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As things stand exactly a week before polling day in south Kashmir, about the only candidate backed by presumed 'separatist’' groups such as the Jamaat-e-Islami (J-e-I) and 'Engineer' Rashid’s Awami Ittihad Party (AIP) who seems to have a chance of winning is Aijaz Mir of the J-e-I from Zainapora constituency—unless, and this suddenly became a huge If after Rashid’s release on parole from Delhi’s Tihar Jail on Wednesday, a high-voltage campaign by Rashid transforms the scenario.
Mir was a PDP MLA, and his father, Mohammed Jabbar Mir, was an NC MLA. With that substantial support base of his own, and Jamaat’s support added, he now poses a strong challenge to Showkat Ahmed Ganaie of the NC.
The NC is his chief rival because he is likely to cut substantially into the PDP’s vote share. For J-e-I voters generally favoured the PDP as long as there was no directly Jamaat-backed candidate in the fray. Indeed, in other south Kashmir constituencies, these `separatist’ parties might actually help the secular alliance to win seats.
In Kulgam, for instance, where the J-e-I held an impressive rally on Sunday, the J-e-I backed candidate is likely to cut into the vote share of the PDP—to the advantage of Yusuf Tarigami of the CPI(M), who is a part of the NC-Congress alliance.
The AIP candidate might take a few votes from the PDP’s potential kitty in the Kokernag constituency too. And the J-e-I candidate might cut into the votes of Waheed-ur Rehman Para of the PDP in the Pulwama constituency.
Jamaat Squeezed
A rukun (full member) says that many Jamaat members are talking unhappily among themselves against the decision to back candidates in these elections. The decision was taken without aforethought, he adds, and many members will not vote.
It appears that the J-e-I of Jammu and Kashmir is feeling squeezed.
On the one hand, it feels pressure from the powers that be to contest the ongoing assembly elections. On the other, it faces a financial squeeze under the continuing ban and restrictions imposed by the government.
It is because they are short of funds, J-e-I Chief Ghulam Qadir Wani told me, that his organisation is backing independent candidates, rather than fielding nominees directly, or under some common banner.
That means that they end up supporting some candidates who are barely associated with the J-e-I, or its ideology—such as that potential winner, Aijaz Mir in Zainapora.
Young Minds Cured of Pakistan
In any case, some teachers and other professionals who have been closely associated with the J-e-I talk of a changed perspective, an acceptance of Indianness and the Indian constitution, and a desire for continued peace and stability. It seems to be a significant trend. At most, they talk of Article 370, or at least getting full statehood.
The corollary is that at least the relatively young are no longer attracted towards Pakistan, partly owing to the economic distress there—and as a high school teacher puts it, "Imran Khan exposed the real face of that army."
Indeed, one high school student walked out of a classroom discussion on Wednesday, saying "I can’t be part of this," when a few other students spoke of the aspiration for independence. That student wants to be an army officer.
For older members such as (Jamaat chief) Qadir Wani, 82, Pakistan still means as much as India, but then they feel the squeeze of the ban and other restrictions imposed since 2019.
The organisation’s assets have been frozen, and many J-e-I members have been sacked as government employees since the constitutional changes in 2019. Even relatives have been transferred or sacked. Others have been investigated for their land and other assets. The organisation is still banned.
Wani says he too has been visited by revenue and other officials several times, asking how much land he has.
Hope for a Protective Cover
No wonder, the chief says that the outfit hopes through these elections to get these sorts of pressures off the back of Jamaat and its members and associates. He says the main aim of contesting is "to serve the public," but it’s clear that that basically means giving the J-e-I the ability to continue its activities—many of which involve public services.
He points out that J-e-I runs a hospital in Pulwama, providing free services, and that members did a lot of relief work after floods devastated the Valley in 2014.
In many places, the J-e-I has chosen to support men who threw their hats into the electoral ring after being denied a ticket by a party—such as Mir in Zainapora.
In Pulwama, it is supporting Dr Talat, who was earlier with the Apni Party. He left the party, which appears to be scattering, having no doubt calculated that Jamaat support would get him more votes than an Apni Party ticket.
There is a similar pattern among some of the candidates contesting on the flag and symbol of 'Engineer' Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP). For example, Raja Waheed took an AIP ticket for the Shopian seat after being denied a ticket in PDP, for which he has been an active member for several years.
He talks glowingly of PDP founder Mufti Mohammed Sayeed and bitterly criticises the coterie around PDP President Mehbooba Mufti.
It’s not that all candidates from these 'separatist' parties were denied tickets by other parties. Altaf Ahmed Bhat, who is contesting the Rajpora seat for AIP, has been a social activist in and around the Zadoora village. He is contesting an election for the first time.
In any case, close associates of Rashid point out that he has never made any specifically anti-national statement. He only has that image for antics such as publicly holding a beef party, and talking of the UN resolutions.
High Stakes
Both the J-e-I and AIP are still outsiders, although they hold the potential to spring surprises at the hustings—as 'Engineer' very well might.
As the impressive J-e-I rally at Kulgam showed, such groups have again been given ample space to contest.
(The writer is the author of ‘The Story of Kashmir’ and ‘The Generation of Rage in Kashmir’. He can be reached at @david_devadas. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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