The line-up of ministers in the new government of the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir marks a new beginning for the ruling party, the National Conference. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has placed the stamp of his personal authority on the party and the government by leaving out the heavyweights upon whom his father depended.
For the moment at least, Omar has chosen to remain the only minister from central Kashmir, although many expected him to include party heavyweights Ali Sagar and Rahim Rather.
As Organisational General Secretary, Sagar ranks next only to NC President Farooq Abdullah and Omar, who is Vice-President. Plus, Sagar represents Khanyar in the heart of Srinagar city, which elects eight members to the house of 90. All eight are among the NC’s 42 new MLAs.
Party President Farooq Abdullah, Omar’s father, told me just before the elections that Omar would be both chief minister and party president if the party were to win. So, Omar might now appoint his own men in the party organisation too.
Sagar has been mentioned as a possible speaker of the new house, but the Abdullahs might alternatively choose Rather, who used to be the finance minister, or Hasnain Masoodi (who has been an MP and a high court judge), or Nazir Gurezi or Yusuf Tarigami of the CPI(M).
Tarigami defeated the strongest Jamaat-e-Islami candidate in these elections to win his Kulgam seat for the fifth consecutive time. Gurezi, who retained his seat in the face of a strong BJP challenge, has been the deputy speaker in the past. Sagar and Rather have each been elected for the sixth time.
Installing Sagar as Speaker would make it easier for Omar to place his trusted men in charge of the party—perhaps someone like Tanvir Sadiq (who won the Zadibal seat, also from Downtown Srinagar) or Nasir Sogami, who lost the Kupwara seat.
One Each from the North and the South
From north Kashmir, Omar inducted the relatively young Javed Dar, who defeated Yawar Mir of the Apni Party to take the Rafiabad seat in the new assembly. Since he has been a minister before, Dar was the logical choice, although Sajad Shafi (Uri), Irshad Kar (Sopore) and former tourism secretary Farooq Shah (Gulmarg) had hoped to be included from that (Baramulla) district. Each has been elected for the first time.
No doubt, Omar will later induct one of the NC’s three new MLAs from Kupwara district, which is farther north (perhaps as a junior minister). Former minister Mir Saifullah (Trehgam) will hope to be included, but Qaiser Jamsheed Lone (Lolab) would be a better fit for a revamped younger party.
The only new MLA who was sure to become a minister is Sakina Itoo, for she is the senior of the only two ruling party women elected to the new assembly—and one of only three women in the entire house.
Itoo is the only minister from south Kashmir, at least for the moment. If Masoodi becomes Speaker, the eastern part of south Kashmir too would get a taste of power and influence. Of course, another MLA from further south could be inducted later, possibly as a minister of state.
Old Guard Might Chafe
These changes are bold and appear calculated to project a younger, dynamic image. However, the sidelined old guard may undermine the arrangement. Not only will the likely friction between the ministry and the lieutenant governor present possibilities for destabilisation, but there could even be an attempt to unseat the ministry after a while.
After all, Farooq Abdullah’s decision to leave out a host of his father’s key colleagues when he won the 1983 elections a year after his father’s death was one of the reasons for the revolt of 1984, through which Abdullah was replaced as chief minister by his brother-in-law, GM Shah.
That event is generally seen as a palace coup, engineered by Governor Jagmohan at the behest of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, advised by a coterie. However, the bitterness of those who had been left out of that ministry—and, one hears, the ten-and-a-half crore rupees spent by one—should not be ignored.
Omar should tread carefully, especially as he has chosen to have his sons and a close friend publicly at his home over the past few days. His effort to give his family priority, especially on weekends, when he first became chief minister in 2009 did not go well for him. On the other hand, the invisibility of Farooq Abdullah’s and Mufti Sayeed’s wives, even when they strongly supported their husbands, was a great plus for both chief ministers.
Mufti Sayeed did not involve any relative other than Mehbooba, who was installed as party president as soon as the PDP was founded in 1999. That worked well. But her indulging her brother, her uncle, and other relatives after she became chief minister in 2017 weakened the party considerably. Nor has her effort to launch her bright young daughter, Iltija, worked out—at least in this round of elections.
Congress Underperformed
The NC’s poll ally, the Congress party, will support Omar’s government in the house without being in the ministry—something it should have decided gracefully to do as soon as the results were announced. For, it only won six seats (five from the Valley), all Muslims, riding the coattails of the NC.
However, it is reported that the Congress’s six members lobbied for two cabinet berths, and wouldn’t settle for a minister of state or deputy speaker. The NC was apparently not willing to include more than one cabinet minister, upon which the Congress chose to remain outside.
The Congress ought to support the NC government in J&K in pursuit of INDIA bloc unity, the allies of which could even draw upon the charisma of the two Abdullahs for election campaigns elsewhere in the country. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav was among the prominent guests at the oath-taking ceremony in Srinagar.
Those associations may not pan out well on the home front, however. The attitudes of most Kashmiris have unfortunately reverted to the mode in which such pan-India alliances—and inclusiveness towards Jammu—may bring Omar less support than the putative confrontations that I have already predicted with sadness.
Omar deserves kudos for extending his hands firmly for inclusion, but one’s fingers are crossed with regard to how things will turn out over the coming months and years.
(The writer is the author of ‘The Story of Kashmir’ and ‘The Generation of Rage in Kashmir’. He can be reached at @david_devadas. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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