The ongoing elections for a new assembly for Jammu and Kashmir are an object lesson in the processes, logic, and value of democracy. It demonstrates that the people at large can upset the best-laid plans.
Ever since it initiated constitutional reforms regarding Jammu and Kashmir on 5 August 2019, the BJP regime has tried in every way to ensure that it can form a government in the Union Territory, preferably with a Hindu chief minister. That would have been the crowing glory (sic) of the constitutional changes.
However, with polling complete for the first assembly of the union territory, it is very unlikely that it will be able to form a government, short of rigging the results. And that is going to be tough after reaching out fervently to world powers—and their frontmen—after reverses in the Lok Sabha elections four months ago.
Four-and-a-half Failures and Anti-incumbency
Various stratagems haven’t worked. First, the government locked up the entire political class for many months—even those who were with the BJP. Then it reversed that, taking the main detainees to New Delhi for a photo-op with the prime minister. (Some observers speculate that this inexplicable about-turn was under the pressure of world powers.)
Two, the regime did its best to gerrymander constituencies to try and give itself and its putative allies advantages in every corner of the Union Territory. It hasn’t helped. The National Conference is doing well despite the gerrymandered disadvantages it has faced.
The delimitation commission even provided five nominated members with full voting rights, to be appointed by the Lieutenant-Governor. So, the BJP could form a government (or get into a coalition) even if it were five short of a majority—48. But, short of rigging, it won’t even have 40 backers in the new house.
Three, the government defied norms to grant scheduled tribe status to those who call themselves Pahadis in the Union Territory, presuming that the beneficiaries would vote for the BJP in gratitude, even though most Pahadis are Muslims. That hasn’t happened.
The BJP has a voluble pandit as its state president, has kept Dr Jitender Singh from the Jammu region in the prime minister’s office, gave extraordinary power to another Pandit, and to a leading light of the village defence committees which were armed to defend Hindus and others against terrorists, mainly in the upper Chenab basin, around a quarter-century ago.
The party nevertheless faced immense anti-incumbency anger in the Jammu region—some of it directed at these very men. So, it is unlikely to win as many seats there as it would have liked. Even its voluble state president could lose.
The party is paying for having tolerated ineptitude and corruption in Jammu, and inducting figures with poor reputations and criminal records, even of militancy, in Kashmir.
Allies Adrift
When elections were called, BJP office-bearers in the state claimed that the party expected to win enough seats to be able to form a majority along with its allies—Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference, Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party, and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s party.
However, already by the time the Lok Sabha elections were held, these plans were coming unstuck. Bukhari was shocked enough by the trends to publicly express second thoughts. Evidently having understood ground realities, Azad stayed away from those elections altogether. And Sajad, the only one of the three to contest, lost.
By the time `Engineer’ Rashid, who defeated Sajad (and former chief minister Omar Abdullah) from jail, was released on parole in order to campaign for the assembly polls, Sajad had had enough. He raised slogans like,"Jo Modi ka yaar hai, gadaar hai, gadaar hai"—making it politically suicidal for him to now join a coalition with the BJP.
However, the other two are still on board. Azad put up several candidates in the Chenab basin, a couple of whom have a chance of winning. And Bukhari hopes to win up to four seats, including his own.
Veteran politician Ghulam Hassan Mir is his candidate in Gulmarg. In Rafiabad, he has put up a relative who has a strong base there. In his native Uri, he backed former minister Taj Mohiuddin after the Congress did not give the latter a ticket. All four face tough fights against the NC but have the goodwill of the state machinery.
Even Nominated Members Not Enough
Overall, then, these allies might win between five and ten seats—a dozen with a little help from friends—but, Sajad may not be on board. The BJP itself had hoped for 26 seats from the Jammu region and five or so from the Valley. It may be restricted to 20 to 23 in the Jammu region, and at most one (Gurez) from the Valley. Together with allies and the five nominated voting members, it might still be short of a majority.
With world powers breathing down their neck, the government may not manipulate the process beyond a point. So, the NC-Congress alliance is likely to be able to make up the required numbers with the help of PDP or PC members.
(The writer is the author of ‘The Story of Kashmir’ and ‘The Generation of Rage in Kashmir’. He can be reached at @david_devadas. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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