Will the ghost of the old Gujarati-Maharashtrian rivalry come back to haunt the BJP again? Do sinking ties between the BJP and Shiv Sena (ideological allies for a quarter of a century, barring a temporary separation in October 2014) have anything to do with Narendra Modi becoming prime minister and denting the Sena base in Maharashtra? Is the Sena trying to revive its old anti-Gujarati stance to use the fault lines to reap electoral dividends? There are signs.
The Shiv Sena’s recent actions – blocking a concert by Pakistani singer Ghulam Ali and smearing Sudheendra Kulkarni with black tar – deeply embarrassed the Centre and the Maharashtra government. But these appear to be part of a bigger political agenda.
Shiv Sena’s Theatrics: A Political Ploy
- Recent protests part of bigger Sena political ploy
- Sena feeling politically insecure in Maharashtra due to Modi
- Party mouthpiece ‘Saamna’ regularly hits out at things related to Gujarat
- Sena doesn’t shy away from recalling 2002 in a bid to embarrass the PM
- BJP has a tough choice of finding a new ally or calling it quits with Sena
Sena Sidelined by Modi
At a subterranean level, the Sena has been piqued with “Gujarati” Modi for acquiring a wider profile in Maharashtra. After all, it was the Modi-factor that enabled the BJP to bag a record 123 out of 288 seats in the state assembly elections held in October 2014, while the Sena came second with 63 seats. The Congress secured 42 seats, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 41, with Independents bagging seven and fringe parties accounting for the remaining 13 seats.
And Modi too did not help matters. By not inviting Uddhav Thackeray, the Shiv Sena chief, in time for a slew of functions he presided over in Mumbai on Sunday, he forced a miffed Sena to boycott the functions.
Underscoring the latent Gujarati-Marathi divide, Sena’s official mouth piece – “Saamna” in an editorial last year had inter alia lamented :
“Staying in Mumbai, they (Gujaratis) enjoyed wealth. They minted money…those who were penniless exploited Mumbai, Maharashtra and built their own Dwarka of gold and are calling the shots in the country’s power politics based on this wealth generated from Mumbai. They are chalking out plans on who is to be made the Prime Minister and who is to be deposed,” the editorial said. Saamna is edited by Uddhav.
Marathi vs Gujarati Pride
And in a recent editorial the paper critiqued Gujarat’s chief minister, Anandiben Patel, for visiting Maharashtra and exhorting industrialists in Mumbai to invest in her state.
“.....For what purpose did the CM of Gujarat Anandiben Patel visit Maharashtra? If she asks all the industrialists to set base in Gujarat, leaving Maharashtra behind, this too amounts to looting Maharashtra.”
In February last year, Maharastra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray slammed Modi for praising Sardar Patel in his speech in Maharashtra while ignoring Shivaji and Bal Thackeray. He advised Modi to adopt a “national outlook” instead of tom-toming the Gujarat model.
The Shiv Sena was also angry with the BJP for luring its senior leader Suresh Prabhu last year with a cabinet portfolio; Prabhu quit the Sena to join the Modi government as railway minister.
Hitting Below the Belt
On Wednesday, the Sena stunned the political class by personally targeting Modi, resurrecting the 2002 communal carnage to remind him of the sore point in his political career.
In a below the belt comment, senior Sena leader Sanjay Raut said: “The world knows Narendra Modi due to Godhra and Ahmedabad, and we respect him for the same reason. If the same Narendra Modi has called the controversy surrounding Ghulam Ali and (former Pakistan minister) Khurshid Kasuri unfortunate, then it is indeed unfortunate for all of us.”
Modi is unlikely to forget the blasphemous comment too soon. If the Sena goes unpunished for now it is only because of the complex political situation prevalent in the state and the BJP lacking a simple majority in the House.
Sena’s Strategy
The Sena camp appears to think that the so-called Modi wave was cutting into its Marathi vote bank, and that by reviving its strident “nationalistic” and parochial posturing it could reclaim its pre-eminent position as a party for the sons of the soil.
With the two hardline parties also competing for “Hindutva” space, only time will tell whether the gambit will pay or boomerang. The Sena has the option of pulling out of Devendra Fadnavis government and try to strengthen the party at an opportune moment.
Indications are that it may first test the waters in next month’s Kalyan-Dombivali municipal corporation election by going it alone, followed by the Mumbai municipal corporation polls in early 2017.
Uddhav may also explore the possibilities of a merger or alliance with his estranged cousin and MNS chief, Raj, to counter the BJP. Bonhomie between the two can be seen since January this year when Raj dropped by at a photo exhibition organised by Uddhav.
Options for BJP
As for the BJP, it appears to have only two options: one, either strike a deal with the NCP, the seven independents or the 13 MLAs belonging to fringe parties in order to cobble up the requisite majority of 145 and split with the Sena; or two, do nothing at all. Neither option is easy. Sharad Pawar, the NCP chief, is wily and an unpredictable ally and of the 13 MLAs, two belong to the Left, while two are from the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, parties unlikely to support the BJP.
The NCP, which has declared outside support to the BJP-led government last year, now appears to be fishing in troubled waters. Pawar on Wednesday said his party “will no longer support” the Maharashtra government.
The only saving grace is that no party is prepared to face an election now. But what is worrying is that Maharashtra, one of the largest and richest states in the country, is cooking a political potpourri that could derail governance and trigger social unrest in the coming days.
(The writer is a political commentator)
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