We have to recognise a universal truth – coalitions are not made to last. They are created out of compulsion for temporary survival, and are sometimes just the jumbled will of the electorate.
Whether it is Angela Merkel struggling to keep her government afloat in Germany (despite a disagreement with her coalition partner on immigration policies), or Theresa May’s rough days in Britain persuading Northern Ireland to come on board to help her form a government of the Tories – examples of shaky coalitions are many.
India’s History of Short-Lived Coalitions
People tend to observe the activities of a coalition like a game, wondering when a wicket will fall or the toss of the dice will upturn the status quo. Japan has had seven and eight-party led coalitions which left its people insecure and confused. Italy had a Grand Coalizione that supported the government of Enrico Lotta. Both countries have gotten used to repeated leadership changes, which did not necessarily affect major economic or foreign policies since they generally seemed to suit everyone. It is only when and if a coalition government lasts longer than one term does it reassure people of some feeling of stability and continuity. This hardly ever happens.
India’s coalitions have been particularly short-lived. Due to the nature of Indian politics, layers of colonialism, feudalism, casteism, ‘tribal chieftain-ism’ – and even dynasty (that intrinsically cultivates an undemocratic ethos, apart from contending egos and personal ambitions), still influence much of the political bargaining that goes on between potential coalition partners.
Allies are never ideologically tuned, and the regional interests they represent often clash. Going back to the first national coalition in 1977, which was papered over by a common name – the Janata Party – fell apart in 2 years for many of these reasons. Leadership positions in a coalition are always arrived at without an internal electoral process. The Janata Party, installed under Morarji Desai’s leadership and the United Front under VP Singh, fell in a short span of time because the leader was either nominated or sneakily elected. The contenders were enraged enough to find excuses to break away.
Today’s Vague Picture of a Hopeful Coalition
Charan Singh, Deve Gowda and IK Gujral were toppled because of the whims of their supporting partner, the Congress Party – which may again happen with the present coalition government in Karnataka. Bargaining, leveraging, ‘messaging’ and ‘signaling’ – the latter as is being projected regarding the relationship between the NDA and Nitish Kumar of Bihar – avoids honest and open discussions between allies. This is a chronic bane in a coalition.
Less pleasant methods like underhand exchange of money or promises of positions are also intrinsic to the formation of coalitions, which leave an unsavoury taste in the electorate’s mouth.
This adds to its cynicism towards all politicians and a constant undercurrent of contention and mistrust between politicians themselves – who basically fight for the same ground, and dream of expanding their own spheres of influence.
Coming to the presently vague picture of a coalition being attempted against Narendra Modi’s government – the players need to be brought into focus. Inherently opposed parties in Uttar Pradesh, consisting of the BSP and Samajwadi Party, are cloaking issues of survival under the guise of secularism. The Bihar leadership will be in the hands of a convicted felon if the RJD is a leading player, the CP(M), Trinamool Congress and the Congress Party in Bengal will continue forever with the ‘now I’m with you, now I’m not’ mode.
The Congress Party is currently in a weak position vis-à-vis any regional partner, while its leader’s ambitions are high.
Southern parties are habitually opposed to each other with no fear of a major outside threat. Their alliances with other parties, particularly north-based, rest entirely on local compulsions and not grander issues such as fighting against perceived communalism, or an imaginary dictatorship. The leadership of most of the potential coalitions are mini-dictators in their own parties anyway.
What a Coalition Needs vs What Can Ruin It
One aspect of overall significance is the importance each ally accords to larger, and crucial issues like:
- foreign policy and economic policy within an increasingly interlinked world (note that Trump’s isolationism and trade wars are bringing him no friends)
- programs for transparency and efficiency including the digital world
- fighting terrorism
- citizenship laws
- controlling Pakistan’s J&K agenda
- a serious commitment towards eradicating corruption
- electoral, legal and administrative reforms
- speed of decision making.
Remember, a coalition either needs a strong and acknowledged leader who can facilitate a consensus for every policy decision made, or who will always take inordinately long to decide and implement any significant change. It is important to remember that the only major decision that VP Singh’s government took – namely, implementing the Mandal Commission recommendations – was taken unilaterally –without informing its supporting partners, causing the coalition to fall apart.
A coalition formed with hastily formulated agendas may just temporarily cover up differing regional aspirations, contradictory caste interests, lack of inspirational and firm leadership or any kind of nation-binding glue.
Secularism alone cannot be a façade to create what will essentially be seen as an ‘Agenda for Replacement’ posing as an ‘Agenda for Governance’.
Moreover, India is and has always been a secular, all-inclusive nation. Therefore, it is hard to imagine its people being convinced that both are in danger. If the majority of the population feels it is being falsely blamed for the flaws of hot-headed right-wingers while the minority is being appeased unjustly to compensate for them, the backlash will not help the hopeful coalitionists and more importantly, the country’s truly secular character as a whole.
(The author is a social activist and former president of the Samata Party, a coalition partner in the NDA-I government. She tweets @Jayajaitly. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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