As polling for the first phase of Jharkhand Assembly elections is now underway on 13 November, the 28 seats reserved for the tribal community are pivotal to the emerging tussle between the ruling JMM-Congress and the BJP.
The BJP has been constantly engaged in a campaign to agitate the tribals by linking the issue of "infiltration" with their identity, while the JMM-Congress has responded by focusing on the Sarna religion code and the domicile policy (based on 1932 as the cut-off year for land records).
So, who is winning Jharkhand?
Voting for the 81-member Jharkhand assembly will be held first on 13 November for 43 seats in the first phase and on 20 November for 38 seats in the second phase. The results will be declared on 23 November along with the Maharashtra elections.
The 43 seats for which voting will take place in the first phase include 14 seats in the Kolhan region, nine in the Palamu region and 20 in the Chotanagpur region. Voting on twenty tribal seats will be held in the first phase itself.
From the ruling INDIA bloc, the JMM in total is contesting 43 seats, the Congress 30, the RJD six and CPI-ML four, and from the opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the BJP has fielded candidates in 68 seats, the AJSU party in 10, the JD(U) in two and the LJP in one.
The Congress and the RJD have fielded their candidates in two seats of the Palamu region, Chhatarpur and Bishrampur, and the JMM and the CPI-ML have both fielded their candidates in Dhanwar — one of the state's prestigious seats from where BJP state president and former Chief Minister Babulal Marandi is contesting.
Apart from these, many other regional and left parties have fielded candidates on their different assembly seats.
BJP Desperate to Regain Lost Ground
After the formation of a separate state (15 November 2000), this is the fifth election in this mineral-rich and politically significant state, where 28 assembly seats are reserved for STs in the Kolhan, North Chotanagpur and Santhal Pargana divisions, which pave the road to power.
Back in 2019, the JMM with the Congress and the RJD won 47 seats with 36.35 percent of the vote share. On the other hand, the BJP contested the election alone and won 25 seats with 33.37 percent of the vote. The latter won only two seats reserved for tribals. In the recent Lok Sabha polls of the state's 14 parliamentary seats, the BJP won eight seats but was defeated in all the five tribal seats. This has caused significant restlessness within the BJP.
Senior Political analyst Baijnath Mishra told The Quint, " Jharkhand has never seen such a fierce election before. That is because Prime Minister Narendra Modi has kept a close eye on snatching power from Hemant Soren who has emerged as a big challenger for the BJP. Hemant is the most popular leader among the tribals, but there is reason to believe that this time, the BJP seems to be recovering from its drought in the tribal areas. The difficulties of the Congress party are clearly visible in this face-to-face fight. If Congress suffers more losses, there will be problems for the JMM too."
PM Modi has already visited Jharkhand four times in the past 55 days and has addressed seven rallies. He also held a road show in Ranchi on 10 November. Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has also held election rallies in Lohardaga, Dhanbad, and Jamshedpur West.
On the other hand, JMM veteran and Chief Minister Hemant Soren and star campaigner Kalpana Soren (also an MLA and his wife) are leading from the front with whirlwind tours and back-to-back meetings for both JMM and Congress candidates across the state. Hemant is contesting from the Barhet seat (Santhal Pargana), while Kalpana has been fielded from the Gandey seat (North Chotanagpur).
Voting on these two high-stake seats is on 20 November.
Hemant and Kalpana are continuously targeting the BJP and the central government by strongly raising the claim of the state government's Rs 1,36,000 crore dues on coal companies. Hemant does not forget to say in his meetings that this “belongs to all of Jharkhand’s people. This is the money of our hard work and land. I was put in jail only because of demanding this.”
Mukesh Birua, central president of the Ho Mahasabha, told The Quint, “The demands of the tribals in Kolhan are directly related to the security of water, the forest, and the land. The issue of infiltrators being raised on the election pitch seems unnecessary.” Ho tribals are an effective vote factor in Kolhan, along with a significant population of the Santhal tribals.
Key Candidates
The BJP has fielded all the big tribal faces who had lost in the Lok Sabha elections or were not given tickets, while rebels are troubling the party on some seats.
JMM veterans Deepak Birua, Dashrath Gagrai, Ramdas Soren, and Niral Purti, who are contesting elections in the Kolhan region, are a big challenge for the BJP. On the other hand, it seems to be posing a challenge to the ruling parties in the Palamu and Chhotanagpur regions.
Drawing a blank in the Kolhan region in the 2019 elections, the BJP also has high big hopes from former Chief Minister and a six-time MLA Champai Soren, who left the JMM and joined BJP on 30 August this year, and is contesting from Saraikela. Ganesh Mahali, who recently left the BJP and joined the JMM, has been fielded against Champai Soren.
Another high-profile candidate is Purnima Das Sahoo, Odisha Governor Raghubar Das’s daughter-in-law, who the BJP has fielded from the unreserved seat of East Jamshedpur. Raghubar Das lost the seat to independent candidate Saryu Roy in 2019. This time, Saryu Roy is contesting with a JD(U) ticket in Jamshedpur West, where he will face Congress MLA and minister Banna Gupta.
Geeta Koda—the wife of former chief minister Madhu Koda—who faced a crushing defeat in the Singhbhum parliamentary constituency this time is contesting from the Jagannathpur seat. Both Madhu and Geeta Koda have been MLAs from Jagannathpur twice. She will face Congress MLA Sonaram Sinku. In Kolhan and South Chotanagpur region, at least in five seats, the strength of the BJP's alliance with the AJSU Party and the JD(U) has to be weighed.
Election Issues
Key issues like the protection of tribal interests, the Uniform Civil Code (UCC), the Sarna religion Code, increasing reservation for Other Backward Classes (OBC) employment, jobs for the youth, and sending money to women's accounts every month are at the centre of the manifestos in Jharkhand's elections.
The BJP has termed its manifesto the ‘Sankalp Patra’, and the INDIA bloc in its manifesto termed 'Ek Vote Saat Guarantees' (one vote, seven guarantees) has assured seven guarantees, i.e., in education, domicile policy, social justice, food, ‘Maiyyan Samman Yojna’, jobs, and farmers' welfare.
Releasing the manifesto, Hemant Soren said, “We are committed to bringing domicile policy based on 1932 as the cut-off year for land records, implementation of Sarna religion Code, and reservations for the OBC, SC, and ST communities at 27 percent, 12 percent, and 28 percent respectively. Our government has already sent all these proposals to the Center after getting them passed by the Assembly, but the Centre is sitting over these issues. We will pass it again and send it to them.”
A Long-pending demand for a separate Sarna code in the census has been at the heart of tribal stirs. The JMM and the Congress had tried to corner the BJP on this issue during the Lok Sabha polls as well.
Wiped out in Jharkhand's tribal seats in June this year, the BJP has raked up ‘demographic change’ in Santhal Pargna due to "Bangladeshi" infiltrators. Alongside, the BJP has promised to uphold the Jharkhandi asmita (identity) by saving the state's 'Roti Mati and Beti'.
On 3 November, while releasing the BJP's ‘Sankalp Patra’, Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced that once in power, the party would bring in the UCC in the state but tribal communities would be kept out.
Ravindra Kumar Rai, the working president of BJP in Jharkhand, told The Quint, “Now, JMM-Congress are playing a losing game. This time, the BJP will perform well in tribal areas along with general seats.”
JMM spokesperson Dr Tanuj Khatri hit back, "Elections cannot be won by spreading lies and hatred. BJP is under a misconception. The seven guarantees of the INDIA bloc have exposed the BJP's manifesto. JMM cadres and supporters are intact. Hemant Soren and Kalpana Soren have exhausted Modi's entire army even before the first phase of voting."
(The author is a senior journalist based in Jharkhand. Views are personal.)
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