On the night of 4 August 2019, almost all major Kashmir-based political parties closed their ranks and came together to jointly oppose the revocation of Article 370. Representatives from around the seven parties descended on the foothills of Gupkar – an affluent lake-side locality in Srinagar where most former chief ministers are located – and marched together, voicing anger over and rejection of the momentous decisions that were to take place the following day.
Such political posturing was supposed to indicate a broad-based unity that ought to complicate the matters for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as it moved to scrap the erstwhile state’s autonomous status.
Yet more than four years later, such unity has all but dissipated as the Union Territory (UT) heads into its first major electoral exercise since 2019.
So as the J&K enters election season, its political landscape in the region is marred by far too many dissensions. Political pundits suggest that while this situation was complex, it was not entirely unpredictable.
The fractured political scene in J&K has been exacerbated by the decision of the two biggest political parties – the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – to strike out separate paths rather than fight in an alliance as had been agreed to. But how did such a turnaround come about?
J&K has five parliamentary seats, two of which are in the Hindu-majority Jammu region, and three in the Muslim-dominated Kashmir. During the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, it was the BJP which won two Jammu seats while the NC romped home three in Kashmir.
But the electoral map since then has changed in Kashmir following the delimitation that carved out new constituencies and redrew the existing ones which has rendered the political calculus, on which the traditional parties relied, practically defunct.
Some areas of South Kashmir seat like Shopian and Pulwama which have traditionally been bastions of PDP have been annexed to the Central Kashmir seat.
Certain segments of the Srinagar constituency such as Beerwah and Budgam (both NC strongholds) are now with North Kashmir seat. Likewise, Rajouri and Poonch areas that were part of the Jammu constituency (and where the BJP is courting the Pahari population by doling out reservation benefits to them) have been attached to South Kashmir.
This is not the only change that has taken place. The political canvass of J&K has also expanded wider with the emergence of at least two new parties: one led by former Congressman Ghulam Nabi Azad and another by a PDP defector and former Minister Altaf Bukhari.
With the People's Conference (PC) led by Sajad Lone also in the fray, there are now far too many bright stars in J&K’s political horizon.
NC’s Political Strategy
The BJP wagered, and perhaps correctly, that a grand reshuffle on this scale was likely to frustrate the attempt to unify Opposition in J&K as the constituent parties vie for their respective interests.
This is exactly what happened on 16 February this year when NC President Farooq Abdullah declared that the party would fight the Lok Sabha elections independently. PDP, which was aligned to NC via two groupings – INDIA Alliance and People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) – was thrown into a state of surprise.
“We were hoping to present a unified face in this election. Farooq Abdullah, as the senior most politician in Kashmir, would have covered himself in glory had he successfully seen this moment through to success,” Nayeem Akhtar, senior PDP leader and former Minister told The Quint.
The party was expecting that its allies (read NC) would cede the South Kashmir seat where former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti was to directly contest the BJP.
But the NC has announced its own candidate Mian Altaf, who is a religious leader held in high esteem by the nomad Gujjar community. The calculation behind fielding him is that in Poonch and Rajouri regions where the Gujjar population is substantial, and where his name resonates with the voters, are now part of the South Kashmir seat.
Is the BJP Relying on Proxy Candidates?
For its part, the BJP has not fielded any candidate for the seat. In a recent interview, Union Home Minister Amit Shah clearly suggested that the party will focus on two Jammu-based seats.
He said, “We don’t have a sufficient base in Kashmir to win an election. We have sufficient patience. We need to spend more time building, expanding, and strengthening our organisation in Kashmir. We will keep working and wait for the people to embrace BJP on their own.”
Instead, the party led by BJP’s informal ally in Kashmir, Altaf Bukhari has fielded Zaffar Iqbal Manhas, a Pahari candidate. The Paharis form the majority in each of these districts, and the BJP banks on the estimation that the Paharis who were recently granted the Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, will reciprocate by voting for the BJP, or any candidate allied to it.
Scramble for the Srinagar Lok Sabha Seat
In the Srinagar parliamentary seat, NC is fielding Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, a prominent Shia Muslim leader. Once again, this choice appears to have been informed by the new electoral realities occasioned by the delimitation.
Ruhullah’s influence permeates the Shia-dominated pockets of the Central Kashmir district of Budgam which were previously part of Srinagar, but have now been annexed to North Kashmir, which is generally viewed as a stronghold of Lone’s party, the PC.
It is Omar Abdullah, the former Chief Minister, who has decided to shift gears, and take the high-stakes battle to the Lone’s home turf.
“From NC’s perspective, victory in Srinagar is a foregone conclusion,” explained Zafar Choudhary, a senior editor and analyst. “The party honoured Ruhullah by fielding him from Srinagar, and now his Shia voters, a large percentage of which are also spread across parts of North Kashmir, will vote for Omar. At least that’s how NC sees it.”
Choudhary added that this wasn’t the only factor that the NC expected to work in their favour. The party has won almost 10 of the 13 elections held for the Srinagar seat and 9 out of the 12 held for the North Kashmir seat so far.
"When a senior leader like Abdullah decides to contest North, the entire party rank and file automatically redoubles their efforts to connect with the voters and energise the campaign,” he said.
Mehbooba Mufti Left With No Choice
That leaves Mehbooba Mufti locked in a one-to-one battle with NC’s Mian Altaf in the South while her party has fielded Waheed Rehman Para, an influential youth leader who was jailed by the Modi government under terrorism charges and is now out on bail, in Srinagar.
Para’s candidature is also explained by the fact that parts of Pulwama, including his hometown Tahab, which were previously part of the South Kashmir seat are now with the Srinagar constituency. In North Kashmir, the party is nominating Mir Mohammad Fayaz, a former MP.
In a surprising move, Azad dropped out of the race at the last moment. The other two parties in the fray, Bukhari’s Apni Party (AP), and Lone’s PC, appear to have entered into a tacit understanding with each other. While Lone is only contesting the North Kashmir seat, Bukhari has also fielded one candidate in Srinagar besides South Kashmir.
Politics More Fractured Than Ever
“Until 1996, the parties in J&K used to form governments on their own,” explained one Kashmir-based political analyst. “NC participated in 1996 polls amid raging militancy and promised to restore J&K’s eroded autonomy. It even passed a resolution to that effect in the Assembly.”
He said that the autonomy resolution of NC frightened the New Delhi establishment to the extent that it resolved that no single party must win majority seats on its own in future. This is evidenced by the memoir My Country, My Life of the senior BJP leader LK Advani who explains in detail how "the nation was shocked on 26 June 2000" when the resolution was adopted.
“After that, we saw the rise of PDP. And NC was gradually reduced from 40 seats to 28 in 2002, and then to 15 in 2014. All subsequent governments in J&K have been coalition governments since,” the analyst added.
This trend of forestalling a big-tent unity among regional formations, political experts said, continues to animate the policies of the BJP-led central government towards the region.
“A major factor in making Kashmir a site of enduring conflict has been power politics. That is to say how you are able to create an issue and exploit it for political ends,” Choudhary, the editor and analyst said. “It has been so since 1953.”
(Shakir Mir is an independent journalist. He has also written for The Wire.in, Article 14, Caravan Magazine, Firstpost, The Times of India and more. He tweets at @shakirmir. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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