Now that polling for the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir is over, the National Conference (NC) is sure to get the largest chunk of seats and could have a near majority along with its alliance partner, the Congress party.
The alliance would certainly have won a majority if the Congress had pulled its weight, but inexplicably, the country’s main opposition party did not. As the NC President Farooq Abdullah sadly observed to me. "…they did not take Jammu seriously." The result: the alliance may win around 30 of the 47 Valley seats, but be limited to a dozen or so of the 43 in the Jammu region—possibly 15.
The alliance could have won well above the 48-member majority, including nominated members, if the Congress had really pulled its weight—for there was a strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP around Jammu
The NC’s robust hard work (most noticeable in Kupwara last week) was a contrast to the Congress’s lacklustre campaign. If this leaves the alliance a few seats short, the alliance might need to rope in either the PDP or Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference.
In the final analysis, the Congress’s non-performance damaged the NC more than the Jamaat-e-Islami or `Engineer’ Rashid’s Awami Ittihad Party (AIP)—both of which many Kashmiris suspect were in the fray on behalf of the BJP, expressly to prevent a secular victory.
The J-e-I is not likely to win more than one seat, if that. The only constituency where it has a chance is Kulgam but, all things being equal, veteran CPM MLA Yusuf Tarigami could scrape past it there.
AIP too is only really in the running in half-a-dozen constituencies in north Kashmir—but cannot take even a single one for granted. In fact, suspicions about how and why Rashid got parole for the campaign have gradually seeped deep into the interiors of the Valley, even in his own Langate constituency. Those suspicions will cost his candidates. His brother might be the only AIP winner from his long-time constituency, if that.
Even Proxies ended Up Boosting NC
The irony is that, in most places where either J-e-I or AIP were strongly in the contest, they actually ended up helping the NC. For, J-e-I took chunks of votes that would otherwise have gone to the PDP (the J-e-I has strongly supported the PDP, albeit covertly, since 2002). And AIP most often cut into the vote share of Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference.
Ironically, the only constituency in which presumed proxies might perhaps cause an NC loss is Ganderbal, from where former chief minister Omar Abdullah chose to contest. It was his grandfather, Sheikh Abdullah’s constituency, which Omar lost the first time he contested for the J&K assembly, in 2002.
Of course, Omar has taken the precaution this time of also contesting the Budgam seat—which he is sure to win.
If indeed these outfits were (as many Kashmiris suspect) fielded to prevent the secular coalition from winning, Gurez might prove that taking on the NC directly could potentially yield more favourable results. Faqeer Mohammed Khan, the seasoned politician who is now the BJP candidate from Gurez, has put up a good fight—and the party in power is pulling out all stops to help him win.
The Mystery of the Congress
The Congress not only twiddled its thumbs in Jammu, it did precious little to support its candidates in the Valley—except the big three Congress leaders.
It did not insist on a so-called `friendly fight’ in Uri, where it should have fielded the redoubtable former minister, Taj Mohiuddin. Standing as an independent now, with the support of the Apni Party, he has put up a strong fight against the NC candidate, the son of former minister Shafi Uri.
Instead, the Congress opted for a `friendly fight’ in Sopore, where it ought to have supported the NC candidate, the son of long-time Congress leader Ghulam Rasool Kar. It fielded Mir Iqbal from Baramulla after having initially ceded the seat to the NC despite Iqbal’s good reputation. If the alliance loses any of the three seats, it will be because of these follies.
If the Congress failed to keep a seat for its heavyweight in Uri, the NC too blundered. At least four strong NC men fought as independents, all four after their constituencies (Tral and Shalteng) were ceded to the Congress. All four (including Thanamandi) have put up a good fight. If they win, they might return to the NC if they are offered enough mollification. That might make the crucial difference between a near-majority and a majority.
The one Congress candidate who has proved his worth is the relatively young advocate, Irfan Hafeez Lone, who has given Basharat Bukhari of the PDP a run for his money for the Wagoora-Kreeri seat. Bukhari was the presumed frontrunner when the campaign began. But many voters have backed Lone who, as a member of the Baramulla District Development Board over the past three years, worked hard for common people, responding to and helping even late-night callers.
PDP and PC Could Hold the Key to Power
One considered Basharat the strongest PDP candidate in the Valley after the party announced its nominees—shifting Abdul Rehman Veeri from Bijbehara and Waheed Para from Rajpora. But the PDP, once considered on par with the NC with a strong presence across the Valley, has clearly lost ground. It was only strongly in the contest for about half the seats in the Valley, and the Poonch and Rajouri districts.
Its seat tally may remain below ten, but even half a dozen seats could be crucial for government formation after the Congress’s poor show. The PDP and/or the PC could opt to join a coalition with the NC-Congress alliance. That should suffice for a majority—but one wonders if such sharply opposed parties will be willing or able to work together.
(The writer is the author of ‘The Story of Kashmir’ and ‘The Generation of Rage in Kashmir’. He can be reached at @david_devadas. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)