India Should Be Wary of China When It Comes to Border Agreements

The recent border agreement signed between India and China on 22 October is a positive development, aimed at maintaining peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the eastern Ladakh sector. A significant decision within this agreement addresses the disengagement of troops from the Depsang and Demchok sectors in northeastern Ladakh. The disengagement process is expected to be completed by the end of this month. Both countries have also agreed to reinstate patrolling rights that existed prior to 2020.

However, India must proceed with caution. Past incidents have shown that China has repeatedly violated agreements by intruding into Indian territory along the LAC. For instance, India and China signed the 1993 “Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas” to preserve the status quo following the Sumdorong Chu standoff near Tawang district in Arunachal Pradesh.

Nevertheless, skirmishes have continued, including a major standoff in 2022. Unlike previous encounters, India was better prepared, leading the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to withdraw from areas near Tawang.

In 2017, China attempted to build a road in Doklam, a region disputed between China and Bhutan. Indian forces intervened to halt construction, as the road would have given China a strategic advantage near India’s vulnerable Siliguri corridor, also known as the "Chicken’s Neck." In 2020, the PLA allegedly intruded into 685 square kilometres of Indian territory in Ladakh, marking a pivotal moment in India’s defence strategy.

Despite being initially unprepared, Indian forces successfully blocked Chinese attempts to enter the Galwan Valley, leading to the tragic loss of 20 Indian soldiers. Although China claimed only four casualties, it is widely believed the PLA suffered over 65 losses. Since then, India has bolstered its military presence and improved infrastructure along the border, showcasing its resolve to counter future PLA incursions. Notably, in 2022, Indian forces again successfully repelled a Chinese incursion in Arunachal Pradesh.

While China has withdrawn from the Galwan sector, Indian forces face ongoing challenges in securing the withdrawal of Chinese troops from critical regions like Depsang and Demchok, where Chinese forces continue to obstruct Indian patrols. In Arunachal Pradesh, Indian forces have applied lessons from previous encounters to prevent further advances by China. Meanwhile, China’s state-run Global Times accused India of provoking the 2020 conflict, despite satellite evidence indicating China’s initial incursion.

China’s aggressive stance has motivated India to participate in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), an initiative for a secure and free Indo-Pacific region. Although China possesses one of the world’s most powerful militaries, it must recognise India’s growing military modernisation, preparing for potential future conflicts along the LAC. India has recently acquired 26 Rafale jets and three Scorpene submarines from France, alongside a $3 billion deal with the US for 22 Apache and Chinook helicopters. India has also collaborated with Israel to strengthen its naval missile defence systems. Unlike 1962, any future conflict is unlikely to be one-sided.

Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi has stressed the need to restore trust between the Indian Army and the PLA, advocating a return to the status quo of April 2020, before recent escalations. He emphasised the importance of disengagement and de-escalation along the LAC.

China has frequently employed “salami slicing,” a tactic of gradual territorial encroachment along the LAC. This was evident during the 2013 Depsang incursions, which sparked prolonged military and diplomatic discussions that remain unresolved. To date, over nineteen rounds of talks have been held without significant progress, as China resists withdrawing its troops or allowing Indian patrols in the Depsang Plains and Demchok regions.

Reports also indicate that China has built 23 villages on Bhutanese territory and has faced criticism from the Philippines for disregarding the Permanent Arbitration Council’s ruling on Scarborough Shoal. China’s intentions toward Taiwan are also well known.

While India has avoided fully aligning with the United States as a counterbalance to China, further provocations may prompt closer ties. Peaceful relations between India and China are essential for regional stability, and both countries should pursue a peaceful resolution of border disputes through mutual compromise.

China should recognise that in modern warfare, absolute victory is rarely achievable. The ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict has shown that even superpowers can struggle to make lasting advances.

In this context, the recent meeting between the Indian Prime Minister and the Chinese President during the BRICS summit holds promise. Both leaders agreed that India’s National Security Adviser and China’s Foreign Minister should meet to resolve border issues. This is a positive step toward peace and prosperity in the region. Notably, India’s military leadership, diplomats, and government demonstrated resilience and patience under Chinese pressure.

As an old Russian saying goes, “Trust but verify.” India should remain vigilant toward China’s intentions and enhance its intelligence capabilities to respond effectively to future incursions in Galwan, Depsang, and Demchok.

(KS Venkatachalam writes on socio-economic and human rights issues. Views are personal.)