You’d be forgiven for thinking that it’s the general elections. The by-election in Lahore’s constituency of NA-120 has galvanised both big and new political players, their electoral machines, and the media. In utter defiance of campaign expenditure rules, large swathes of the constituency are festooned with billboards and banners, dominated by the two parties with the most at stake – the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
The seat was vacated when former prime minister Nawaz Sharif was disqualified by the Supreme Court for an undeclared income in the Panama leaks corruption case. The apex court had also ordered further corruption cases against the Sharif family to be tried under accountability courts, now underway. Judgements are due next March, perilously close to the next elections.
By-Election a Test of Public’s Priorities
Located in the pulsating heart of old Lahore – Gawal Mandi, Anarkali, and Chaurbaji are some of its legendary sub-localities which serve up a concentrated dose of Lahori culture – NA-120 is also currently the political pulse of a country in flux. You could even argue that in the absence of a culture of political polling, this Sunday’s NA-120 could be a barometer for the actual general elections, due to be held next year.
Meanwhile, the 17 September by-election is a signpost to the political future of the Nawaz Sharif family. It is being seen as a referendum on whether the public prioritises the corruption charges for which the family is being tried.
Nawaz Sharif, party leaders and daughter Maryam have played the victim card, claiming a conspiracy to oust a prime minister who had been delivering on economy and development.
On a Sunday afternoon in Anarkali, food stalls and road-side restaurants are busy serving lassi, paye and nihari. Sucking on a hookah in the middle of the brunch crowd is 87-year-old Mohammad Hussein, an NA-120 voter. He says he attended Mohammad Ali Jinnah’s jalsa here, just a few feet from where we are standing and has always voted for the League (read: Pakistan Muslim League). But what about the revelations of corruption, I ask. By now a crowd has gathered. “What about Imran Khan’s moral corruption?” the men ask me in colourful Punjabi, tittering.
The constituency is composed largely of conservative voters from the trader class, lower middle class or poor.
Maryam Nawaz and “Practical Politics”
For the last few weeks, Maryam Nawaz has been leading the campaign charge; and so, the election is also a test of whether she is a canny political operator, able to deliver electorally. While she was on the campaign trail, an anchor asked her whether NA-120 marked her first step into practical politics. Maryam, looking slightly peeved, replied,“I’ve been in practical politics for a while now.”
Her mother, and the PMLN’s candidate for NA-120, Begum Kulsoom Nawaz is in London undergoing cancer treatment. Her father is also in London, tending to his ailing wife. The chief minister of Punjab and Nawaz Sharif’s younger brother Shahbaz Sharif is also abroad.
The Sharifs maintain that it is because he doesn’t want to be seen using public funds and administrative machinery to aid the campaign. Hogwash, say critics and opponents: Shahbaz Sharif’s absence is because of a growing rift between the brothers over the party’s post-Panama verdict strategy.
Whatever the truth, there can be no doubt that the telegenic Maryam’s evening cavalcades showered with rose petals through NA-120 is the kind of outreach and spectacle the party’s voters like. She has also been reaching out to the Christian community and the rightwing vote bank in equal measure. It isn’t just important that the PMLN wins, but wins with a decent margin.
Dr Yasmeen Rashid – Nawaz Sharif’s Closest Contender in 2013
In 2013 Nawaz Sharif won, but his closest rival was PTI’s Dr Yasmeen Rashid with a difference of about 40,000 votes. That is a sizeable difference but still raised a few eyebrows. One PMLN insider told me, “This time we will be worried if the margin is less than 10-15,000.” But unsure, he also then asked what I thought was the mood amongst voters.
Dr Yasmeen Rashid is a gynecologist with a political background, formerly of the PPP, now PTI. Her campaign style has been a little more awami, going door-to-door armed with voter lists and their addresses, with less of the money and pomp and show of Maryam Nawaz.
When I met her at the PTI’s office in Lahore, its marble floors streaked with mud and electoral paraphernalia, she asked me whether I had met other candidates and the NA-120 voters. When I nodded yes, she asked me deadpan, “Even Kulsoom Nawaz?”
Dr Yasmin is clear that if the PMLN has any advantage, it is in pre-poll rigging and the use of state machinery. “Development projects were started after the election date was announced, a violation of the rules,” she said, confident of victory this time. “But people want change, they don’t want the corrupt royal family anymore.”
Once the interview was done, she asked me, “Let me know what people in the constituency are saying.”
Historic Even If Not Futuristic
This by-election isn’t just important for the PTI and PMLN, it is also the first election for Jamaatud Dawa’s political face, the Milli Muslim League (MML), launched last month. The Election Commission of Pakistan has barred the party from displaying photos of JuD leader, the house-arrested Hafiz Saeed, on its election banners. But his image and his name is still being used freely.
Although it is unlikely the MML – despite a well-organised campaign focused around the mosques and madrassahs sprinkled around NA-120 – will get too many votes, they are at least bound to pull away votes from the PMLN.
For three decades, NA-120 has been the seat of choice for former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who first won from the area during the partyless elections of 1985 under dictator General Ziaul Haq. He was just 35 at the time. Nawaz Sharif and his family’s political investments of the past are closely tied to this chaotic and sprawling constituency.
Arching above the spiritual heart of Lahore in NA-120 – the shrine of Data Darbar – a new flyover called Azadi Chowk. From its wide and freshly-paved roads, a view of a metro-bus, Badshahi mosque and the Minar-e-Pakistan. Below the flyover, the drum-beaters, homeless and drug-addled malangs that thrive around shrines.
In these uneven contrasts of old and new, poor and rich, a by-election that will be historic if not futuristic.
(Amber Shamsi is a multi-media journalist who has worked for international and national media organisations as a reporter and on the editorial desk. She currently hosts a news and current affairs show on Dawn TV. She can be reached on Twitter @AmberRShamsi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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