The shocking defeat of the Congress party in Haryana is likely to have an impact on seat distribution talks in Maharashtra. Knives are already out in the INDIA bloc, with the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) criticising the grand old party’s decision to contest elections without accommodating its allies.
Haryana's outcome could lead to the weakening of Congress' bargaining power within the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). Sena UBT could also revive its demands of naming Uddhav Thackeray as the alliance's CM face. On the other hand, the victory gives the BJP the elbow to negotiate hard with allies Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar within the Mahayuti.
Both the alliances are facing severe issues in finalising seat sharing with three parties part of each alliance [(BJP, Shiv Sena-Eknath Shinde, NCP-Ajit Pawar) (Congress, NCP-Sharad Pawar, Shiv Sena-UBT)]. The elections in Maharashtra are expected to be held in November after Diwali.
The political landscape in the state has changed quite a bit in the last five years with the two main regional parties splitting up, complicating matters for both.
In the first test for the MVA and the Mahayuti in the 2024 general elections, the MVA bagged the trophy, winning 30 seats, while the Mahayuti bagged 17 seats. Both alliances scored around 44 percent of the vote share each.
In terms of leads in assembly segments, the MVA led in 153 seats (Congress 63, SHS-UBT 57, NCP-SP 33), and the Mahayuti led in 126 seats (BJP 79, SHS-Shinde 40, NCP-AP six, and the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha one). The simple majority mark in the Assembly is 145 seats.
As per reports, the BJP could contest 140-150 seats, the SHS-ES 80 and the NCP-SP 55. The MVA is expected to share the seats equally (one-third each) as per some other reports. But no official confirmation is out yet.
Data from the past four elections shows that the BJP has contested anywhere between 111-164 seats when it has contested in alliance with the Shiv Sena (pre-split). On the other hand, the Congress has contested 147-170 seats, and the NCP (pre-split) 113-124 seats.
The BJP is the clear leader of Mahayuti and so it has a claim on the highest number of seats, with 105 MLAs in the current assembly. With 40-odd MLAs each of the SHS-ES and the NCP-AP, the BJP could look at retaining the 164 seats it contested in 2019, and distributing the remaining 124 amongst the SHS-ES, the NCP-AP, and smaller parties.
If this formula is accepted, then the SHS-ES and the NCP-AP may get to contest 60 seats each, which will be half of what they contested pre-split in 2019. The BJP could argue that the strength of these parties has halved and hence, the formula is justifiable.
The problem that both Ekanth Shinde (ES) and Ajit Pawar (AP) are facing is that they have already lost round one of the asli/nakli debate with Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar respectively in the general elections. If the SHS-ES/NCP-AP fight on a lesser number of seats than the SHS-UBT/NCP-SP, then it gives credence to the theory that they are not the original party and could demotivate the cadres and the second-rung leaders.
By virtue of the splits, the Congress party is now the number one party in the MVA, both in terms of the number of MLAs as well as leads in assembly segments in the 2024 general elections. It was fancying retaining the 150-odd seats it contested in 2019, and leaving 130-140 for the SHS-UBT and the NCP-SP.
However, in terms of strike rate, it recorded the lowest [30 percent] in 2019, winning just 44 of the 147 seats contested. On the other hand, the NCP and SHS (pre-split) recorded a strike rate of 44 percent and 45 percent and therefore, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray may not give Congress the courtesy of contesting in more seats.
In short, the number of seats contested in the past may not be a benchmark for seat sharing in this election. The Haryana results have also pushed back Congress' plans.
Region-wise strengths and weaknesses can be used as a barometer of seat distribution. As per the 2019 results and the historical trends of past elections, the BJP’s strong areas are Vidarbha followed by Western Maharashtra and its weakest area is the Thane-Konkan region.
Both the Shiv Sena factions are strong in Mumbai and the Thane-Konkan region, followed by Marathwada, while they are weak in the other three regions ie, Northern and Western Maharashtra, and Vidarbha. Both NCP factions are the strongest in Western Maharashtra and the weakest in Mumbai. They have a moderate presence in the other four regions.
The Congress is the strongest in Vidarbha, followed by Western Maharashtra, and the weakest in Thane-Konkan. Historically, it has done well in Mumbai as well.
From the Mahayuti side, the BJP and the SHS-ES could share a large chunk of seats in Mumbai, Thane-Konkan, and the Marathwada regions with the NCP-AP taking a backseat. The NCP-AP could get a lion’s share in Western Maharashtra, followed by the BJP, with the SHS-ES taking a backseat.
The BJP could get the majority of seats in Vidarbha, as it is primarily a BJP vs Congress direct contest zone. In Northern Maharashtra, the BJP could contest half the seats, leaving the other half equally for the SHS-ES and the NCP-AP.
From the MVA side, the SHS-UBT could take a large chunk of seats in Mumbai followed by the Congress with the NCP-SP taking a backseat. Thane-Konkan, on the other hand, is mainly a fight between two factions of the Shiv Sena.
Again, the Congress could get a lion’s share in Vidarbha as it is primarily a BJP vs Congress direct contest zone. In Northern Maharashtra, all three could share seats equally while in Marathwada, the seats could be shared on a 40:30:30 ratio between the three parties. In Western Maharashtra, the NCP-SP should get a large chunk followed by the Congress and the SHS-UBT, since it is mainly a fight between the NCP factions on most of the seats.
Both the alliances will need to be mindful of rebels spoiling their chances. We could see many rebels contesting as independents and thus playing the role of vote cutter in Haryana. The “Others” have historically had a 25 percent average vote share or 30 odd seats in Maharashtra in the last five elections.
Time is running out for both alliances. Ticket distribution is required to be done sooner as it would give candidates more time to settle disputes and campaign effectively in an election where the vote transfer between partners will be very crucial.
(Amitabh Tiwari is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba on X [formerly Twitter]. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
