In the Fight Between BJP and Hardik Patel, Congress Sneaks a Win

For the Congress, winning 24 of the 31 district panchayats is a first in two decades.

The year was 1995. The BJP dethroned the Congress in the Gujarat panchayat elections for the first time. Rural Gujarat rallied behind the LK Advani-Keshubhai Patel-Narendra Modi-led BJP with hopes that it will provide drinking water and electricity. BJP won 18 out of the 19 district panchayats and 154 of the 183 taluka panchayats.

Since then, the BJP’s rise in Gujarat has been meteoric. It has ruled the state since 1998, giving it three chief ministers, most notably Narendra Modi.

But now, a new recipe is being brewed in the state, which many people often label BJP’s Hindutava laboratory. On Wednesday, the Congress won 24 of the 31 district panchayats and over 60 percent of the taluka panchayats in the 2015 Gujarat local body polls for the first time in two decades.

The Congress had poor state leadership, almost invisible candidates, a lacklustre poll campaign and anti-incumbency. The BJP brought with it an army of foot soldiers, a glitzy campaign, the development card, ‘friendly’ independent candidates and Gujarat Chief Minister Anandiben Patel holding a Modi mask. In the backdrop was 22-year-old Hardik Patel, watching the polls from behind bars.

So will fortune finally favour the Congress after all this time? It’s still too early to make definitve predictions. But going by just Wednesday’s results and extrapolating Congress’ district panchayat win to the 2017 Gujarat Assembly elections, the Congress can take home 97 seats out of 182, against the 57 it currently holds.

• It was an acid test for the BJP, especially CM Anandiben Patel
  It was also a fight for supremacy for Gujarat’s Patel community
  
• The BJP swept the civic polls in urban areas, but lost miserably in areas represented by bigwigs including Modi, Anandiben and cabinet ministers.
  
• The Patel row has helped BJP as the OBCs and the ST/SCs have backed the party for their stand against Hardik and his supporters.
  
• Congress’ mandate means they now need a face that can fight the might of Modi, Shah and Anandiben in the coming days.
  

Where Did the BJP Fail?

In the beginning, this wasn’t meant to be a Congress show. It was an acid test for the BJP, especially Anandiben, and it was a fight for supremacy for Gujarat’s Patel community. It became BJP vs Patels (around 14 percent of Gujarat’s population), the day Hardik had millions of Patels uniting for reservation.

The Congress has had no clear stand for the last two decades – be it the 2001 earthquake, the 2002 Gujarat riots or the 2015 reservation row. This time as well, it is more a loss for the BJP than a victory for the Congress.

While the BJP swept civic polls in urban areas, it lost miserably in areas represented by its bigwigs including, Modi, Anandiben and cabinet ministers Nitin Patel, Saurabh Patel, Vasuben Trivedi and Ramanlal Vora. It lost in the areas it had once snatched from the Congress – central Gujarat and Saurashtra.

The BJP was riding on huge anti-incumbency wave and the rehabilitation work post floods in Amreli this year earned the state government a bad name in Saurashtra. The consolidation of Patel votes in the region, too, cost the party dearly. Most Patels with Hardik were from Saurashtra and north Gujarat. The government’s inaction against police officials involved in a lathicharge against the youth made the community angry.

In addition, Saurashtra – which includes, Amreli, Rajkot, Bhavnagar, Morbi, Surendranagar, Junagadh and Jamnagar – has not been the beneficiary of Modi’s development policies. The region witnesses the most number of farmer suicides in Gujarat and has a high unemployment rate.

But for the Congress, it may still be mission impossible in Gujarat.

BJP Bags Non-Patel Votes With Anti-Hardik Stand

The BJP has retained all six major corporations and swept more than 80 percent of nagar-palikas. It is still the party of choice in the state and Narendra Modi is the most popular leader in Gujarat.

The Patel row has also helped the BJP as the OBCs and the ST/SCs have backed the party for its stand against Hardik and his supporters. The consolidation of non-Patel voters should make the BJP optimistic.

Yes, there are some shortcomings in the Gujarat development model, but Anandiben and Amit Shah are on the job.

But for the Congress, the civic poll result will give high command more to worry about, than to celebrate.

The party faces serious infighting and has multiple power centres in Gujarat. The mandate means they need a face that can fight the might of Modi, Shah and Anandiben in the coming days – Bharatsinh Solanki and Siddharth Patel hardly connect with today’s Gujarat. Even Congress party workers find them lacking.

But these election results will have one man worried. It was Modi who worked with Advani and Shah to make Gujarat a BJP base in 1995. A year after he took over the Centre in 2014, these results are a major setback for him. For Modi and BJP, losing Gujarat is irreparable, and for Congress, it’s a trophy they would like to flaunt before the 2019 general elections.

The domination of Patels in Gujarat’s politics will take a backseat as BJP has managed to win, despite an anti-Patidar wave. Congress has a blessing in disguise; it can crawl to the higher echelons in Gujarat, but for that it needs more than Ahmed Patel and other old hats.

(The writer is a Gujarat-based journalist.)