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In the wake of leaders of several parties that constitute the INDIA bloc extending solidarity to YS Jagan Mohan Reddy during his Delhi protests, speculation is rife over the possibility of YSRCP (Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party) joining the national Opposition. Jagan held the rally to highlight what he alleged as atrocities upon his party by Telugu Desam Party (TDP) activists after the elections.
However, the INDIA bloc has not taken a united stand to support the former Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh and leader of YSR Congress in his political battle with his arch-rival N Chandrababu Naidu. This was evident from the fact that the Congress party, the largest partner in the Opposition, was conspicuous in its absence.
As per media reports, the parties that were represented at the Delhi protest include Samajwadi Party (SP), the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray, the Trinamool Congress, The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), and the Muslim League. These parties have no stakes in the political contestation in Andhra Pradesh. Of course, the common factor among these attendees is their opposition to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) which rules the state of Andhra Pradesh.
However, the presence of an AIADMK leader at the protest sent confusing signals as he drew a similarity between the alleged excesses on political opponents in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Surprisingly, the AIADMK leader was making these accusations against a prominent member of the INDIA bloc, the DMK, led by Stalin.
Thus, the response from those at Jagan’s protest in the national capital was personal and political. But, it was not certainly a coordinated response with a grand political strategy behind it.
There seems to be an attempt to lure Jagan to their side, though such a possibility is still premature. Neither Jagan nor the INDIA bloc is in an urgent mood to arrive at a political understanding. Possible estrangement of N Chandrababu Naidu from the BJP, in the near future cannot be ruled out.
There are several reasons for this fluid state of politics. Normally, the INDIA bloc would be the natural choice of the YSR Congress given the fact that his principal opponent, N Chandrababu Naidu, leads NDA in the state, that too at a time when parties like Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Bharata Rastra Samithi (BRS), AIADMK, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) are getting squeezed as the nation witnesses an increasingly polarised electoral battle.
Firstly, Jagan has already extended his party‘s so-called issue-based support to the BJP-led NDA government at the centre. He was a non-NDA ally for the years when he was ruling the state. The YSR Congress parliamentary party leader, Vijayasai Redy, has been on record that his party also has 15 members in Parliament including 11 Rajya Sabha members and their support to the Modi regime is not in any way inferior to that of TDP which has 16 members in Lok Sabha with none in Rajya Sabha.
The reasons for Jagan’s issue-based support—a euphemism for unconditional support—are palpable. He faces a number of cases which are at different stages of the judicial process. He is worried about possible action by central agencies like the ED and the CBI. The Modi government is notorious for letting these central agencies loose on political opponents. This is precisely why Jagan is supporting NDA, despite his archrival’s presence in it. The saffron brigade joined the TDP-led alliance and is directly responsible for crushing the YSR Congress. Jagan, still, is not hostile towards the NDA.
This paradoxical bonhomie is nothing political. It stems from personal compulsion given the string of cases against him and the courts calling for their speedy disposal. Given the experience of Opposition leaders like Aravind Kejriwal, Hemant Soren, and K. Kavitha, Jagan sees the writing on the wall.
Such a hostile situation is nothing new to Jagan. Immediately after the results, he himself indirectly hinted at the possibility of his arrest by stating that difficulties in life are not new for him. He was arrested on a host of corruption charges after he fell out with Congress high command subsequent to the tragic demise of his father and former Chief Minister of United Andhra Pradesh, YS Rajasekhara Reddy. The situation then and now are completely different.
Jagan’s arrest then was close on the heels of the untimely and tragic demise of his father. He was riding on a powerful sympathy wave as YSR was hugely popular with his innovative welfare schemes. The Congress was facing a strong anti-incumbency in its second term and a strong movement for a separate state of Telangana. The TDP was yet to regain the confidence of the people by then. Such was the politically favourable situation in which Jagan was arrested by the then Congress government in the united Andhra Pradesh.
On the contrary, the possible arrest now, if it happens, will come at a most disadvantageous time for Jagan. He has faced a humiliating defeat in the elections. The Modi-led NDA government is dependent on the TDP’s critical support, and they are going after Jagan.
The first time, his sister, YS Sharmila, took the mantle from Jagan after his arrest by embarking upon an arduous walkathon. His mother YS Vijayamma was firmly behind him. But, the YS Rajasekhara Reddy family is a divided house now. YS Sharmila as the state Congress chief is already waging a no-holds-bar fight against his brother as she feels let down by him politically and personally. In this intra-family fight, mother Vijayamma seems to be backing her daughter, though has not yet turned publicly hostile towards her son.
Thus, Jagan fears an exodus of leaders from the YSR Congress to the ruling combine if he is put behind bars and cannot derive any political mileage.
Jagan is most unlikely to take any belligerent position towards Modi-led NDA at the centre though he fights the same alliance in the state. But, if political events make his arrest inevitable, Jagan will be left with no choice except to embrace rival camps in a bid to garner support from other parties in the country. Thus, he has kept all doors open. This explains his invitation to select leaders from the INDIA camp.
Notwithstanding Sharmila’s opposition, who heads the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, the Congress and the INDIA bloc would be more than happy to accept the YSR Congress into its fold given the fact that the combine has no presence in the state.
Thus, the newfound relationship between the YSR Congress and a few partners of the INDIA bloc is an exercise in pragmatism from both sides keeping in mind the political events that may or may not unfold in the days to come.
(Prof K Nageshwar is a senior political analyst, faculty member of Osmania University, and a former MLC. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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