All excitement that surrounded the Gujarat Vidhan Sabha election campaign would prove a damp squib, if we are to believe the results forecast by most exit polls released after the second and final round of polling.
All exit polls, conducted by various agencies on behalf of leading news channels or newspapers, forecast not just a simple majority, but a comfortable victory for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
On an average, these polls anticipate victory for the party in the same or more number of seats that it has in the present assembly, with the Congress restricted to a maximum of 65 seats in a 182-member house.
Margin of Error/Credibility
Exit polls come with the usual disclaimers about the ‘margin of error’ and sampling discrepancies that are unavoidable in the statistical formulae used to convert projected vote shares into projected seats from the sample responses received.
In the Indian context, the credibility of the agency conducting opinion or exit polls is also an important factor, as direct or indirect influence of political parties over their results cannot be ruled out.
A complete variance between the exit polls’ forecast and the actual results in the last election to the Bihar, Tamil Nadu or Delhi assemblies are an indication of the methodological limitations of such polls. These limitations are brought about by the variances in the size, timing and type of sample chosen, and software used to process the data.
Notwithstanding this proviso about probability of major variation between the actual results and exit poll forecast, how do we make sense of the trends that have emerged? The exit polls suggest that almost nothing has changed in Gujarat in 2017 from the political scenario that prevailed in 2012, 2007, 2002 and 1997.
It means that there is a complete disconnect between actual voting behaviours and what was observed during the long election campaign.
It means that the 10 percent difference in the vote share between the two principal parties has remained intact, as has their support base among the various caste groups.
The clear message emerging from these exit polls is that nothing has changed, and nothing will change in Narendra Modi’s land of Gujarat.
Dispelling Notions on Congress’ Resurgence
The narrative can go further. The exit poll results mean that all buzz drummed up around the three young agitators – Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor, and Jignesh Mevani – was just hot air.
Reports on the resurgence of the Congress in Gujarat, a state characterised by its one-party dominance system, was just hype emanating from the ‘anti-Modism’ of the English media.
It means that all the tens of thousands of people who thronged Hardik Patel’s many rallies, and pledged to defeat the BJP in this election, over the last two years were just casual visitors who wanted some entertainment on an idle evening.
The exit polls show that Patidars have called Hardik Patel’s bluff, while Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani are headed for certain defeat.
Green Light For Gujarat Model?
These exit poll results mean that people have put their stamp of approval on the success of the so-called Gujarat model of development.
The apparent dissatisfaction of the small and medium traders over business losses due to implementation of GST was a momentary occurrence.
People are happy with the governance of the BJP, and even if they are not, they see no value in the policies promised by the Congress to purportedly accomplish high returns on the gross happiness index.
Economic issues can never sway an Indian election like sentimental issues can.
‘Modi, the Magician’
Exit polls pundits say Modi is magician who can’t be defeated in Gujarat, come what may.
His whirlwind tour of the state during the last fortnight, and the 50-plus rallies he addressed turned the tide in favour of BJP. There is no alternative to Modi in the country.
Self-respecting Gujaratis see the relentless criticism of Modi by the Congress as an insult to the whole community. And now, they have taught the Congress a lesson.
Congress offered this election on a platter to the BJP through a self-goal scored by its now-suspended leader Mani Shankar Aiyer and his “Modi is neech” remark.
Gujaratis have taught a lesson to former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for participating in the alleged confabulations on defeating Modi in Gujarat through Pakistan’s involvement.
Premature to Predict BJP Clean Sweep?
India is heading for a ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ (a Congress-less India). Well, wait. Psephology is an imperfect science and an evolving art. There is little practical point in either celebrating or bashing the exit poll results. The BJP and the Congress must wait before celebrating or giving up the fight.
We should wait for the popular vote count on 18 December to see if the actual poll results match up to the exit polls’ prediction.
It is highly likely that Gujarat’s people will throw up a more complex and interesting verdict – which cannot be explained by reference to the magical powers of a charismatic leader, or the last-minute wave he built up, or the impact of a loose statement from a now-suspended Congress leader.
Constituency-level factors, caste dynamics and personality of the candidates matter as much as the macro factors. While it is good to learn about the trends that Gujarat election exit polls predict, there is no other alternative except to wait for the actual results to be declared. Monday, 18 December, will tell us all what Gujarat thinks and feels.
(The writer is a professor of political science at Maharaja Sayajirao University, Vadodara. He tweets at @Amit_Dholakia. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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