Sipping a cup of coffee offered by the police, DK Shivakumar waited outside the Renaissance Hotel in Mumbai in July this year, insisting he wouldn’t leave until he had met the rebel MLAs. However, his fellow Congress leaders in Karnataka were divided over DK Shivakumar’s actions.
One section believed DK Shivakumar was the only leader trying to save the JD(S)-Congress alliance, while the other section claimed he was only creating the perception of being a trouble-shooter for the party. And at the end of this political drama, even though the JD(S)-Congress alliance lost power, DK Shivakumar became the man of the hour.
After this episode it was clear that this former cabinet minister would play a crucial role for the Congress party ahead of the assembly elections, as senior leaders like Siddaramaiah and Mallikarjun Kharge were getting old. But then came his arrest by the Enforcement Directorate (ED).
When Shivakumar was taken into custody in a two year old case, on Tuesday, 3 September, senior Congress leaders claimed it was the BJP’s attempt to silence senior Congress leader. But more than affecting him, this episode may help DK Shivakumar further his political ambitions.
His arrest is expected to have three major effects on his political career.
His popularity in the party will increase and he could become a pan-Karnataka leader.
He will get the support of the Vokkaliga community and emerge as a tall leader of this large vote bank.
It will increase his bargaining power with the Congress’ central high command.
A Pan-State Image
Soon after DK Shivakumar was taken into custody, protests broke out in Karnataka. In some parts, buses were torched and traffic on the Mysore-Bengaluru highway was briefly blocked. On Tuesday night, these protests were limited to Bengaluru and its outskirts, where Shivakumar holds sway.
However, by Wednesday morning, protests were reported across the state. Apart from the southern districts, protests were reported in several parts of north and coastal Karnataka, where DK Shivakumar was not considered to be particularly popular.
“One of the reasons why DK Shivakumar asked to become the district in-charge minister for Ballari (in north Karnataka) was because he wanted to increase his sphere of influence beyond south Karnataka,” said a KPCC officer bearer.
They believe that the protests in these regions show that with his arrest, DK Shivakumar is gaining a pan-Karnataka image.
Becoming a Prominent Vokkaliga Leader
The Vokkaliga community, which roughly constitutes 11 per cent of Karnataka’s vote share, is crucial for all political parties in the state. The community traditionally voted for the JD(S) and the Congress. But, in the 2019 general elections, when the JD(S) and the Congress contested the election together, many from this community had voted in the BJP’s favour.
The new BJP government appointing a Vokkaliga deputy chief minister was also part of the plan to tap further into this vote bank.
The arrest of DK Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga, by central agencies, allegedly at the behest of the ruling BJP, is expected to turn Vokkaliga sentiment away from the BJP.
The recent suicide of Café Coffee Day owner VG Siddhartha, also a Vokkaliga, allegedly because of pressure by the I-T department, had turned the community’s opinion against the BJP.
Thus, this episode is expected to increase DK Shivakumar’s position as the next tall Congress leader from the community (after SM Krishna), riding on this Vokkaliga emotion.
Better Bargaining Power With Central High Command
When the Congress-JD(S) alliance was formed in 2018, DK Shivakumar was a contender for the post of the deputy chief minister. Later when then KPCC president G Parameshwara stepped down, Shivakumar had hoped to become the party chief in the state. However, his parleys with the central high command were not fruitful.
Over the years, DK Shivakumar had made it clear that he was targetted by the central agencies for supporting his party. He referred to the investigations by the I-T department and ED as sacrifices he was having to endure for following the party orders.
If and when DK Shivakumar comes out on bail, he will have significant leverage in the party. Since he attracted the wrath of the I-T department for helping Ahmed Patel, the right-hand man of the current AICC chief Sonia Gandhi, he is expected to use his episode in his favour in the coming days.
On Wednesday after visiting the hospital where DK Shivakumar was undergoing treatment a close of associate of his told The Quint: “How long will they keep him in jail? Few days? Few months? But eventually he will have to be given bail. So, when he comes out, the BJP would have made him a larger figure than he already is,” he said.
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