The exit poll numbers are out, and there are no surprises here.
Exit polls predict the Bharatiya Janata Party returning to power and Prime Minister Narendra Modi securing a record third term, with the National Democratic Alliance winning 350 plus seats.
A disclaimer: exit poll numbers are not exact numbers, and we have to wait until 4 June for the final results. Exit polls satisfy our curiosity before the actual results; they are the popcorn we eat during the interval of the movie.
Exit polls are a better barometer of electoral results and trends than opinion polls, as voters are surveyed after casting their votes. Though the track record of most pollsters is not great when it comes to accurately predicting the seat tally, they are able to predict the direction of the trend pretty well.
The fortunes of the elections have moved from being one-sided to “kaante ki takkar” over a month-and-a-half period. It seemed as if the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc won the elections on social media. The close election narrative also made the markets nervous. However, the polls suggest otherwise.
If the numbers hold true, then the victory of the BJP can be attributed to three M factors: Modi, Mandir, and Mahila.
The elections became a referendum on the Modi government’s performance. For 37 percent of voters, the PM's face was the most important voting consideration in 2019. As the INDIA bloc did not project any prime ministerial faces, the BJP seems to have had a free hand amongst this section of voters.
They attempted to make the contest localised and did succeed in some states. One out of three voters of the BJP backed the party due to Modi in 2019, and this number seems to have solidified further if the numbers prove correct. While in the northern and western states, PM Modi’s popularity has peaked, his popularity seems to have increased in the southern and eastern states.
This signifies that the Mandir has had an impact not only in the Hindi heartland and in the most important state, Uttar Pradesh, where polls show the BJP gaining seats, but elsewhere too. What the realisation of the biggest promise of the BJP has done is that it has galvanised core supporters and voters.
PM Modi’s journey from south to north, touching the points of Lord Ram’s life, seems to have an impact in bridging the north-south divide. Poll of polls suggest the BJP leading against the Congress even in South India, likely opening accounts in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The issue also seems to have had a positive impact on the senior citizens category, people generally become more religious after they turn 60.
The mahila factor has emerged as one of the kingmakers in election after election. Their votes are believed to be cutting across caste and class lines due to an increase in awareness and literacy levels. They have a different set of issues than men, like law and order in the Hindi heartland. The specifically targeted schemes of PM Modi for women, like Awas Yojana, Ujjwala Yojana, construction of toilets, bank accounts, Mudra Loans, etc. have veered the female voters towards the BJP.
The key questions in the 2024 mandate are: in which state is Congress defeating the BJP handsomely, and in which state is the India bloc defeating the NDA in addition to 2019. A poll of polls suggests that there are no such states. Congress is trailing even in states like Haryana and Karnataka, where it had the highest hopes. Even in Maharashtra, polls by NDTV show that the NDA is leading in the state.
However, it’s always better to take the exit polls with a pinch of salt. Enjoy the analysis and tamasha on TV channels where the undersigned is also having fun.
(Amitabh Tiwari is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba on X (formerly Twitter). This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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