Predicting election results in Kerala does not require artificial intelligence or machine learning. A detailed analysis of numbers and historical voting patterns will reveal that voters in the state follow a distinct algorithm for state and general elections.
In state elections, the electorate predominantly favours the Left to be in power. Conversely, in general elections, they prefer the Indian National Congress-led alliance to govern the country.
Since the formation of the state in 1957, 17 general elections have been held, including the 2024 edition. Out of these, the Congress-led alliance, the United Democratic Front (UDF), has secured seats 13 times more than the Left-led alliance, i.e., the Left Democratic Front (LDF).
Having said that, despite the Congress-led coalition having ruled the state for 32 years, which is three years more than the LDF, Kerala is always seen as a Left bastion.
Currently, Pinarayi Vijayan, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) supremo, has been in power since 2016, marking the first instance of such continuity for the party in Kerala's political history, reflecting the prevailing sentiment among Keralites and also indicating a preference for the Left over the Congress in the state.
In 2019, during Pinarayi Vijayan's tenure as the ruling chief minister, the 17th general election was held. The Congress-led coalition won 19 seats out of 20, while the LDF secured only one seat. The Left attributed its defeat to Indian National Congress leader Rahul Gandhi contesting from Wayanad, a northern constituency in Kerala, claiming that this move caused a tectonic shift in the voting pattern, ultimately leading to the defeat of Left candidates.
However, in 2021, during the state elections, the Pinarayi-led LDF retained power in Kerala with eight more seats. In 2016, the Left government had only 91 seats, whereas in 2021, it increased to 99.
Crunching the Numbers
Despite securing a significant victory in the 17th general election, just two years prior, the UDF couldn’t secure a win in state elections. Falling short by 27 seats for an absolute majority in 2021 and by 24 seats in 2016, Congress has been out of power since 2016.
If we examine the numbers from assembly constituencies, we can observe that in the 2019 general elections, 123 assembly constituencies stood with the UDF. The LDF coalition only came first in 16 constituencies, while the BJP-led coalition secured a lead in one constituency. However, during the 2021 assembly elections, as previously mentioned, the mood among Kerala voters shifted. The Left came to power for the second time with 99 seats, while the UDF could only secure 41 seats.
Once again, in this general election, Kerala voters have altered their voting pattern, opting for the UDF. Data from assembly constituencies reveals that 110 constituencies supported the UDF, while only 19 constituencies stood with the LDF. Surprisingly, 11 assembly constituencies sided with the BJP-led coalition.
Even when considering both the percentage and absolute numbers, it's evident that Keralites have supported the UDF and the LDF depending on the election cycle.
In the 2019 general elections, the UDF secured 47 percent of the votes, while the LDF received only 36 percent. The NDA managed to secure 15 percent of the votes.
In the 2021 state elections, the scenario shifted as the UDF could only secure 39 percent of the votes, whereas the LDF garnered 45 percent. The NDA obtained just 12 percent of the votes.
Now, in the 18th general elections, the trend has somewhat reverted, with the UDF securing 46 percent of the vote and the LDF managing only 34 percent. However, the NDA has increased its voting share percentage to 19 percent.
Once again, Keralites voted for the UDF, hoping to see it come to power in India and overthrow Modi. Interestingly, even though this outcome didn’t materialise, the 18 seats from Kerala for the INDIA bloc led by Congress will help to form a strong opposition if they fail to form a government.
In short, Keralites need the communists in the state and the Congress in Delhi (in the centre). However, it looks like this time Keralites have considered one more factor while voting: the performance of the Kerala government and its ministers. Even senior Communist leaders have begun openly discussing the need to re-evaluate their performance.
CPI(M) in Trouble
Despite the Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan-led Kerala government between 2016 and 2021 being marred with controversies, numerous corruption allegations, and fallouts, the welfare measures adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic helped Pinarayi secure a second term in the 2021 elections.
However, Pinarayi's second term has been disappointing for many Keralites in several aspects, which has turned out to be a crucial factor in the defeat of the Left candidates. Kerala has been suffering due to the government’s financial mismanagement, which has led to the halting of welfare pensions, student scholarships, mid-day meal funds, housing projects for the poor with central government assistance, aid for farmers, and announcements of fresh vacancies and recruitment.
Additionally, ballooning inflation has also become a topic of concern, disappointing Keralites as the government has been seen spending excessively on extravagance. Moreover, corruption allegations against Pinarayi, his daughter, and a few other ministers have also supposedly influenced the voting decision.
After the Kerala phase of the general elections held on 26 April, Pinarayi, along with his family, including his son-in-law, Muhammed Riyas, who is also a minister in the Kerala government, flew to Indonesia, Singapore, and Dubai for vacation.
When the media questioned the timing of the tour, especially while the CPIM is an active part of the INDIA bloc, which is vigorously working to remove Modi from power, AK Balan, a senior Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader and former minister, told the media that even God took a break on Sunday after six days of work.
Despite the fact that factors like anti-incumbency, poor governance, corruption, and disconnect from the ground might lead to the removal of the Communists from power in the state in the 2026 assembly elections, the numbers and patterns suggest otherwise.
Civet and Pangolin
Following the current election results, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the leading party in the ruling coalition, is on the verge of losing its party symbol, the sickle, hammer and star.
A political party is considered a national party only if any of the following conditions are fulfilled.
The candidates fielded by the party in any four or more states in the last general elections or in a state assembly must have secured not less than six per cent of the total valid votes polled in each of those states
The party must return at least four members to the House of the People in the general elections from any state or states
In the last general elections, the party must have won at least two per cent of the total number of seats in the Lok Sabha, with any fraction exceeding half being counted as one
Additionally, the party's candidates must have been elected to that House from not less than three states. Or the party is recognised as a state party in at least four states.
In this general election, even though CPIM contested 52 seats, it won only four. The election commission of India reveals that the CPIM has secured only 1.76 per cent of the total votes polled in India.
The decision will only be made in 2026 when the Election Commission of India reviews the status of Indian political parties and constituency delimitation in detail. Interestingly, the CPIM is fearful of losing its national party status and symbol.
In March, during a public meeting, Communist leader Balan warned the audience that the party risks losing its famous Hammer, Sickle, and Star symbol if it doesn't perform well in the 2024 general elections. Balan emphasised that it is time to make sincere efforts to protect the party symbol; otherwise, the party will be forced to contest elections using symbols like the civet or pangolin in the future.
(Rejimon Kuttappan is an independent journalist, labour migration specialist and author of Undocumented [Penguin 2021]. This is an opinion-explainer piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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