating the Lok Sabha results, the BJP is fumbling for an explanation for its sharp decline. As bitter factions within the ruling BJP jostle, a spell of uncertainty seems set to worsen a sizzling summer in the desert state.
(The author is a veteran journalist and expert on Rajasthan politics. Besides serving as a Resident Editor at NDTV, he has been a Professor of Journalism at the University of Rajasthan in Jaipur. He tweets at @rajanmahan. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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