The arrest of former Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao's daughter and Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) MLC K Kavitha could probably not have come at a worse time for the party, which is reeling under defections and losing electoral ground after its defeat in the 2023 Assembly elections.
The BRS won 39 seats and polled 37 per cent of the vote, just two per cent less than the Congress, which stormed to power in the state by winning 64 seats. The BJP substantially improved its vote share and seat tally by polling 14 per cent of the vote – double compared to 2018 – and eight seats, which is an eight-fold increase compared to last time.
The ruling Congress party has already set in motion an operation to lure BRS legislators. Reports indicate that more than a dozen MLAs of the pink party are already in touch with the grand old party. Chief Minister Revanth Reddy is, perhaps, waiting to take the number to 26, two-thirds of the BRS' strength in the Assembly, in order to bypass the anti-defection law.
The Congress' electoral performance was weak in Hyderabad and adjoining areas during the elections. On the contrary, the BRS – though it lost power – performed spectacularly in the state capital owing to visible development. The Congress now wants to improve its stake and dent a body blow to the BRS in Hyderabad.
Meanwhile, the BJP is successfully luring BRS' sitting MPs and former MLAs. Many of them have been fielded by the saffron party in the ensuing Lok Sabha elections. Kavitha's arrest comes amidst such attacks on the BRS by both the Congress and the BJP.
Can the BRS Capitalise on Sympathy?
The BRS hopes to steer through this complex situation by launching both a legal and political battle. Apart from moving the apex court for a possible legal remedy, the BRS has called for a state-wide protest today. The party was quick to dismiss the arrest of its leader as "politically motivated" by the BJP-led central government.
The BRS is even accusing the Congress of hobnobbing with the BJP to ensure its leader is sent to jail. The party is also trying to trigger the 'Telangana sentiment' by describing the arrest as some sort of brinkmanship from Delhi on the daughter of Telangana.
However, such a strategy is unlikely to yield rich political dividends for the BRS; the party is very unlikely to reap any sympathy vote out of Kavitha's arrest. The maximum it could do is to limit the political damage. This is due to a host of factors.
Firstly, the BRS is not in power to energetically unleash political action on the issue. The party suffered the most in the recent Assembly elections due to the Congress and the BJP targeting KCR's family. The electorate was more or less convinced of the political narrative spread by the BRS' rivals, that the family benefitted the most from the party being in power in Telangana.
Against this backdrop, the antipathy towards KCR's family may overshadow any possible public response to Kavitha's arrest. The images of KT Rama Rao and T Harish Rao picking up a quarrel with ED officials at Kavitha's home during the time of her arrest would only reinforce the family-centric image of the BRS.
A senior BRS leader personally close to KCR confessed to this author that the alleged involvement of a woman politician, that too KCR's daughter, in a liquor scam, is rather unpalatable to the people, notwithstanding whether or not the accusations stand judicial scrutiny.
Thus, the BRS may lose the perception war. Besides, the saga of arrest was not a dramatic, but rather a protracted one. The arrest was, in fact, seen imminent before the Assembly elections. But for conspicuous reasons, there was a sudden twist in the tale and Kavitha was not arrested.
The BJP Seems to Be Working Out a Long-term Political Strategy
The BJP also paid the price in the Assembly elections for the political fiasco over Kavitha's arrest. Coupled with the replacement of Bandi Sanjay Kumar as the state party chief, the inaction on Kavitha contributed to the strengthening of the political perception that the pink and saffron parties were hand in glove.
The BJP will now try to use the current turn of events leading up to Kavitha's arrest to peddle a counter-narrative that the Modi regime is unsparing on the allegedly corrupt KCR and his family. The saffron brigade is desperate to shed the image that it is soft on KCR. In fact, the Congress was quick to comment that the arrest was a political drama jointly enacted by the BJP and BRS to cover up their clandestine deal.
Fearing the possibility of such a turn of events, the BRS has even reportedly tried to seek an electoral understanding with the BJP, pinning hopes on the electoral arithmetic. The BRS and the BJP together polled 51 per cent of the vote as compared to 39 per cent by the Congress in the recent Assembly elections. However, the BJP was fearing backlash due to what may be a hostile political chemistry.
The BJP seems to be working out a long-term political strategy wherein it is expecting the BRS to further weaken. The desertions from the pink party continue with remarkable alacrity. This trend is most likely to be accentuated after the Lok Sabha elections, in which the BRS is expected to make a disparaging show.
The frustration in the BRS leadership is evident from the fact that the party that refused to give even two seats each to the CPI and the CPI(M) during the Assembly elections has now yielded two Lok Sabha seats to its new electoral partner, the BSP. The BSP couldn't win even a single seat in the Assembly polls, and the state party chief and a popular former IPS officer Dr RS Praveen Kumar, also lost.
The BJP is planning to capture the space vacated by the BRS in the triangular political landscape of Telangana. Even surveys indicate the possibility of the BRS suffering a massive erosion in its vote share in the general elections as compared to the Assembly elections. The BJP seems to be the obvious beneficiary of this decline.
The arrest of Kavitha, which the BJP claims to have no say in, fits perfectly into this political and electoral strategy of the saffron party.
Back to TRS for KCR?
KCR is not expected to receive any significant support from mainstream national politicians, though Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party and Priyanka Chaturvedi of the Shiv Sena were quick to condemn the arrest. The AAP may be sympathetic to the BRS as the alleged Delhi liquor scam links both parties.
Given the fact that its principal opponent is the Congress party, the BRS couldn't join the Opposition bandwagon, i.e., the INDIA bloc, in which the grand old party has a major role. The Congress leaders suspected KCR to be a Trojan horse.
The Congress has even accused KCR of acting at the behest of PM Modi when the then Chief Minister of Telangana, KCR, was touring different state capitals, garnering the support of several Opposition leaders for his national political mission.
Following the defeat in the Assembly elections, KCR's national political project called the 'Bharat Rashtra Samithi' has also come to a grinding halt. KCR is even toying with the idea of reverting to Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), if the rules permit so.
(Prof K Nageshwar is a senior political analyst, faculty member of Osmania University, and a former MLC. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)