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A lot has changed in Haryana in the last three decades, a state that goes to assembly polls next month, but what defines the entry of Olympian wrestler Vinesh Phogat as a Congress party candidate represents a social trend that is shaking Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party's hold over the state. Ms Phogat, after all, is defying the conventional rules of identity politics so typical of northern India in recent years.
To understand this you have to understand the ways of two of its dominant rural communities, the Jats and the Ahirs, who are in some ways rivals but also collaborators. Both are land-owning communities but are not phenomenally wealthy like the storied zamindars of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. They have used education, government jobs, and of late, entrepreneurship, to get ahead in life. They also happen to be politically conscious and know the power of their vote and voice.
Phogat Seems Strongly Poised
Gone are the days when Chaudhary "Jannayak" Devi Lal, who was India's deputy prime minister for more than a year after installing VP Singh and Chandra Shekhar as PMs circa 1990, was considered a largely undisputed Jat community leader. His descendants are now split between parties like the Indian National Lok Dal and the Jannayak Janata Party, and his son Ranjit Singh is a minister in the BJP government.
Haryana is known for its conservative "khaps" that are known for patriarchal diktats and female infanticide that used to make its men look for brides from other states. The female-to-male ratio was as low as 867 in 1901 and more than a century later, it was only 879 in 2011, though it improved to 900 in 2016.
As a living example of Modi's Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao (save the daughter, educate the daughter) slogan, the 30-year-old Vinesh Phogat represents an ambitious young spirit in the state. The Jats are a divided lot but what unites them all is a community sentiment particularly where honour, farming, and government jobs are involved. Women are a new force to reckon with.
It is in this context that the BJP seems to have lost the plot because its own MP, Brij Bhushan Saran Singh, was accused by Ms Phogat and some other Haryana wrestlers of sexual harassment when he headed the now-reshuffled Wrestling Federation of India. It is significant that Singh has been silenced by his party after his outburst that the wrestlers' protest was a long-term political plan by the Congress party. Phogat joined the party only recently before being announced as its state assembly candidate from Julana, which houses the family she is married to.
With the bahu-beti (daughter-in-law, daughter) politics playing a traditionally sentimental role and modern ambitions swaying the younger lot, Phogat seems strongly poised. A nationwide upsurge for the safety of women may well aid her, as will the fact that an Olympian who missed a gold medal by a whisker on technical grounds, which is a matter of great pride. Phogat has been given maces made of silver and gold in crowded celebration ceremonies in Haryana after her return from Paris.
The Congress party may have earned some more political brownie points by backing Phogat as an independent candidate rather than as a party member. However, based on the current mood, it appears that that would only have been a marginal factor either way. In my assessment, the fallout that the Congress party has had with respect to having an electoral understanding with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may prove to be costlier. AAP has considerable nuisance value, especially in urban zones.
BJP Needs a Coalition of non-Jat Hindu Communities
The pre-election mood in Haryana, both before and after the Lok Sabha elections, saw Jat rival leaders switch parties and break loyalties, showing the fluidity of voting patterns in the ambitious community.
There is more to Haryana politics than the Jats, but there is a lot this year that suggests they are at the forefront of the formidable challenge to the BJP government headed by Nayab Saini, who traditionally belongs to a community of gardeners.
In a most symbolic act, Phogat joined protesting farmers seeking better terms after returning from the Paris Olympics. The Jats are also keen about joining the army, and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's loud criticism of the Agniveer scheme that reduces long-term job security for soldiers in the armed forces is certainly a matter of concern.
Farmers from the Jat and other communities were keen participants in a long protest at the Delhi border that led to the withdrawal of the controversial farm laws proposed by the Modi government that indirectly tried to cut the government's price protection for farm commodities. There is plenty in Haryana's political memory that stands in the way of thw BJP retaining power in the state.
Sentiments like the Ram temple in Ayodhya are largely a marginal issue in Haryana. A perceived lack of progress among its farming communities and the BJP's whisper campaign to drown Phogat's protest may well rub salt in the wounds of the BJP.
Highways, urbanisation, and the rise of Gurugram as a "Millennial City" close to the national capital make Haryana a quaint mix of the old and the new. This does not mean that the BJP's traditional appeal of the Hindu sentiment and strong leadership do not matter. But from all indications, it has lost its typical Hindi belt edge -- unless there is a surprise waiting for us in next month's poll verdict.
Dalits and Muslims have traditionally been supporters of the Congress party in Haryana, and strong local leadership under the Hooda and Surjewala families makes the party organisationally formidable in the state. The BJP will have to bank on its welfare schemes and a coalition of non-Jat Hindu communities to stay in power. That is a tall order.
(The writer is a senior journalist and commentator who has worked for Reuters, Economic Times, Business Standard, and Hindustan Times. He can be reached on Twitter @madversity. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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