When the former Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) minister Swami Prasad Maurya decided to jump ship and join hands with the Samajwadi Party (SP), political pundits had dubbed the move as a game changer and a major shot in the arm for the SP.
The perception was bolstered by the fact that the party's most senior Other Backward Class (OBC) face Maurya was moving out of the BJP with his coterie of over half a dozen loyalists. Some experts had claimed that Maurya was the 'Ram Vilas Paswan' of Uttar Pradesh who manages to get a sense of which way the wind is blowing.
All speculations and analysis were put to rest after the SP, despite having done better than 2017, fell way short of the magic figure paving way for a historic win by the BJP, which came to power for a second consecutive term, bucking a trend of nearly four decades.
However, another outcome that could not miss anyone's attention was the performance of turncoats who were expected to deliver but failed.
Here, we analyse the performance of five such prominent turncoats:
Swami Prasad Maurya
Once considered to be Mayawati's close aide, Swami Prasad Maurya left the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in 2016, ahead of the Assembly elections. The BJP came to power in 2017 with a thumping majority and Maurya was given a Cabinet berth.
In February 2022, Maurya, claiming the BJP's neglect for backwards, Dalit and other underprivileged classes, quit the party and joined the SP.
However, the BJP denying ticket to his son Utkrust Maurya from Unchahar seat was also cited as one of the reasons for Maurya's exit.
Having successfully contested Assembly elections from Dalmau and Padrauna seats, Maurya fought from Fazil Nagar. In what came as a surprise, he lost the seat to Surendra Kumar Kushwaha of the BJP by a margin of over 45,000 votes. The seat dominated by Muslims, Kushwahas and Yadav voters were considered safe for Maurya but Kushwaha managed to turn the tables at the end.
Dharam Singh Saini
A four-time MLA from Saharanpur, Dharam Singh Saini, a former minister in the Yogi Cabinet, conceded the Nakur Assembly seat to Mukesh Chaudhary of the BJP. In a nail-biting contest, he lost by a meagre 315 vote.
According to an estimate, there are more than 1.2 lakh Muslim voters followed by 50,000 Scheduled Caste, 40,000 Gurjar and 35,000 Saini votes. Surveys had predicted Muslim consolidation in favour of the SP and it was expected to be an easy run for the veteran on the Muslim-dominated seat but ended up conceding in the close contest. The BSP candidate Sahil Khan bagged over 55,000 votes while the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) candidate got 3,591 votes.
Saini, former Minister of State (Independent Charge) Food Security and Drug Administration in the last government had defected to the SP barely a month ahead of the Assembly elections, following the footsteps of his former Cabinet colleague Swami Prasad Maurya.
Considered a prominent OBC face and the tallest leader in the region, Saini's surprise defeat has now put an end to his winning streak in Nakur, which was represented by him since 2002.
Naresh Saini
One of the close aides of former Congress leader Imran Masood, Naresh Saini had joined the BJP ahead of the elections. It is mostly believed that Saini moved to the BJP after Masood failed to "broker a deal" for him with the SP. Before moving to the SP, sources had earlier claimed that Masood was planning to contest from Nakur and wanted Naresh Saini to be fielded from Behat.
However, things could not materialise as per Masood's plan and Naresh Saini switched to the BJP, which fielded him from Behat seat which he had successfully contested from the Congress in 2017. However, this time Saini suffered a severe defeat at his home turf and the SP alliance candidate Umar Ali Khan defeated Saini by a margin of 37,880 votes.
The caste equation has most likely hurt Saini's prospects on the seat which has over 1.5 lakh Muslim voters, followed by a sizeable presence of Dalit, Thakur, and Saini voters. If the claim of Muslim voters consolidating is to be believed, Saini's loss does not come as a surprise.
Supriya Aron
Supriya Aron is again among one of those turncoats who jumped the ship days ahead of elections and lost. Former mayor of Bareilly, Aron has strong Congress roots. Her husband Praveen Singh Aron was the former Member of Parliament from the Congress and the couple had joined the SP ahead of the elections.
The SP fielded Aron from the Bareilly Cantonment seat, considered to be a BJP stronghold though there is a sizeable presence of Muslim voters (over a lakh) and over 75,000 Dalits, making it a closely watched contest in the region.
The Muslim consolidation, if that happened, failed to propel Aron to victory, who lost by a margin of over 10,000 to the BJP' Sanjeev Kumar.
Roshan Lal Verma
Former MLA from Tilhar constituency in Sahajahanpur, Verma had joined the SP during the massive defection of Maurya loyalists from the BJP in February earlier this year. Verma has successfully contested the seat twice – from the BSP in 2012 and on BJP ticket in 2017 where he defeated the BJP leader (then with Congress) Jitin Prasad.
In 2022, Verma was up against another turncoat Salona Kushwaha, who had joined the BJP after she was denied a ticket from the SP. Kushwaha defeated Verma by a margin of 13,277 votes, dashing hopes of Verma to retain the seat for the third consecutive time.
He lost to the BJP's Salona Kushwaha by a margin of 13,227 votes.
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