[This is Part III of a three-part curtain-raiser on the J&K assembly elections scheduled between 18 September and 1 October. Read Part I here and Part II here.]
Most observers in the union territory expect that the National Conference will win the largest number of seats in the Jammu and Kashmir assembly, for which elections are to be held in September. It is certainly the only party that can hope for a majority on its own.
The big question mark hangs over which party or parties the NC may ally with, in case it doesn’t win a majority of the 90 seats, even along with its partner, the Congress—and if the BJP too has insufficient numbers even with its predictable backers.
The ruling establishment is certainly putting its best foot forward in the Jammu region (see Part II), with door-to-door interactions by the recently elected MPs in village after village—and fast responses to public demands for public works. On the other hand, the Congress party isn’t substantially building on the disillusionment with the BJP that has been visible on the ground.
So, it’s tough to say yet whether the NC and the Congress party’s seat-sharing will win them a majority. At least along with the People's Democratic Party (PDP), they should—but the PDP might well refuse to join hands, arguing that it should have been included in seat-sharing talks, and that workers who have just fought bitter battles refuse now to ally.
There is a real possibility that small groups will then hold the keys to power—possibly lots of little keys. Particularly if several erstwhile separatists contest and are able to win a few seats, they could ensure that the 'secular' parties remain short of a majority—for, most of them have a fundamentalist base, and would be loathe to ally with the NC.
Back-up Arrangements?
Other factors could be in play too. Given the suspicions that have dogged the performance of the Election Commission during the Lok Sabha elections, some observers wonder whether, in case all the BJP’s hard work does not turn public opinion around, the elections may nevertheless play out in such a way that the ruling party emerges with the largest, or second-biggest, chunk of seats in the new house.
Over the past couple of months, analyses have shown that there was a substantial difference between the number of votes initially said (by the Election Commission) to have been polled and the number finally counted in almost 80 Lok Sabha constituencies. This has boosted suspicions that not all was well with the election process.
There have been differences in past elections too, but generally only minor variations, not the major differences noted this time.
Thankfully, while announcing these assembly polls, the Chief Election Commissioner repeatedly announced that they would be free and fair.
Deal-making Possible
In case the NC does get the largest chunk of seats, but not a majority—even with the Congress—it’s possible that the BJP might then hold out a deal: that the Centre will ensure that statehood is restored to Jammu and Kashmir if, and only if, the BJP joins the NC on the ruling benches.
Indeed, NC President Farooq Abdullah told me (video interview out on The Quint soon) that restoration of statehood was his party’s chief priority.
While appointing Ram Madhav to head the party’s electoral efforts in the union territory, decision-makers may have figured that he could negotiate deals without those negotiations with 'secularists' becoming a political threat to the governmental top brass.
Madhav played the role, with Haseeb Drabu of PDP, in late 2014 too—when the broad contours of an agreement are already said to have been in place on a much higher plane since even before that year’s assembly elections.
The promise of statehood could be used to convince the NC cadre of the advantages of accepting—particularly if jobs, contracts, and other advantages of power are also held out as attractions to those NC men. The fact that the NC had an alliance with the Vajpayee-led BJP around the turn of the century could be held out as a precedent.
This is all, of course, very unlikely. And yet, most politically astute observers in the Union Territory believe that there is a possibility of the unlikely-sounding tie-up. The upshot of that would be to ensure that the new house does not pass a resolution rejecting the constitutional changes whole hog.
As for the restoration of statehood, the Centre had assured it even while the constitutional changes were being discussed in Parliament five years ago. Prime Minister Modi again assured it during a recent visit to the union territory.
On the other hand, the Centre is adamant that Articles 370 and 35-A should not be made operational again. Even the Supreme Court made it clear last year that Article 370 had become inoperative for good.
Conversations with NC leaders indicate that statehood is foremost on their agenda. That could turn out to be a fortuitous meeting point. But, of course, the chief objective of both parties is to try and manage a majority without having to reach out to the other.
(The writer is the author of ‘The Story of Kashmir’ and ‘The Generation of Rage in Kashmir’. He can be reached at @david_devadas. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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