Data: Has Jharkhand Become a Mountain Too Tall to Climb for the BJP?

Given the momentous scale of the Mahayuti landslide in Maharashtra, it is natural for pundits and commentators to pay less attention to Jharkhand.

For supporters of the INDIA bloc, the spectacular victory of the JMM-led alliance in the state is testimony that the BJP can be defeated.

For pundits, the JMM-led alliance's victory reinforces two trends. First, the real opposition to the BJP comes largely from regional parties and second, Jharkhand has delivered a pro-incumbency verdict for the first time in its electoral history.

The BJP is shrugging off the huge loss as a blip and promises a fresh assault the next time. But amidst the avalanche of data, what is being missed is a deeply worrying trend for the BJP in Jharkhand.

Has the BJP reached a cul de sac in the state? Has its electoral arithmetic become a mountain too tall to climb for the saffron party?

The chart below shows the vote share of the BJP in the last few Jharkhand assembly elections along with its on-and-off alliance partner, the AJSU. Together, the two have managed to win about 37 percent of the vote since 2014.

The second chart shows the vote shares of the two main INDIA bloc partners, the JMM and the Congress, in Jharkhand since 2009. Together, the two have managed to win about 33 percent of the vote share. The 2024 election looks like an outlier with the duo winning a combined vote share of more than 38 percent.

Compared to the 37 percent won by the BJP-AJSU, the JMM-led alliance did have an edge in this assembly election. But that edge becomes a decisive and unassailable lead when you add up the vote shares of the smaller INDIA bloc partners in Jharkhand.

More worrying for the BJP, it will find it very difficult to bridge the gap in the future.

The other alliance partners of the JMM are the RJD, the CPI (ML) and the other communist parties, and it is they who are building a wall for the BJP that might become insurmountable. On their own, they are of little significance. But together, they have strengthened the JMM-Congress lead over the BJP-AJSU.

The RJD has cobbled up a vote share of 3.4 percent, winning four of the six seats it contested. The CPI(ML) managed a vote share of 1.9 percent, winning two of the four seats it contested. Some other smaller outfits added another one percent plus to the JMM-led alliance kitty. In effect, the INDIA bloc secured a vote share of a shade more than 44 percent, i.e., six percentage points more than the BJP-led alliance.

That is the reason why it trounced the saffron party so comfortably. The BJP too had alliance partners like the JD(U) and the LJP. But they managed a combined vote share of 1.5 percent, which was not enough to cut the vote share gap between the two rival alliances.

This happened in 2019 and has been repeated in 2024. It has now become a secular trend whereby the JMM-led alliance will secure a 42 percent odd vote share even if it underperforms while the BJP-led alliance will struggle to reach 40 percent. This could worsen as the AJSU has been steadily losing electoral ground and now looks like a spent force. The BJP seems stuck at a one-third vote share even when it does well.

For this situation to change, one of two things needs to happen in the future.

The JMM and Congress' vote share could collapse because of anti-incumbency. That looks doubtful in this era of pro-incumbency. The other is for the BJP to find new allies that have some electoral clout in the state. There are very slim chances of that happening as the smaller yet entrenched players like the RJD and the CPI(ML) will never join hands with the BJP.

The only option left for the BJP is to ensure there is a massive jump in its own vote share. Can the BJP do it?

Since 2014, the BJP has achieved many electoral feats that appeared extremely difficult, if not impossible, like breaching the 40 percent vote share in Uttar Pradesh.

Yet, Jharkhand could prove to be a tougher nut to crack.

(Yashwant Deshmukh and Sutanu Guru work with the CVoter Foundation. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the authors' own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)