[This is Part I of a three-part curtain-raiser on the J&K assembly elections scheduled between 18 September and 1 October.]
The BJP appears to be pulling out all stops to prevent a 'secular' coalition from winning a majority in Jammu and Kashmir, for which assembly elections are to be held in late September. While the National Conference and the Congress are engaged in talks to reach a pre-poll seat adjustment, the ruling establishment appears to be working harder to prevent that sort of alliance from coming to power.
The strategy is apparently three-fold.
One, the BJP is working hard on the ground across the Hindu-dominated portions of the Jammu division to turn around the disillusionment there. Two, it is trying to win as many seats as it can in the Kashmir Valley, plus ensure the victories of non-BJP parties and candidates who could support it to form a government. And three, it will seek to ensure that others who would not back a 'secular' government win seats.
After all, the Centre’s basic aim is to ensure that the assembly—the first of the union territory which was created through the constitutional changes of 2019—does not pass a resolution seeking to junk those changes. That would be a huge reversal for the government, in domestic politics, in the international arena, and—most damaging—among the party’s core support base.
Spoilers for NC
Let us deal with the third prong of this complex strategy first. Parole for 'Engineer' Rashid, who recently won the Baramulla seat in the Lok Sabha from Tihar Jail, could result in his candidates stymieing NC in several constituencies. A Delhi Sessions court has sought the NIA’s response to Rashid’s request for parole, submitted mid-week.
Rashid’s brother is bound to win the Langate seat, which Rashid had held since 2008. A high-intensity campaign by Rashid could also turn around several other seats. It could be particularly useful for the ruling establishment if he were to end up preventing `secular’ victories in Uri, Sopore, Sonawari, and Trehgam.
The Jamaat-e-Islami too could directly participate in elections. That would knock the bottom out of the PDP’s chances in constituencies like Wachi and Kulgam.
By deciding to field her daughter, Iltija, from Bijbehara, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti has already damaged her party by alienating its one sure winner, Abdul Rehman Veeri, who has held the Bijbehara seat for decades. Iltija’s `city girl’ image might not be easily accepted.
On the other hand, of course, the party has been revitalised with the tandem return to it this week of former ministers Basharat Bukhari (of Wagoora-Kreeri) and Haq Khan of Lolab, and former MLA Syed Bashir Ahmed of Rajpora.
Observers wonder what might be behind these sudden returns—and whether, after the elections, the PDP might refuse to back an NC government on the ground that NC refused a seat-sharing arrangement during the Lok Sabha polls.
Potential Allies
Let us now turn to the second prong of the putative strategy—victories of potential backers. An insider revealed that the BJP has been promised five seats from Lone’s party, and seven from the Apni Party. Both would be willing for a coalition with the BJP.
The former should win at least three, particularly while Shia leader Imran Ansari is in the PC. The Apni Party could win former minister Hassan Mir’s Tangmarg, Yawar Mir’s Rafiabad, and perhaps Bukhari’s (likely) Chhanapora. It may also field Syed Shafat Qazmi, the son of the keeper of a prominent shrine in Bandipora.
However, the Apni Party appears to be scattering, with the departure last week of former ministers Chaudhary Zulfiqar Chaudhary in Poonch (who joined the BJP) and Usman Majid in Bandipora. Party chief Altaf Bukhari has seemed to be distancing himself from the BJP since the Lok Sabha results.
Meanwhile, the third party through which the BJP had initially hoped to get proxy seats from the Valley remains a long-stuck-in-take-off-mode little party. It is led by former chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad.
However, there are individuals who could win particular seats, either as independents or under one or other party label, who might back a BJP government.
The most prominent of these is former deputy chief minister Muzaffar Hussain Baig, whose wife stated that he was likely to contest the Baramulla seat. (However, Baig told me 'he had not yet decided' for sure.) He would be a strong contender there if he does contest.
Ishfaq Jabbar, who was expelled from NC last year, could put up a credible fight from Ganderbal, even if he faces NC Vice-president Omar Abdullah (Party sources say that is likely). Other potential BJP backers could also win such seats as Sonawari, Tral, and Rajpora.
Overall then, the BJP could hope for about ten backers between the Apni Party, PC, and others—and hope that another five to ten members from the Valley would not back a `secular’ coalition. I will discuss the hopes and strategies of a BJP victory in Part II.
(The writer is the author of ‘The Story of Kashmir’ and ‘The Generation of Rage in Kashmir’. He can be reached at @david_devadas. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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