A select few Indians and Pakistanis met in June at Kathmandu, Nepal, in the longest-running and uninterrupted Track II annual dialogue between the two countries.
Sometimes, the meeting is held bi-annually and occasionally in changed formats – from the conventional, to the new ‘seed communities’, and sometimes, a mix of these formats.
Still, the outcomes are nearly always identical: that India-Pakistan relations are going nowhere but getting progressively worse.
Wasted Opportunities
This once-rowdy dialogue that has now transformed into civilized conversation, started in 2003 after the attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001, and has even survived the 26/11 Mumbai attacks. When it was making no headway – as talks and terror cannot go together (Indian position) while hard security issues like Siachen and Kashmir must be on the table (Pakistani position) – it was wisely decided to put conditions on the back burner and address the real, instead of the imaginary low-hanging fruit.
Instead, the economic, security, cultural and civil society’s ‘seed communities’ attempted to transform India-Pakistan relations in the long run by changing the narrative: telling more humane stories by shifting the focus from hard geopolitics and security issues, to designing soft catalytic projects as confidence-building measures.
This ‘seed community’ consists of parliamentarians, former ministers ,diplomats, journalists, academics, businessmen, artists and of course, military officials. A catalytic project has to be technically feasible, commercially viable and politically doable when the window opens.
As long as India and Pakistan view each other as security threats, little can change. On the other hand, CBMs that benefit civil society and ordinary people can alter perceptions about each other. These are not necessarily path-breaking but mutually beneficial projects – baby steps in creating an environment conducive to enhancing trust and confidence. Some one dozen ‘ready to go’ catalytic projects have been prepared over the last three years. It is against this backdrop that the Kathmandu dialogue was held in June to consider the regional and bilateral geo-politics as well as further fine-tune the CBMs.
Track II conversations are fruitful especially when avenues for Track I are blocked, as they are now. The promising innovation to the resumed dialogue was the ‘Foreign Secretary and National Security Advisor Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue’, which never took off except that the two NSAs met in Bangkok over cigarettes and single malts.
What a waste of prime time between a Pakistani General and an Indian policeman. The BJP government will be completing its term in office shortly and would have successfully failed in starting any conversation with Pakistan – the first-ever government to bag this dubious distinction in the guise of following a ‘muscular’ policy.
Incidentally, the official dialogue was terminated in January 2013 after the public angst following the beheading of an Indian soldier along the LoC.
China Continues to Haunt India-Pakistan Ties
In Kathmandu, what did we learn about India and Pakistan’s changing ties? Both sides were pleased with the resumption of a ceasefire along the LoC. At the same time, it was also accepted that the ceasefire would be difficult to sustain due to potential cross-border infiltrations.
Even during the halcyon days of Musharraf, though infiltrations had reduced by 53 percent, no ceasefire was sacrosanct.
Suspension of cross-border shelling was a welcome relief for civilians for whom bunkers were being built astride LoC on both sides. A ceasefire is required to be regularised by a written MoU so that it is not subject to breaches, at the whims and fancies of local army commanders.
The most outstanding recent event was the invitation by the Pakistan Army to Indian journalists to 7 Infantry Division headquarters at Meeranshah in North Waziristan. But it is indeed a mystery as to why they were provided access to the innards of Pakistan’s counter-terrorism citadel. Probably to tell India that Pakistan is also the victim of terrorism?
Pakistanis highlighted the growing irrelevance of US-Pakistan relations and the corresponding strengthening of ties with China – now more precious than eyes, sweeter than honey and stronger than steel. Some doubts were expressed on China’s motives and the financing of CPEC, that too among Army circles. Pakistan’s Foreign Exchange reserves have plummeted from UD 16 bn to 10 bn with some saying it could be in the negative. Pakistan could be approaching the IMF for the fourth time since 2001, unless China bails it out. The Chinese are insisting that their loans be spent on buying their goods.
India-Pakistan Relationship Unlikely to Improve
Elections in Pakistan will take place under a caretaker regime on 25 July and no postponement is expected. This will be a record third time when an elected government has completed its full term without direct Army intervention. It seems both the judiciary and the ISI are hyper active in preventing the morally shattered Nawaz Sharif and family from forming a PMLN-led government.
The Army is working on a coalition to banish Nawaz Sharif from politics as its current favourite prime ministerial candidate is cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan of Pakistan Tehreek a Insaf (PTI). A weak government suits the Army as it can call the shots while the government carries the can for any aberrations.
No matter who wins elections in Pakistan, little will change in its disposition towards India.
New Delhi will likely maintain its muscular policy towards Islamabad. An Indian politician attending the conference recalled what Nawaz Sharif had told him in his second stint as prime minister: “You Indians are lucky that Nehru ensured the Army remained under civilian control”.
For us intrepid Track II votaries, nothing is likely to change until mid 2019 when Modi (possibly) becomes prime minister for a second term. Except that SAARC, postponed twice already, may be held at the end of 2019. That is the silver lining in the cloud observed at the Kathmandu dialogue.
(Major General (retd) Ashok K Mehta is a founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, the forerunner of the current Integrated Defence Staff. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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